Three keys to the Broncos getting a victory over the Rams on Christmas

The Broncos want to finish strong. Well, maybe strong is too strong of a word – but the Broncos want to win another one after getting back in the “W” column against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15. In the grand scheme of things, a win over the Cardinals doesn’t amount to much but it does feel good to win. The team is staying together through these tough times, and with three games remaining, I’d like to see another win or two if possible.

In Week 16 on Christmas Day, the Broncos travel to take on the Los Angeles Rams. The defending Super Bowl champions have the same record (4-10) as the Broncos do, and they are dealing with injuries to all three of their top players. This is not a game between two good teams. Instead, it’s a game between two teams who lost their way in 2022.

Broncos head coach (for now) Nathaniel Hackett learned a bit about Rams coach Sean McVay by working under Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur (a McVay disciple).

“I’ll tell you—a lot. All those guys were together for so long, whether it be in Atlanta, Washington. They’ve all been together now. As people have separated, everybody has done the things that they thought might have been better, but there is definitely a foundation of all the things that we do as a group. I learned so much from Matt and all the different things that we do here. A lot of it is from Matt and that system. There’s a lot of similarities. We have definitely utilized a lot of stuff from Sean.” Hackett said.

Here are three keys to victory in Week 16.

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Beat Up Baker

The Rams got a much-needed shot in the arm when they acquired QB Baker Mayfield via waivers earlier this year. It didn’t take long for Mayfield to make an impression with his new team. After only a couple of days on the roster, Mayfield came into the Week 14 game against the Las Vegas Raiders and led his new team to a last-second victory with a touchdown throw to WR Van Jefferson with time winding down. Mayfield completed 22-of-35 passes for 230 yards and one touchdown in the Rams’ 17-16 win over the Raiders, adding 10 yards on four carries.

Things were incredibly exciting at that time, but Mayfield didn’t even start that game. He earned the start the next week against the Green Bay Packers and posted ‘meh’ numbers more akin to what most were expecting from the former no.1 overall pick. Mayfield completed 12-of-21 passes for 111 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in the Rams’ 24-12, Week 14 loss to the Packers. The one interception was a pick-six by Quay Walker when Mayfield was under pressure.

If you give him time, Mayfield will throw it up for grabs as he loves those ‘YOLO’ throws into coverage. However, if you pressure him then he quickly abandons his reads and will make mistakes time after time again. The way the Broncos beat the Rams is to first beat Mayfield as much as possible. After his debut with the Rams, Hackett was asked about facing Mayfield and the Rams on Christmas Day.

“I’m going to have to watch him a little bit more to get a feel for him. He’s been in a lot of places right now. I think three places just this year. I know that’s difficult, so I give him so much credit for what he’s going through. To be able to enter into a team and pick up the system and be able to operate it—I don’t think anybody understands how difficult that is. I look at Freddie Swain for us. Heck, he started [on Sunday] and he played three positions. He was all over the field. He had a catch and he had only been here for a couple days, also. Anytime you do that, it’s impressive. It will be good to see what they’re going to do today now that they’ve had a little extra time to be able to get some more of the playbook to him. That was an amazing, amazing game that he had.” Hackett said.

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Dam the Cam

We have seen the Rams roll through different running back combinations this year, but it’s RB Cam Akers who seems to be emerging as of late. With the Rams in evaluation mode for the rest of the 2022 season, Akers is getting more of a chance to prove what he can be for the future. That’s why since Week 13, when Akers got 50 percent of the snap share in the backfield, the Rams’ offense seems to be built on the legs of the third year running back.

Akers wins with power as a runner between the tackles. He’s not a flashy runner, and his no-nonsense style means he doesn’t waste a lot of motion or leave a lot of yards out there. When the Rams block it for four, and he’ll get you four. Akers is not a big play waiting to happen, but he can wear down an opponent while the game goes on. The emergence of Akers as the primary back for the Rams is an interesting turn of events given how the 2022 season began for him and the team.

He was essentially asked to stay away from the team for some time earlier this year. The Rams reportedly turned down multiple offers for Akers before the trade deadline, and it was at that time in early November when they decided to try and work things out. Akers was warmly greeted by his teammates upon his return, and he must be doing what the staff wants him to do given the large role he has for them over the last few games. Hackett knows the team must stop the run, and to do that will be the fine run-stuffing combination of ILBs Josey Jewell and Alex Singleton.

“You have to look at both those linebackers. Alex and Josey have played at a very high level. I think every team has a lot of very good football players. I think Josey is one of them for us. I think he’s done a fantastic job, both playing the run and we saw him get the picks. Just being in the same system for this long, I think it’s really helped him and him staying healthy. I know he was out a little bit early in the season, but he’s done a really fine job. Then Alex and him, they really complement each other well. They work off of each other. They understand how to communicate and pass things off to each other. It’s a great fit for both of those guys. Both those guys have played at a very high level,” Hackett said.

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Red Zone Woes Return?

The Broncos have been better in the red zone over the last two weeks. This Broncos offense has been mostly embarrassed by defenses when they have gotten near pay dirt, but all that has changed over the last two weeks. It’s exciting to think about this offense growing and evolving as the reason why they’re performing at a higher level. However, a look at the advanced data shows the reason why the Broncos have been better in the red zone versus the Chiefs and the Cardinals over the last two weeks.

Both the Chiefs (68.75 percent) and the Cardinals (69.23 percent) are the bottom two teams in the NFL when it comes to touchdowns given up when a team is in scoring position. The Broncos are doing things better over the last two weeks, but they’ve also been facing defenses that give up points like Halloween candy when an opponent gets in the red zone.

The Rams are a much different story. Only the Broncos (37.5 percent) have a lower TD allowed rate in the red zone than the Rams (43.48 percent). Simply put, the last two teams were pushovers when you get inside the 20-yard line. The Rams are like the Broncos, and they’ll play a bend-but-don’t-break defense – and that’s a defense that rarely breaks when it comes to letting touchdowns get scored inside the red zone. Yes, QB Russell Wilson will be back out there for the Broncos after missing last week’s game due to a concussion. However, things won’t be easy against this Rams defense, so let’s wait and see if the offense can continue the momentum they’ve built or if they’ll run into a brick wall in Los Angeles.

Hackett appreciates what his team has done in terms of changing the offense up in the red zone.

“The guys have done a great job. The coaching staff has put together a great plan down there. That’s the hardest place to score because of the short field. I think the guys have really owned it. They’ve really bought into it. You know that you have to make plays. It’s going to be much more difficult, but like I said, they’ve stepped up both in the run game and the pass game. I think that’s always good. It’s not one guy scoring. It’s been multiple. It’s been play passes, it’s been drop back, it’s been run game. I think that’s what you’re looking for, always,” Hackett said.

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