ESPN is already projecting the Broncos to have a top-3 draft pick

The Denver Broncos don’t want to have a high pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

That would mean the 2024 season went poorly.

But after a rough debut for Bo Nix in Seattle, and Denver sitting at 0-1 after a frustrating 26-20 loss, some of that chatter has already begun.

ESPN published its first 2025 NFL Draft projection on Tuesday, and it has the Broncos picking at No. 3 overall. They have what’s called a “Football Power Index” and simulated the rest of the season 20,000 times. Based on this data, ESPN has Denver with the third worst record in the league, ahead of only the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants.

A closer look at the simulation reveals the Broncos have a 13.4 percent chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick. They also have a 50.1 percent shot to have a top-5 pick and an overwhelming 75.5 percent of the outcomes have Denver selecting in the top-10. The Broncos average draft position based on the 20,000 run-throughs sits at 7.4.

None of this should come as a surprise, but it’s only Sept. 10. No fan wants to be thinking about draft position when there’s 16 games to go, but Nix didn’t look great and the skill position players around him were underwhelming. It’s only one game, but it could be a long season.

In the AFC West, the Broncos are looking up at the 1-0 Chiefs and 1-0 Chargers. The Raiders are 0-1 after losing to Los Angeles. Denver’s first division game won’t be until Oct. 6, when they host Vegas.

To check out the full “FPI” draft simulation after Week 1, click here.

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