Broncos vs. Lions: Breaking down Denver’s game plan on Sunday

Last week, the Broncos had a bad game on the road against Kansas City. The elements were against them with snow falling at Arrowhead Stadium and the team couldn’t get much going on offense because of it. The Broncos have a lack of talent that was extremely evident against the best team in the AFC West.

On Sunday, Denver can get an easy win against the Lions. They are back at home, playing in front of the crowd at Empower Field at Mile High should energize this team on both sides of the ball. The Lions have lost seven games in a row and are one of the worst teams in football. Denver needs to take care of business against an inferior opponent.

Let’s take a look at how the Broncos will attack the Lions on both sides of the ball.

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When the Broncos Run the Ball

Stats can be deceiving, but the Broncos are facing an opponent that is getting better at defending the run as the season has gone on. This is where Denver needs to hit them hard. I’ll get to the Lions stats in a bit, but the Broncos have been blocking better for the rushing attack than some would think.

They aren’t as good as last year at run-blocking, but this team is creating holes and cut-back lanes for both Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. Lindsay is averaging almost three yards per carry before contact in 2019. His 2.99 yards before contact average ranks No. 12 in the NFL so far, and it’s well above the average of 2.6 in the league. This shows how Lindsay is getting more space to work with than some realize.

This game comes down to execution on those well-blocked plays. Lindsay is the clear-cut lead back for the team, yet he still doesn’t get as much work as he should. Last week against the Chiefs, Lindsay finished with a paltry seven carries for just 32 yards. Freeman played more snaps (32) than Lindsay (23) – largely because they were down and he’s a better receiver – but only had 12 yards rushing on five carries against Kansas City.

Since Week 9, this Broncos duo has averaged just 3.7 yards per carry. In fact, Lindsay and Freeman have not combined for more than 100 yards rushing in a single contest since that time. Lindsay has reached 50 yards rushing or more in 10 of his 14 games this year. Freeman is the clear backup, and he hasn’t had more than eight carries or 40 yards in a game since Week 8.

30 for 30!

Phillip Lindsay runs it 30 yards to the house 💨 #CLEvsDEN @I_CU_Boy

📺: CBS
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Watch free on mobile: https://t.co/GjhTr4sGG6 pic.twitter.com/jV17AZyer2

— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2019

The Lions have five defensive linemen on Injured Reserve entering this game. They also put starting inside linebacker Jarrad Davis on Injured Reserve this week. They are beat up in the front seven, but they are still stout with players like Damon “Snacks” Harrison out there. The Lions rush defense has not allowed an opposing running back to top 75 yards since Week 9.

However, the Lions do get down early in games and face a lot of rushing attacks late in games when things are out of hand. If the Broncos can get an early lead, then perhaps they’ll be more successful on the ground than they have been in quite some time.

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When the Broncos Pass the Ball

Drew Lock is looking to have a bounce-back game against the Lions on Sunday. There is no denying that Lock believes in himself, so I do not doubt for a single second that he will perform better than he did against the Chiefs. Lock played in the first snow game of his football career last week and suffered from dropped passes by his receivers in addition to all the misplaced passes from the inclement weather.

That won’t be a factor on Sunday at home. Now, we need to hope that drops still aren’t a thing for the Broncos receivers. The Lions are vulnerable against the pass and the Broncos should be in attack mode in Week 16.

Courtland Sutton is the main attraction in the Broncos offense. With Lock starting across the last three games, Sutton has been targeted 22 times snaring 13 passes for 187 yards and two touchdowns. Outside of Sutton, no other wide receiver has done much of anything all season long. DaeSean Hamilton has a chance to do more against the Lions weak secondary.

With Sutton drawing cornerback Darius Slay (who is having a down year), Hamilton has the opportunity for his best game of the season. During the course of 2019, third wide receiver types and slot receivers like Randall Cobb, Breshad Perriman and Allen Lazard have all had big games against Detroit’s secondary. Hamilton only has 17 catches for 167 yards in 2019, but he could push for a 100-yard game in this matchup.

Noah Fant is turning into a star player right in front of our eyes. On a weekly basis, Fant is getting open and showing off that athleticism and run-after-the-catch ability. His production has been a bit inconsistent, but Fant has been targeted 10 times since Lock took over three weeks ago. He’s caught seven of those passes for 174 yards and one touchdown. Fant should continue to be the team’s defacto second receiver.

Noah Fant’s speed not only foils angles, but it’s hard to gauge. pic.twitter.com/EaHVlK5g1N

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 4, 2019

The Lions have allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for 280 yards or more in 10 of the 14 contests played so far this year. Only four teams in the NFL have given up as many passing touchdowns (30) as they have in 2019. They’ve already allowed 80 or more receiving yards to a whopping 14 different receivers during the season.

Obviously, this is the part of the Lions you pick on the most if you’re putting together a game plan.
In addition to giving it up through the air, the Lions get little pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They rank No. 27 in the league when it comes to pressures and sacks. Lock should be comfortable on Sunday and have plenty of time to pick apart this Lions pass defense.

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When the Lions Run the Ball

The Lions don’t have a commitment to running the football, but that might change this week. They should be getting starting running back Kerryon Johnson back from a knee injury that has caused him to miss most of this season. As of this writing, Johnson has not been activated from Injured Reserve, but he has been practicing fully for two weeks and is expected to be activated for this game.

Johnson is a talented back who runs bigger than his size (212 pounds), but he only averaged 3.3 yards per carry earlier this year in six games. The Lions offensive line did not do him any favors and may continue to struggle against Denver.

The Lions do have a nice power back in former Alabama running back Bo Scarbrough. During the last four games, Scarbrough has 301 yards and is averaging 4.2 yards per carry. Scarbrough should have a grinder role for the Lions even with Johnson back this week.

FACT: Every Kerryon Johnson highlight is better with "Carry On My Wayward Son" pic.twitter.com/t0cuGDc2Bl

— Isaac (@WorldofIsaac) September 16, 2019

Denver’s rush defense is banged up, but they should be able to slow down or stuff the Lions on the ground. The biggest impact on the Broncos rush defense over these final two games could be the suspension of strong safety Kareem Jackson. While the front seven has dealt with injuries, Jackson has helped stuff the run for the Broncos and brings an intimidating presence to the football field.

They’ll miss Jackson on Sunday, but the Lions shouldn’t be able to stick with the ground game if Denver jumps out to a lead. Even if this game is close, the Lions don’t have a consistent rushing attack and the only thing the Broncos have to worry about here is the potential “fresh legs” that Johnson could bring to the field upon his return.

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When the Lions Pass the Ball

There might be a quarterback change for the Lions if current starter David Blough doesn’t play well. Blough has not been good in three straight losses for the Lions.

Last week was a perfect example of how Blough needs to be better. The Buccaneers have a weak secondary, yet Blough only threw for 260 yards (mostly in garbage time) with zero touchdowns and two interceptions on the day. One of those interceptions was a pick-six. Needless to say, Blough isn’t very good and the Lions may actually have a quick hook for him on Sunday.

Who is his backup? Why, it’s none other than former Broncos backup Kyle Sloter. The Lions picked up Sloter off the Cardinals practice squad and he is one snap away from facing his former team. Wouldn’t that be interesting to see Sloter against Lock on Sunday?

The Lions have a player on par with Courtland Sutton in Kenny Golladay. They are built the same way in terms of size, with Golladay being a little faster, and both have produced at a high level with three different quarterbacks. Golladay has an edge in touchdowns (10) to Sutton (6) and he is the big-play threat that could shake free against the Broncos.

Watch out for two other players in this passing attack, especially if the Lions fall behind. Danny Amendola is a veteran slot receiver who should be able to get open regularly with any Broncos defender tasked with covering him. Blough looks for Amendola often, especially when he’s in trouble, and he’s clearly the best relief-valve receiver on the team. Former quarterback converted to tight end Logan Thomas might also get some looks. Linebackers Todd Davis and Alexander Johnson both struggle in coverage, so expect the Lions to try to get Thomas open from time to time against one (or both) of those two.

The @Lions are certainly thankful for David Blough! 🙌

The rookie QB finds Kenny Golladay for 34 yards. @david_blough10 @kgxix #OnePride

📺: #CHIvsDET on FOX
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— NFL (@NFL) November 28, 2019

The Broncos defense has only allowed 17 passing touchdowns through 14 games in 2019. Only six opposing quarterbacks have topped 250 yards passing in a game against the Broncos this year, and I don’t think Blough will surpass that number.

The run defense will feel the loss of safety Kareem Jackson but so will the pass defense. The Broncos are looking to get more turnovers this year because they haven’t been as dangerous in that department as I thought they would in Vic Fangio’s defense. We’ll see if they can pick off Blough a couple of times and cause the Lions to make a quarterback change.

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Summary

This is a winnable game and style points will matter against an opponent like the Lions. The Broncos don’t just want to win this game, they need to show that they can crush a clearly inferior opponent.

Working with a rookie quarterback has ups-and-downs, but on Sunday, this should be a great game for Lock. If he bests his numbers from the game against the Texans, I wouldn’t be surprised. I have him projected for roughly 280 yards passing and that should be enough to win this game. In fact, that’s a number that might actually be his floor against such a weak secondary.

I say every week to feed Phillip Lindsay, and this week is no different. The Lions statistically may look better against the run, but that’s only because they are so weak against the pass that teams don’t have to pound the rock against them. The Broncos are blocking better up front than some think and these Broncos running backs need to take advantage of those holes.

The Lions offense isn’t much of a threat either on the ground or through the air. The Denver defense should have a big day and could get some field-flipping turnovers and a pick-six or two to boost the score in their favor.

I’ve got the Broncos by a score of 27-10 on Sunday.

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All quotes and injury/practice observations obtained firsthand. Record/statistical information provided via email from the Denver Broncos unless otherwise noted. Game screenshots from NFL Game Pass. Contract and salary-cap information provided by Spotrac.com. Transaction history provided by ProSportsTransactions.com.

Follow @CecilLammey