ESPN picks Broncos as one of five most likely teams to decline in 2026

The Denver Broncos had a magical 2025 season.

Until they didn’t.

The Broncos went 14-3 and captured the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. A memorable postseason victory in the divisional round over the Bills had everyone feeling great… for about 90 minutes.

Then head coach Sean Payton announced Bo Nix broke his ankle and was done for the year. Backup QB Jarrett Stidham and the offense were underwhelming in a 10-7 AFC Title Game loss to the Patriots.

But 2026 is a new year and Broncos Country believes this is the season in which a fourth Lombardi Trophy can come home to Denver.

It doesn’t seem like the national media feels the same way.

In the latest example, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell picked his five NFL teams most likely to decline this season and the Broncos made the list. They were joined by the Bears, Jaguars, Panthers and Patriots.

Barnwell’s full explanation is worth reading, but he points towards fortunate health, some miracle wins and a tough schedule as the biggest reasons why he thinks Denver will take a step back.

Of course, Broncos fans don’t want to hear about health after what happened to Nix in the playoffs.

“For one, (the Broncos) can’t count on all of those players being available quite as often in 2026. Though the offense was injured at about a league-average rate, the defense was the third healthiest in the NFL, per FTN’s adjusted games lost,” Barnwell writes.

Denver’s defense was relatively healthy in 2025 and they can’t afford big injuries to star players like Pat Surtain II or Nik Bonitto. Although Surtain only played in 14 games last season.

Barnwell goes through all of the Broncos improbable wins last year, including triumphs over the Eagles, Jets, Giants, Raiders, Chiefs (twice) and Commanders. It feels like nitpicking rather than celebrating the incredible comebacks engineered by Nix.

He concludes with some optimism, although still thinking the overall record will take a step back.

“Getting that trip to Arrowhead out of the way against a potentially limited Patrick Mahomes in Week 1 is probably a plus for the Broncos. Ten games against the AFC West and NFC West, though, makes me think the schedule might be a little tougher than the algorithm believes. The Broncos could challenge for a division title again in 2026, but that’s probably going to come in closer to the 10- or 11-win range this time,” Barnwell writes.

Yes, the Broncos could be a better team with a worse record. The schedule is brutal, particularly the first six games against all contenders.

But even if it’s not a 14-3 mark, instead 10-7 or 11-6, the playoffs are the focus. Broncos Country wants another Super Bowl — not a bunch of regular season accolades.

To read Barnwell’s full thoughts, click here.

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