As Broncos rise into ranks of legitimate contenders, a weighty draft-room debate lurks

The Denver Broncos can go into a draft thinking about final pieces.

They can consider their potential picks on the basis of what will help them win now — and not just win games, but potentially win a championship.

Sure, they could SAY these things over the previous eight years, but such words had scant basis in reality. They’d be hopeful — or perhaps desperate, the words of coaches and executives straining to hold fast to their positions lest they be swept away for a new administration to try their hand at reversing the franchise’s descent from a four-decade run of relevance that was only interrupted for brief, annoying interludes.

For the Broncos of several years ago, the notion of winning now was about survival.

Now it’s about something much bigger.

But that brings about a fascinating draft debate, especially when the draft winds into Day 2, when the draft works its way into the gray area, mixing players expected to contribute immediately with those who will have a longer runway into the lineup.

The gestation time is what separates first-round-caliber tight ends like Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland from Day 2 tight ends such as Harold Fannin Jr. — who doesn’t even turn 21 until July — and Elijah Arroyo, who didn’t contribute regularly at the University of Miami until last season. Wherever they land, they’re more likely to be bit players than stars in the opera that is the NFL’s 106th season.

Fannin, who played in the Mid-American Conference, and Arroyo are likely higher-variance prospects than some of their Day 2 brethren at the position who bring more extensive high-level college experience to the fold, players such as Oregon’s Terrance Ferguson, Texas’ Gunnar Helm and LSU’s Mason Taylor.

Ferguson, Helm and Taylor might help you more NOW. Fannin and Taylor could pay off bigger in 2027.

These sorts of debates will fill draft rooms of teams looking for pieces to take them over the top — including that of general manager George Paton and the Broncos.

FOR BRONCOS, IT’S BALANCING ‘NOW’ AND ‘NOW ON’

“I mean, we just had a conversation about this,” Paton said Thursday when the topic arose at a pre-draft media press-conference Zoom call.

“We were talking about some interior D-linemen and, and there’s one that’s ready to roll. We think he’s ready to play next year. And then there’s another one that man, you may hit on him.”

 

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The decision will come down to information and input. It’s not a choice that will be made next Thursday, Friday or Saturday — instead, the decision is made now or in the coming days as the Broncos set and stack their board.

“And I think it’s important that you go around the room, you talk to the assistant coaches, you talk to the scouts and what’s the vision for this player, year one, year two and beyond,” Paton explained. “So you have a lot of those discussions and then you dig into the mental — and the makeup of these players and do they have the makeup, if they are raw, to take that next step, the work ethic to take that next step?

“And so you dig into all these, you get into the analytics and they help you break a tie, a cluster. And so, that’s kind of how we go about it.”

The fact that Paton mentioned defensive line bears noting, too.

“It’s a pretty good draft for interior defensive linemen,” Sean Payton said a few minutes later.

It would be a shock if the Broncos did not add a defensive lineman to capitalize on the depth of the draft, and also with an eye toward long-range planning; they have three defensive linemen with expiring contracts who would hit unrestricted free agency in 2026: John Franklin-Myers, Malcolm Roach and Zach Allen.

Work on potential extensions is expected to begin after the draft — but adding a D-lineman in the early rounds would change the dynamic and the long-range planning.

And that again plays into the Broncos’ discussion, because perhaps on the defensive line, a plug-and-play lineman with a lower long-term ceiling isn’t what’s needed, because that player would be a rotational contributor at most in 2025.

The higher-variance — and thus, higher-ceiling — prospect might be the one to add, with the focus on development.

But then if injuries strike the defensive line, that player might be forced into action sooner than expected, in which case you might wish that you drafted the player who was, as Paton said, “ready to roll.”

For a rebuilding team thinking two or three years into the future, this wouldn’t be a debate.

For a Broncos side that fancies itself a contender right now — and carries the expectation that another elimination in the wild-card round won’t be an acceptable outcome this time — it’s the hottest topic in the meeting rooms and hallways of Broncos Park Powered By CommonSpirit.

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