Report: Colts open to trading Taylor, talking with multiple teams

It looks like Jonathan Taylor is on the trade market.

Per an ESPN report Saturday morning, the Indianapolis Colts are now open to the idea of trading the three-time Pro Bowler and former first-team All-Pro running back, with “active and ongoing” talks with “multiple teams.”

Per ESPN, the Broncos are among the teams to express “at least some level” of trading for Taylor, who led the NFL in rushing touchdowns last year and has surpassed 1,400 rushing yards in each of the last two seasons.

A workhorse back, Taylor has averaged 20.8 touches per game over the course of his career, including 22.4 so far this season, 21.7 last year and 22.9 two years ago. He also boasts a 4.8-yards-per-carry average for his career and is an effective pass-catching back, with a career average of 38.1 receptions and 307.7 receiving yards per 17 games, to go along with his career rushing tally of 8,185 yards — a 1,529-yards-per-17-games pace.

THE QUESTION ON TAYLOR? THE IMPACT OF HIS WORKLOAD

Taylor has been a primary, “bell-cow”-type running back going back to his three seasons at the University of Wisconsin, when he racked up 926 rushing attempts and 968 total touches during 41 games there.

At just 27 years of age, Taylor has 2,863 total touches over the last 10 seasons. For comparison’s sake, that’s 285 more touches over that same span than Derrick Henry had over the 2012-21 seasons that culminated with his age-27 season — a tally that included 462 rushing attempts in his high-school senior season.

So, in evaluating the value of any potential trade, the accumulated workload and its effect on Taylor’s future outlook must be taken into account. He also has another two years left on his contract.

But a trade for Taylor would be very much about the NOW, of course. And objectively, Taylor sits among the NFL’s elite running backs, with 40 touchdowns over 38 games played since the start of the 204 season.

He’s never failed to average at least 4.4 yards per attempt in any of his full seasons prior to this one. And the more he runs, the better his team does; Indianapolis is 15-2-1 all-time when he gains at least 115 rushing yards.

BRONCOS RUSHING ATTACK HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT

Meanwhile, the Broncos’ ground game hasn’t been what the team hoped for this year. Denver ranks 25th in yards per attempt, 23rd in success rate and 15th in EPA per play to date this season, but is a credible 12th in rushing DVOA.

The one running back who has played all seven games to date this season, seven-year veteran J.K. Dobbins, is off to an uncharacteristically rough start, averaging 3.4 yards per attempt with no runs of at least 20 yards. Dobbins has never failed to average at least 4.6 yards per carry in any of his previous seasons with at least 10 rushing attempts.

In the second half of last Sunday’s game, Dobbins had two carries for three yards — including a touchdown — while Coleman had seven attempts for 49 yards. Over the course of the entire season to date, Broncos running backs have averaged just 3.64 yards per attempt as a collective.

The corps has also depot with multiple injuries Jonah Coleman missed four games due to an ankle sprain before returning last Sunday and averaging 6.0 yards per attempt on nine carries against the Arizona Cardinals. RJ Harvey landed on the injury report Thursday with a knee problem and will miss his second game of the season on Sunday. And Tyler Badie is on injured reserve with a thumb injury.

For production and health reasons, the Broncos might need an addition at running back — although Coleman could provide what they need given the spark he’s delivered against Jacksonville and Arizona. The best play long-term could be to give Coleman some extensive run in the next two games prior to the trade deadline to see if the rookie fourth-round pick can provide the solution the Broncos need.

But given the Colts’ trades of Quenton Nelson and DeForest Bucker earlier this week, they may want to make a swap of Taylor sooner rather than later.

IMPACT OF SUNDAY’S GAME

The result against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday could impact the Broncos’ willingness to surrender significant draft capital in a pre-deadline trade for a standout such as Taylor.

A loss to the Chiefs will put the Broncos two games back of the Chiefs in the loss column, with Kansas City in control of the tiebreaker, placing Denver in need of plenty of help in order to win the AFC West and earn the postseason home game that goes along with it.

A second-place finish in the division would ensure that the Broncos likely need to win three road games to make the Super Bowl, unless upsets decimate the postseason field and eliminate every division winner. Since the NFL went to a three-round postseason format in 1978, just five of 96 teams have made it to the Super Bowl by winning three road games — and one of those, Tampa Bay, did so in the COVID-19 year when few to no fans were in the stands, eliminating the noise factor that provides the most consistent tactical edge when having home-field advantage.

Sean Payton wouldn’t call Sunday’s game a “must-win.” But for the Broncos’ willingness to make a massive deal in order to push the team over the top to having a world-championship-worthy equation, it just might be.

A trade for Taylor that forces the surrender of significant draft capital might not be as palatable if the Broncos are staring at the potential of needing three road wins to get back to their first Super Bowl since Peyton Manning’s NFL farewell.

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