Where the debut of Bo Nix stacked up with other Week 1 rookie QB starts in NFL history

Before Sunday’s game, the need to protect Bo Nix was apparent. And that’s not simply in terms of on-field pass protection, but in points of emphasis — specifically, as Sean Payton often pointed out, with an effective ground game and defense. The former largely failed to launch; the latter started with fervor but fizzled after halftime.

Nix didn’t get all the support he needed, but there were items he needed to fix, as well, which Payton noted Monday as he broke down Nix’s performance.

And in the end sum, he had a 47.5 passer rating that when adjusted for era, is among the bottom 10 ratings among 53 rookie quarterbacks who started their team’s first game.

Based on the performance of Bo Nix relative to a three-year norm of quarterbacks, the No. 12 overall pick pasted an era-adjusted rating of 27.3. Yes, that’s objectively shaky; that sits above only seven of the afore-mentioned 53 passers.

But it’s worth noting who those seven quarterbacks are, because they include:

• Two Pro Football Hall of Famers (Terry Bradshaw and John Elway)
• A potential Hall of Famer (Matthew Stafford)
• A Super Bowl MVP (Doug Williams)
• A passer with a solid career who guided his team to a No. 1 seed and an AFC title game (Ryan Tannehill)
• Two quarterbacks who washed out (Quincy Carter and Brandon Weeden)

At the same time, the six-best era-adjusted passer ratings for Week 1 rookie debuts include two clear hits (eventual MVPs Matt Ryan and Cam Newton), three busts (E.J. Manuel, Marcus Mariota and Robert Griffin III) and one about whom the jury remains out (Sam Darnold).

So what can you get from the stats of the debut of Bo Nix?

Absolutely nothing.

Sean Payton assesses Bo Nix’s Week 1 performance and reiterates that the team will “need to be better around him.”

“Look, certainly like I saw a three-step and a hitch instead of a five and a hitch on a certain play; we’ll get that cleaned up. But overall, when he’s climbing a… pic.twitter.com/LzMibZ3rhz

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) September 9, 2024

PASSING OFFENSE: C-MINUS

Salvaging the day were some better decisions late. During the Broncos’ lone touchdown drive — which saw no designed runs — Seattle rushed 4 and dropped 7 on all but one play. Nix did well at capitalizing off of man coverage to commit to scrambles, and this can be an effective part of his game moving forward.

The Broncos must find more opportunities for Marvin Mims Jr., whose vertical speed brings a necessary element that must be used as a threat if the Broncos are to force opposing defenses out of heavier box alignments.

RUNNING OFFENSE: D-PLUS

Specific to designed runs, the Broncos lacked consistency here. Running backs Javonte Williams, Audric Estimé and Jaleel McLaughlin didn’t effectively capitalize on the opportunities that presented themselves throughout the game, as Denver’s blockers ranked 6th in the NFL in run-block win rate according to ESPN Analytics, but couldn’t convert that into consistent gains.

PASSING DEFENSE: B-MINUS

Big plays were minimized, although the Seahawks picked at Riley Moss more as the game progressed, which was as expected. Nevertheless, Moss held his own and limited yardage after the catch. The first-half performance merited a “A” thanks to a pass rush that dominated proceedings early, but as the game went on, Denver’s effectiveness sagged in this area.

RUSHING DEFENSE: B-MINUS

A pair of missed tackles on Kenenth Walker’s 23-yard touchdown run in the third quarter proved costly and revealed fatigue that appeared to be setting in during the second half as Seattle went on a 17-0 run that effectively decided the game. If eliminating kneeldowns from the discussion, Seattle averaged 4.97 yards per carry — including 4.65 yards after halftime as the Seahawks pounded out 93 yards on 20 attempts after the break.

SPECIAL TEAMS: A-MINUS

For a second consecutive year, this unit should be a Broncos strength. Wil Lutz was perfect on his kickoffs. Tremon Smith’s alert play to knock a Riley Dixon punt back into play effectively led to 2 points, as Cooper and Zach Allen brought Zach Charbonnet down in the end zone for a safety one play later.

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