Coach Prime, Colorado marked as one of biggest fallers in preseason FPI rankings

The calendar has turned to June, which means that college football is one step closer to being back in action. For Coach Prime and the Colorado Buffaloes, there is much anticipation heading into the 2025 season to see if they can replicate the success they had in 2024 without the two best players from that team coming back to Boulder.

ESPN’s Football Power Index dropped this week, “a predictive rating system that estimates each FBS team’s strength (in points per game relative to the national average) on offense, defense and special teams, making adjustments for starters lost, recruiting talent and other personnel changes.” Once the model gets its final numbers for each team, it runs 20,000 simulations based on the schedule for every single team in the FBS.

After the Buffs finished the 2024 season at No. 23 in the ranks, they opened up the 2025 season in a different universe, sliding in at No. 48 on the board. The entire Big 12 Conference received little-to-no respect from the model as a whole, as Kansas State is the highest ranked team at No. 20. The conference has just 1.2 projected playoff teams and 1.7% chance to win the title, both of which are the lowest marks among the four power conferences.

For Coach Prime’s new-look Buffs, they were one of the biggest fallers in the ranks. Their 25-spot drop is the seventh-largest drop among all teams in the country, and the second-largest among teams in the Power Four, trailing only Louisville (dropped 29 spots).

The Buffs have an FPI rating of 4.2, which ranks 11th in the conference and behind teams they beat a season ago in Utah, UCF, Baylor and Texas Tech. They have a 69.5% chance to win six games and make it to a bowl game in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2005, a 2.4% chance to win the conference and a 3.1% chance to make the College Football Playoff.

Even worse, the metric has them tied with the underachieving Florida State Seminoles, who arguably had the worst and most disappointing season in the country last year with their 2-10 record. The disrespect is loud with that mark.

Offseason losses were attributed to why Coach Prime and Colorado dropped so far in the rankings, as they will be without Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter, Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year Shedeur Sanders, Big 12 Defensive Newcomer of the Year BJ Green II, and more. While they went out into the transfer portal and tried to replace as many guys as they could as they’ve done in every offseason of the Prime era, the departing players leave a massive hole in the roster and huge shoes to fill.

Throughout the summer, the quarterback battle between Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter and true freshman Juju Lewis will be the story as the Buffs try and find the successor to Sanders. With a number of other new faces slated to start when Georgia Tech comes to town on Aug. 29, only time will tell whether the FPI was right or wrong about the black and gold.

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