Pro Football Focus simulation gives Broncos best chance to win Super Bowl

Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton said this summer he thought his team could win the Super Bowl.

A lot of people scoffed at the idea, but no one is questioning it now.

The 13-3 Broncos control their own destiny to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Beat the shorthanded Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday and the road to Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara will go through Denver.

And it looks like the analytics sites are catching up to Payton’s prediction, including perhaps the most popular one out there in Pro Football Focus.

PFF released its latest Super Bowl simulation on Tuesday and they give the Broncos the highest chance in the NFL to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at 17 percent.

Best odds to win Super Bowl:

Broncos – 17.0%
Seahawks – 13.9%

See complete playoff odds here ⬇️https://t.co/OCpJjPz1uj

— PFF (@PFF) December 30, 2025

Not only is it incredible that Denver has the best odds in the league, but the Seahawks being next is interesting. Super Bowl XLVIII still leaves a bad taste in the mouth of Broncos Country, so a shot at revenge after that 43-8 drubbing all these years later would be sweet.

PFF adds that Payton’s squad has a 30 percent chance of reaching the big game in their various simulations. If the path goes through Empower Field at Mile high with the Broncos being the No. 1 seed, that would take two home victories to accomplish.

After the Broncos at 17 percent and Seahawks at 13.9 percent to win the Super Bowl, it’s the Rams (12.3 percent), 49ers (nine percent) and Bills (8.7 percent) rounding out the top-5. The Texans, Patriots and Jaguars are next in line, so a plethora of AFC contenders.

Are the computers always right? No. But it can’t hurt that they’re on the side of the Broncos. To see the latest simulations from PFF, click here.

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