The Broncos’ one-score magic has an expiration date

The Denver Broncos finished last season with a 14-3 record, the AFC’s top seed and an AFC Championship Game appearance. By every meaningful measure, it was a dominant campaign.

But buried inside those numbers is a truth that the morning show believes deserves far more attention than it is getting, and far more urgency as training camp begins.

On a recent edition of “Stokley and Evans, with Mark Schlereth” on 104.3 The Fan, Mike Evans laid out the statistical reality that should give Broncos Country pause heading into the new season.

“The Broncos trailed in 15 games last season. Before last year, no team had ever trailed in 15 games and still gone on to win 14 games during the season,” Evans said.

That is a staggering piece of history. Denver didn’t just win close games last season, it won them at a rate that had literally never been accomplished before.

The Broncos went 11-2 in one-score contests, tying the all-time record for most one-score victories in a single season. Bo Nix’s fourth-quarter heroics, the defense’s ability to tighten in critical moments and a roster-wide refusal to fold under pressure all contributed to one of the most remarkable clutch seasons in NFL history.

But Evans made clear that treating last year’s results as a sustainable model is a dangerous game.

“Law of averages, no matter how much you look at this team and their ability to win close games. At some point you are really really playing with the odds, if you think you’re gonna be able to do that again,” Evans said.

Close games are, by definition, coin flips influenced by small margins. A missed field goal, a dropped interception, a spot on a fourth-down measurement. The Broncos landed on the right side of those margins at a historic rate. Expecting that to happen again isn’t confidence; it’s gambling against mathematics.

The implication for training camp is straightforward. Denver needs to find ways to build larger leads, close out games earlier, and reduce the number of contests that come down to the final possession. The roster has proven it possesses the composure to win tight games. But relying on that trait as a primary strategy rather than a last resort is a formula that regression will eventually punish.

The Broncos were historically good in close games last year. Evans just wants to make sure the organization understands that history rarely repeats itself twice.

Related

Sean Payton got emotional when Drew Brees asked him to present at Hall of FameA Sean Payton favorite is on the open marketWhat an ‘Acclimation Day’ is, and other big things from Broncos campSean Payton hasn’t ‘stood up there with the Lombardi Trophy’ in front of 2026 BroncosSean Payton confirms he was going to fake a punt in OT against the BillsSean Payton reminds everyone that Bo Nix won 14 games last season