ESPN stat projection calls for Bo Nix to not match his rookie touchdown total

Bo Nix ended his rookie season on a sizzling pace when it came to touchdown passes.

Over his final 10 games, just three quarterbacks — Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow, Detroit’s Jared Goff and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson — had more touchdown passes than Nix, who racked up 24 in that span..

And if you include rushing touchdowns and even receiving touchdowns — because, of course, he caught a touchdown pass at Baltimore — Bo Nix’s average of 2.6 total touchdowns per game from Week 8 onward trailed only Burrow and Jackson. Such top-line statistical improvement was a reflection of his month-to-month ascent in other metrics such as EPA/play, success rate and completion percentage over expected — although his monthly improvement from September to October to November did level off a bit in December after his three-interception-day against Indianapolis.

Nevertheless, progress was palpable. Remove the regular-season finale against Kansas City’s reserves, and Bo Nix still would have ranked in the NFL’s top five quarterbacks in touchdowns produced on a per-game basis in that 10-game, 11-week span to conclude the regular season.

But that doesn’t mean he’s catching all sets of eyes — at least not quite yet.

In fact, ESPN’s Mike Clay — who annually posts statistical projections at this time of year — not only doesn’t expect Nix to maintain that pace, he doesn’t project the Broncos’ quarterback to match his 29-touchdown-pass tally from last year.

Clay forecasts Bo Nix to throw 24 touchdown passes in his second season.

WHERE BO NIX STACKS UP ON CLAY’S LIST COMPARED WITH OTHER QBS

To be fair, that is the eighth-highest projection on Clay’s list for the upcoming season, and places Nix in a tie with Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa.

The quarterbacks Clay has projected ahead of Nix in touchdown passes are Burrow, Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield Jackson, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams, Goff and Minnesota’s J.J. McCarthy — who has yet to throw an NFL pass after sitting out his rookie season due to a torn meniscus in his right knee and a pair of subsequent surgeries.

But Clay expects Nix to throw more touchdown passes than Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert.

Another notable aspect of Clay’s projection was that the numbers projected for Bo Nix calculated to a passer rating below the one he posted last year — a 93.3 figure. Clay’s predicted stat line translates to a 92.8 rating.

In Clay’s voluminous 80-page breakdown he shows that he expects some big things from the Broncos; he has them projected as the No. 5 seed in the AFC; he ranks four of their position groups in the NFL’s top 10; his projected win total for the Broncos is 9.8, higher than all but six NFL teams and just 0.2 wins behind the nine-time defending AFC West champions, the Kansas City Chiefs.

He’s bullish on Zach Allen, who he predicts to rank second in sacks among interior defensive linemen. But he’s not as keen on edge rusher Nik Bonitto, who he projects to finish with 8.1 sacks, which would place him 19th among edges; in 2024, Bonitto ranked third at his position in sacks.

You can find Clay’s full projection PDF file — including more predictions for Bo Nix and other Broncos — here.

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