Broncos passing game faces huge challenge in Chiefs defense

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — For the Broncos, one week, it’s Sauce Gardner. The next week, it’s a group of lengthy, physical cornerbacks from Kansas City.

For Marvin Mims Jr. and Brandon Johnson, Denver’s ascendant young pass catchers, the challenge is clear.

“They have really physical corners — probably the most physical group we’ve played against,” Mims explained Tuesday in the Broncos’ locker room at Centura Health Training Center.

“They’ll press you. They’re not scared to get up and try to jam you. But we’re watching them, scheming them up. But that’s probably the biggest thing, the biggest difference in their secondary.”

Marvin Mims Jr. on whether the physicality of KC’s corners could create some opportunities: “It could. Depending on how we handle it, and how we see it. They blitz a lot from their corners, too … it’s going to be a big deal for us — & it could create a lot of opportunities.” pic.twitter.com/YWSDq0GtXj

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) October 12, 2023

Johnson concurred.

“Their corners definitely play tough,” he said. “A lot of junk jam, things of that nature. A lot of Cover-4. Traditionally, that’s what you see from Kansas City.”

But that style of play creates an opportunity.

“It could. Depending on how we handle it, and how we see it,” Mims said. “They blitz a lot from their corners, too, so, just us calling it, communication is going to be a big thing — and it’s going to be tough, just because of how loud it gets at night.

“But, yeah, it’s going to be a big deal for us — and it could create a lot of opportunities.”

That being said, opponents have struggled to capitalize in the last two seasons. And that’s where this week’s pregame Three Numbers begins.

4.94

The yardage allowed per pass play by the Chiefs defense the last two seasons. This is the third-best figure in the NFL. Only the Eagles and Saints are better.

In terms of total passing yardage allowed by the Chiefs, they are 11th-best, allowing 196.1 passing yards per game since the start of the 2022 season. But they see more pass plays than almost anyone in the NFL — an average of 39.6 per game. Only the Titans see more pass plays against them. For Kansas City, it’s a function of playing most of their games from ahead, forcing teams into pass-intensive mode.

Their coverage also sets things up for their front seven. With an average of one sack every 12.8 pass plays, the Chiefs have the seventh-best sack rate in the league since the start of last season. (Denver, by comparison, ranks 27th, with one sack every 16.8 pass plays.)

3

Number of teams since 1990 that made the playoffs after starting 1-5.

That’s 3 out of 119 teams — a success rate of 2.5 percent, and roughly a 1-in-40 chance of qualifying for the postseason. But that being said, the three teams to pull this off are relatively recent ones, all in the last eight seasons: the 2015 Chiefs, 2018 Colts and 2020 Washington Football Team.

But the outlook is indeed bleak at 1-5. Which is why the rumblings of a teardown if the Broncos can’t reverse their spiral — with perhaps another deal coming before Week 7, let alone before the Oct. 31 trade deadline — make logical sense.

1-21

The record of teams that were road, double-digit underdogs in Thursday games since the NFL began scheduling contests on Thursday in earnest during the 2006 season.

Overall, double-digit road underdogs are 61-406-1. On game days other than Thursday, the record is 60-385-1 — a winning percentage of .136. That’s obviously poor. But that’s still better than the .045 rate that double-digit road underdogs have on Thursday since 2006.

What’s more, visiting teams that are at least 10-point underdogs have lost 20 consecutive games.

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