It’s hard to imagine the Nuggets taking on the repeater tax next season

On a recent episode of “The Drive,” co-host Zach Bye made a bold claim; he said he will literally crack an egg on his face if the Denver Nuggets pay the luxury tax for the 2026 season. And after looking at the numbers, you can understand why he’s so confident.

The Nuggets are currently over both the luxury tax and the second apron after matching the offer sheet Oklahoma City extended to Spencer Jones, pushing their payroll to roughly $223.5 million for next season. That alone is expensive, but the real danger is the repeater tax. Any team that goes over the luxury tax in three out of four seasons gets hit with an additional, far more punishing bill.

Denver barely dodged repeater status last year by trading Hunter Tyson at the deadline, slipping just under the tax line. That means they can avoid the repeater penalty again, but only if they get under the tax this season.

Most fans assume the Nuggets should simply pay whatever it costs to keep a contender around the best player in franchise history. But how much money are we actually talking about?

Assume, for argument’s sake, that they sign Peyton Watson to a $23 million per season deal. That would push their payroll to around $246 million. According to ESPN’s Bobby Marks, that would trigger a repeater tax bill of $231 million, essentially doubling their salary obligations.

As Zach puts it, “The luxury tax bill is much more relevant to the Denver Nuggets than the punishments that the second apron gives you.”

If Denver actually paid that estimated $231 million, it would obliterate the largest luxury tax ever paid in American sports — the $169 million the Los Angeles Dodgers shelled out last year in MLB’s Competitive Balance Tax.
That’s why Bye believes a salary dump is coming.

“I think they’re shedding salary,” he added, noting that Denver is currently a second-apron team with the highest projected tax bill of all-time — and still has two roster spots left to fill, which could push the number even higher.

Bye isn’t convinced ownership will stomach that kind of financial hit for a team that bowed out in the first round.

“For a team that lost in the first round, I don’t buy it and I’ll believe it when I see it. And if I do crack that egg on my face, I’ll have a huge smile because this ownership group would’ve went all in in (Nikola) Jokic’s prime, and that’s what you should do.”

He knows what he thinks the Nuggets should do — he just doesn’t believe they’ll actually do it.

But let’s be honest: Nuggets fans everywhere are rooting for one outcome. Not just because it would mean Denver is fully committed to winning in Jokic’s prime, but because everyone also wants to see Zach Bye crack an egg on his face.

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