There’s one glaring problem that the Broncos have to fix in 2021

While injuries, COVID-related issues and no offseason certainly didn't help Denver this year, one stat tells the story of the lost season

BY JAMES MERILATT

Dec 31, 2020, 6:41 AM

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When it comes to figuring out what went wrong for the Broncos this season, there are no shortage of reasons / excuses that are used to explain their 5-10 record. A rash of injuries, COVID-related issues and a young offseason that didn’t get an offseason to work together are typically cited. But in reality, one stat tells the story.

The Broncos have the worst turnover differential in the NFL and it is NOT EVEN CLOSE.

32. Broncos -20
31. 49ers -10
t-29. Eagles -9
t-29. Texans -9
28. Jags -8 pic.twitter.com/uxmFa1EYsX

— NFLonCBS (@NFLonCBS) December 30, 2020

No team in the league has a worse turnover differential than Denver. Game to game, it’s the one stat that almost always is an indicator of which team will win a game and which one will lose. And no one has been on the wrong end of it in 2020 more than the Broncos, by a wide margin.

“It’s twofold,” head coach Vic Fangio said when asked about his team’s -20 turnover differential on Wednesday. “One, we have turned it over too much. Then two, we haven’t gotten it enough.”

Simple, but true.

The Broncos have committed a league-high 32 turnovers, an average of more than two per game. That’s tough to overcome. To make matters worse, they’ve forced just 12 turnovers, the second fewest in the league. That’s a deadly combination.

“It’s been a team problem this year on both sides of the ball and obviously we have to rectify it,” Fangio added. “One is we have to protect it better on offense, that’s for sure. And then we have to find a way to get the ball out, get some interceptions, be a little more disruptive on defense to allow us to get them.”

The top seven teams in the NFL in turnover differential are in the playoff chase. Tennessee (+11), Miami (+11), Indianapolis (+10), Pittsburgh (+10), Tampa Bay (+7), Kansas City (+7) and Green Bay (+6) have all excelled in that area.

On the other side of the coin, the bottom eight team in this statistical category are days away from their offseason beginning. Behind Denver, San Francisco (-10), Houston (-9), Philadelphia (-9), Jacksonville (-8), Las Vegas (-7), Detroit (-7) and Cincinnati (-6) have all been eliminated from the postseason.

It sounds simplistic, but reversing this trend is the No. 1 thing the Broncos have to accomplish in 2021. How do they do it? Well, that’s not so simple.

For one, they need to take care of the football better. That begins with their quarterback, as Drew Lock has committed a turnover in 11 straight games.

On the other side of the ball, they need to be more aggressive. The Broncos bend-but-don’t-break defense, which gives up a lot of long drives and small chunks of yardage, hasn’t worked. Being more aggressive, employing an attack-style defense that takes more chances, is the solution.

“(We have) to not be afraid to play tight, play aggressive,” Fangio added. “Not worried so much about giving up the big one all the time.”

Easier said than done.