Broncos make second biggest jump in ESPN’s FPI rankings heading into 2025 season

ESPN's Football Power Index has the Denver Broncos ranked as the 12th-best team in the NFL heading into the 2025 season, 18 spots up from their 30th place projection a season ago

BY TRENT FINNEGAN

May 28, 2025, 10:27 AM Updated: 10:32 am

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Many eyes across the country are locked in on the Denver Broncos heading into the 2025 season as Bo Nix and Sean Payton prepare for their second year of action together. The quarterback-head coach duo, along with one of the top defenses in the league, helped lead the Broncos to their first postseason berth since winning Super Bowl 50 back in the 2015-16 season.

After the team made a big leap in the first year with Nix as the signal caller, finishing with a 10-7 record which was a six-way tie for the 10th-best mark in the league, will they be able to take another big leap this year and make it further than a blowout loss in the Wild Card Round?

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) thinks so.

The “ratings and projection model” has the Broncos ranked as the 12th-best team in the NFL heading into the 2025 season with a +1.3 rating, tied with the San Francisco 49ers. They are still a decent ways behind the Kansas City Chiefs (+5.4) and the Los Angeles Chargers (+2.1), but are far ahead of the Las Vegas Raiders (-2.0).

First look at NFL FPI ratings for the 2025 season! pic.twitter.com/k6s2fg40X7

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) May 27, 2025

This number is also the sixth-highest mark in the AFC.

The projection model also gives the Broncos more than a puncher’s chance to win the Super Bowl with 3% odds, tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Minnesota Vikings.

This projection seems about on par for where Denver’s upcoming season could head unless they shock the league and wrangle the AFC West out of Kansas City’s grasp. A Wild Card team who will have a solid season but not enough to compete with the Philadelphia’s and Buffalo’s of the league.

However, this projection is a massive leap for the Broncos compared to where the model had them at this same time a year ago. When the inaugural FPI of the 2024 season dropped last May, the Broncos were down in the dumps at 30th in the league (-4.9), only ahead of the New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers.

First look at FPI ratings for the 2024 NFL season. pic.twitter.com/6eQF5hshMS

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) May 29, 2024

The 18-spot leap from Denver was the second-biggest in the league this year, four spots behind the 22-rank leap from the NFC runner-up Washington Commanders. After having no one believing in them a season ago to now having the league wondering if they have what it takes to bring down the Chiefs, the Broncos have laid the foundation to get back to the top of the NFL. The only question that remains is, can they capitalize on the opportunity?