Most Week 1 rookie starting QBs lose, so, why will this be different for Broncos?

SEATTLE — For the Denver Broncos and Bo Nix, the journey begins in the Emerald City — unlike in “The Wizard of Oz,” where the green spires marked the end of the trek down the yellow brick road.

Long-term development remains a priority. But along the way, the Broncos would like to win as much as possible. And victories can build confidence, which in turn can enhance the chances of maximizing the first-contract window for Nix — which opens the moment he walks through the tunnel at Lumen Field.

At the NFL Scouting Combine in February, Sean Payton spoke with confidence of how the Broncos’ evaluation could help give them a better chance of avoiding the miscues teams make at quarterback. With that in mind, I asked Payton on Friday about his methodology and how he believed it could help Nix avoid some of the potholes that befall young quarterbacks.

“That’s a great question,” Payton replied.

And immediately, he recalled a conversation he had moments earlier with quarterbacks coach David Webb and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. The topic? Giving Nix concepts with which he’s comfortable.

“It’s important that — especially early in the season — [you focus on] what are the things that he’s really comfortable [with],” Payton said.

And that also means providing structures to help.

“If I say to the players, ‘Man, we need to play fast,’ well then, we as coaches need to give them the menu that allows that,” Payton said. “Too much can cause just some hesitation relative to what exactly we’re doing.”

And therein lies the rub. The Broncos can do plenty of things. But with a rookie quarterback, they may not be able to do everything.

“I think there’s that balance and throughout the week, last night, the night before, of how much [is too much] with a younger quarterback,” Payton said.

Of course, last year, the menu was limited, too — and that was with a 12-year veteran. The middle of the field was largely unavailable. Watching Nix this summer, that problem is gone. Still, everything the Broncos can do to support Nix can help.

And with that, Payton returned to a point he made when I asked him in April about how to aid a young quarterback.

“I get back to the two real good allies though our good defense and good running game,” he said. “When those two, are struggling then a lot more is put on that player.”

And most rookie quarterbacks who fail early don’t have that kind of support. Whether the Broncos have enough is to be determined.

Asked Sean Payton how the Broncos’ QB methodology could help Bo Nix avoid some pitfalls that befall your QBs.

A key point: “It’s important that especially early in the season, what [we focus on] are the things that he’s really comfortable [with].” pic.twitter.com/niuuWgoyUT

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) September 7, 2024

The Broncos need to be different, because the trends leading up to this weekend aren’t favorable — at least in the micro outcome of the first game for a quarterback tossed into the fire.

8

Consecutive games lost by teams with a rookie first-round quarterback making his starting debut, dating back to Joe Burrow with the Cincinnati Bengals to open the 2020 season. This includes Justin Herbert’s Week 2 start in 2020, so for Week 1 purposes only, the losing streak in this scenario is seven games.

16-33-1

The record of teams since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 when starting a rookie quarterback in their first regular-season game.

Those teams have seven-straight losses and an 0-7-1 record since Sam Darnold and the New York Jets thrashed Detroit 48-17 to open the 2018 season. Aiding Darnold’s cause were five takeaways, a defensive touchdown and another on a punt return. Such an outcome would be splendid for the Broncos on Sunday, but is not a reasonable expectation; in the last five years, just one team — Las Vegas against the Chargers last December — had two return touchdowns and five takeaways in the same game.

Since 2018, teams with Week 1 rookie starting quarterbacks are 6-18-1. There’s no real home-field advantage here; the ledger is 4-9 away and 2-9-1 at home.

32

Historically, this is the number of passing attempts that you would prefer not to reach with a Week 1 rookie starting quarterback.

Since the AFL-NFL merger, teams that had their Week 1 rookie reach 32 attempts are 2-20-1, while going 14-13 when limiting the quarterback to 31 or fewer attempts. The two exceptions in the win column were Carson Wentz in 2016 with the Philadelphia Eagles (37 attempts) and Geno Smith with the New York Jets in 2013 (38 attempts).

This plays precisely into Payton’s point about the running game and defense. To reach cruising altitude in both of those areas ensures that the Broncos can adhere to their game plan and not fall into imbalance in a furious attempt to rally.

Another number that matters: average per attempt. Teams that started rookie quarterbacks since the merger are 9-2 when those quarterbacks average at least 7.5 yards per attempt. One of the passers to do that was Archie Manning in 1971 with New Orleans.

BUT WITH A WEEK 1 BRONCOS STARTING QB, REMEMBER THIS …

Don’t fall into the trap of putting too much on the first start, either. Nine rookie quarterbacks since the merger posted passer ratings of at least 100.0 when starting in Week 1, and the eventual outcomes were mixed.

Marcus Mariota had a perfect passer rating in his Week 1 debut in 2015; he’s settled in as a long-term backup. Robert Griffin III shredded the Saints in 2012 and posted a 139.9 passer rating; injuries led him to a fast fade. And the other names on this list include Matt Ryan, Sam Darnold, Cam Newton, EJ Manuel, Mac Jones, Andy Dalton and Carson Wentz. Only Ryan and Newton became long-haul successes.

This is a beginning, and nothing more. Defenses will adjust. So will Nix and Broncos coaches.