Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are going to dash the Broncos dreams

“Get used to disappointment.” — Westley/The Dread Pirate Roberts, “The Princess Bride”

It was always a long shot. No reigning MVP in NFL history has ever been traded for the following season. Needless to say, no back-to-back MVP winners have, either. Aaron Rodgers isn’t likely to be the first — and that means that desperate Denver Broncos fans that have held onto the slim hope that Rodgers would ride into The Mile High City as the franchise’s latest 30-plus savior should expect to have those hopes dashed within weeks.

With the unsurprising news that the Green Bay Packers are willing to make Rodgers the highest-paid player in football and manipulate the salary cap like the New Orleans Saints did for Drew Brees — as well as their ability to franchise tag star wideout Davante Adams, if necessary — there’s little reason for the league’s reigning, back-to-back MVP to leave the only team he’s ever played for.

Despite the Packers’ cap situation — they’re projected to be $48.9 million over it next season — there’s every reason to believe that can be handled. The only NFL teams in a worse cap situation are the Saints, who find themselves $74.2 million over thanks to contracts during Brees’ time as quarterback that kicked the expensive bill into a Brees-less future, when the franchise would need to rebuild anyway. That’s what the Packers have in mind.

“Absolutely, there’s a plan in place,” head coach Matt LaFleur said after the Packers were eliminated from the divisional round of the playoffs. “There’s ways to — I don’t want to say ‘manipulate’ — but there’s ways to move money, and to make sure that we get the bulk of our key contributors back.”

The Packers have gone 39-10 in the last three regular seasons, twice winning the NFC’s top seed, and falling in the conference championship twice. They’re close; much closer than the Broncos, who’ve gone 19-30 in that span while finishing last in the AFC West for the last two seasons.

Judging by his frustration following their home playoff loss to the San Francisco 49ers, it’s evident that Rodgers still wants to win. And it’s hard to argue that if the Packers commit to what LaFleur alluded to, his odds are far better to continue doing so exactly where he is.

“I think they’ve got a really good nucleus in place,” Rodgers said while accepting his second straight MVP last week. “Should I come back, there’s some things that need to get done, probably, to get the team where it needs to go.”

Rodgers clearly feels empowered in the Packers’ organization after a tumultuous offseason last spring, and their intent to back up the Brinks truck to retain his services speaks volumes to a man that clearly loves the limelight, especially if his “beautiful mysteries” can keep fans guessing — and paying attention to him. However, on the seemingly rare occasions when he does choose to be straightforward, it’s not hard to read between the lines.

“I feel like I’m at the place relationally with the Packers — in a really good place, especially with (general manager) Brian (Gutenkunst) and the way our friendship and trust has grown — where it would be a simple conversation, and whatever comes out of the conversation is moving forward,” Rodgers explained on “The Pat McAfee Show” in late January. “There’s not going to be a weird standoff, war of silence or anything. Brian and I have had good conversations throughout the year, and when it comes time to make a decision, we’ll have a conversation and that’ll be that. It won’t be a long, drawn-out process.”

Rodgers’ newfound respect for Gutenkunst, with whom he publicly — if obliquely — battled prior to the 2020 season seems to go both ways now; something that Rodgers mentioned at the NFL Awards ceremony.

“There was obviously some things that were voiced in the offseason, privately between him and myself, and I’m just thankful for the response,” Rodgers explained. “There was a lot of things that were done to make me feel really special and important, to the present, the past and the future of the franchise. And I’ve got to say that (vice president) Russ (Ball) and Brian especially had a big hand in that. And it didn’t go unnoticed. I was obviously frustrated about some things in the offseason. We had a ton of conversations, and I just felt like there was so much growth, and I’m so thankful for that. I’m thankful for the relationships — with Brian as much as anybody.”

The primary question now is not whether Rodgers wants to return to Green Bay or not, but rather if he wants to play at all.

“I think you’ve got to take some of the emotion out of it and then kind of lean into understanding what it takes to revamp and feel like what’s the best place,” Rodgers said, before notably correcting himself. “The best decision for me moving forward — not really ‘place’ — (it’s) more just, ‘What does it feel like to commit to a season if that’s what I want to do?’ The good thing is I still feel like my body is in a good place.”

It’s hard to believe that even the mercurial Rodgers would walk away from the game while still at the height of his considerable powers, even though he does turn 39 in December, and if he’s still playing, presumably, he wants to win. The hard truth for Broncos fans is that doing so is far easier to accomplish with the team he’s already steered to 41 total wins over the last three seasons to get to the cusp of another Super Bowl title.

Everything’s lined up for Rodgers in Green Bay: his team just went 13-3 and claimed the conference’s top seed (again), his top receiver will almost certainly be back if he stays, and he plays in the NFL’s weakest division — the Packers were the only team in the NFC North with a winning record in 2021. Compare that to the Broncos, who reside in the basement of the league’s best division — Denver was the only team in the AFC West with a losing record, and all three other teams would have made the playoffs if L.A. Chargers coach Brandon Staley had wanted them to — in a conference that’s loaded with brilliant young quarterback play and explosive offenses.

Would Rodgers make the Broncos better? Of course. Would they be the conference’s top playoff seed in 2022? Of course not. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert would each have something to say about that, and the last-place Broncos have needs that go beyond just the quarterback position.

So why would Rodgers leave one of the few NFC powerhouses? Money? The Packers are ensuring that won’t be a problem. Frustration with the organization? Rodgers has said that’s long gone, and now, it’s quite the opposite. Personal vendettas? The 17-year veteran has only spoken in flowery terms about Gutenkust and Ball since last season began.

The best move for Aaron Rodgers is to stay in Green Bay, and if his behavior during the season is any indication, the one thing that you can say about him with certainty is that he’s going to do what he thinks is best for Aaron Rodgers.

As for Denver? Well, as British soccer fans are fond of saying, “It’s the hope that kills you.”

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