Why is Michael Penix Jr. trending out of Round 1?

Michael Penix Jr. could be the most polarizing of the potential drafted quarterbacks this year.

Yes, he can make pinpoint throws with timing. Yes, he has a track record of success going back to Indiana University in the Big Ten. And his football intelligence is impressive, as he demonstrated during Senior Bowl week.

But he also has the longest injury ledger of any quarterback who could be taken in this year’s NFL Draft.

And while his performance under heavy pressure in Washington’s national-championship game loss to Michigan last month is just one game, it still provides some illumination on why Penix doesn’t show up on many first-round mock drafts in the last few weeks as the NFL Combine in Indianapolis approaches next week, as NFL on Fox and DenverSports.com analyst Mark Schlereth notes.

Yes, Penix does fit Sean Payton “perfectly” in the eyes of some pundits, including Fox Sports college-football analyst Joel Klatt, who briefly played for Payton in New Orleans 18 years ago.

.@NFLonFOX's @markschlereth believes some of Michael Penix Jr.'s work was making mincemeat of bad Pac-12 defenses, as he told @MikeEvans1043 on @DenverSportsCom:

"I’ll downgrade Pac-12 defenses. I think they’re horrible. … There are a lot of things that aren’t transferrable." pic.twitter.com/cweKv2ffcw

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) February 20, 2024

But Schlereth sees something different.

DOES THE COMPETITION MICHAEL PENIX JR. FACED IN THE PAC-12 MATTER?

In Schlereth’s estmation, it does.

“Guys that come from smaller schools — what do you always hear about those guys? ‘Well, he didn’t go against NFL-quality opponents. He played at a small school. It’s an automatic downgrade,” Schlereth said.

He noted that the same principle should apply to quarterbacks in the Pac-12, which will dissolve in its viable state after the current academic year. Only Oregon State and Washington State will remain, and they will effectively farm out to other conferences.

“Hey, I’ll downgrade Pac-12 defenses. I think they’re horrible. I think that conference, with the way they play on the offensive side of the ball — where it’s all spread and it’s all, ‘let’s just throw it around the ballyard in empty (backfield formations)’ — those things, just find my best one-on-one against your third corner, who can’t play, who will never sniff the NFL, let’s just throw it to that guy’ — there are a lot of things that aren’t transferrable,” Schlereth said.

Of course, USC’s Caleb Williams is widely considered to be the No. 1 overall pick — and he matriculated in the Pac-12, as well.

But regarding Penix, Schlereth sees the national-championship game against a Michigan defense blessed with NFL-caliber prospects as illuminating.

“And I’m telling you, I see a lot of things that would concern me if I was in a front office. Yeah, it’s one game. I looked thoroughly through one game. But it was the national-championship game against a team that I think has a lot of NFL talent on it, and I thought he was horrible,” Schlereth said.

Another item of note on Penix is his unorthodox delivery.

“That arm angle — a little 3/4-arm angle,” Schlereth said. “He’s going to get all kinds of balls batted (at the line of scrimmage) in the National Football League.

“I don’t see a lot of what I would say is big-time, transferrable NFL throws.”