The Denver Broncos could finally be at the brink of a teardown

DENVER — In the last four weeks, the Denver Broncos have:

• Turned Sam Howell into Fran Tarkenton;
• Turned Tua Tagovailoa into Joe Montana;
• Turned Justin Fields into Patrick Mahomes (for three quarters, at least);
• Turned Breece Hall into Terrell Davis.

Three of their four losses this season are to teams with losing records. The Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders haven’t won since walking into Empower Field at Mile High and strutting out victorious.

They have three home losses already. Only twice before in the 63 previous seasons of Denver Broncos football did the team lose its first three home games. Once was in the COVID-19 season of 2020, with one game behind closed doors and the the next two at limited capacity. The other instance was in 1994.

And in a 31-21 loss to the New York Jets, the Broncos defense was again physically manhandled by an opposing offensive line and running game. Just as it was in Chicago last week and Miami the week before. The Broncos welcomed Justin Simmons and Josey Jewell back to the starting lineup, and nothing changed. Lanes remained massive.

Meanwhile, the offense’s second-half surge against Chicago last week looked more like the aberration. While the Broncos did eventually muster a second-half touchdown and two-point conversion, their first five drives after halftime netted a collective loss of 18 yards. Two of their second-half series ended in fumbles, including the game-sealing loose football jarred loose from Russell Wilson as he attempted to scramble.

And with that, the Broncos sunk to 1-4.

It’s DEFCON 1 in #BroncosCountry.

The run D is the worst in club history. The O was anemic for much of the second half. If they’re not at sell mode yet, they need to be there if they can’t stop a 15-game losing streak to KC.

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— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) October 9, 2023

THE DENVER BRONCOS ARE AT THE BRINK OF SELL MODE

A defeat Thursday to Kansas City — the defending world champions, the club to which the Broncos have lost 15-consecutive games — will give the team its worst 6-game start in franchise history, matching the dubious standard set three times in the 1960s and again in 1994.

“I mean, we’ve gotta win this one,” safety Justin Simmons said. “We say that every week. But it’s gonna be a really, really big one for us. And kind of a turning point for the season.”

More than that, really.

Now they sit at the brink of something that could be as necessary as it would be painful, because it could seal the path to the club’s seventh-straight losing season. In other words, they would have as many losing seasons since Gary Kubiak’s retirement from head coaching as they did in the previous 44 years.

And that necessity would be this: It’s time to tear down and rebuild.

That said, there are some untouchable pieces. Pat Surtain II, for example, won’t be going anywhere. The same may not be true for others.

Randy Gregory already landed in San Francisco, although the circumstances were unique. And yes, the Broncos have dealt near the trade deadline before. In fact, the common thread of most of their losing seasons of recent vintage has been to ship a franchise cornerstone out for draft compensation. It began with the late Demaryius Thomas in 2018, followed by Emmanuel Sanders in 2019, Von Miller in 2021 and Bradley Chubb last year.

Had the COVID-19 pandemic not yielded a bushel of protocols that dampened the 2020 trade market, the Broncos might have been sellers at the league’s midseason flea market then, too.

A win Thursday could change that, obviously.

Yeah, you’re probably laughing at the notion. I can’t blame you. The last time the Broncos defeated the Chiefs, U.S. gas prices averaged $2.37 a gallon. They’re the defending world champions. But they’re also a team that had to squeak by the Broncos in the last three meetings in the series — one-score games all.

But that’s probably all that stands between the Broncos and the smoke about trade rumblings becoming fire — not quite a fire sale, but a substantial set of moves with the future and clearing the deck in mind.

It might seem to be a panicky course of action. But the Broncos aren’t just losing. They’re being mauled up front — specifically on defense.

IT STARTS IN AN OLD-SCHOOL WAY: RUN AND STOP THE RUN

Much has changed in football, but something remains true: If you run and stop the run, you enhance your chances of winning. If you can’t, it usually reveals a team that is foundationally, fundamentally lacking.

The funny thing is, the Denver Broncos ran well early. Jaleel McLaughlin was nearly unstoppable in the game’s early stages. Shoot, the offense looks brilliant at times. Four of their five game-opening drives ended in touchdowns. That was unimaginable in the Pat Shurmur play-calling era of 2020-21.

But in the third and fourth quarters, Denver’s offense retreated and vanished. By the time it rematerialized, the margin for error was non-existent, and when protection broke down on Russell Wilson during the final series, the Jets had the Broncos in checkmate.

On the first four series of the second half, the Broncos opened with a run each time. Only once did they follow with a second-down run — and that was a gadget play, an end-around for which the timing of the pitch to Marvin Mims Jr. was a smidgen off … and a smidgen is all it takes to ruin a possession.

“I have to be more patient relative to how we run the ball, and it was that type of game,” Payton said.

The problems are more profound on the defensive side. With 755 rushing yards allowed in the last three games, the Broncos now officially have their worst three-game rushing stretch in club history — and the fourth-worst for any NFL team in the last 40 years.

Time after time, the Broncos get mauled up front. Breece Hall’s 72-yard touchdown gallop was the encapsulation of this; Hall had a massive hole once Mike Purcell was pushed aside, and the Broncos barely came close enough to lay a finger on him.

“It’s multiple things. Obviously, today, losing D.J. [Jones] hurt early. The next guy has to step up and do that,” Simmons said.

Justin Simmons on the run defense and what’s going wrong: “It’s multiple things. Obviously, today, losing D.J. [Jones] hurt early. The next guy has to step up and do that. I think teams are just getting creative and we’ve just gotta have better response. …” pic.twitter.com/djv10sYbLN

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) October 9, 2023

Of course, the Broncos struggled to stop the run with Jones on the field, too. That became evident against the Dolphins and Bears.

“I think teams are just getting creative and we’ve just gotta have better response,” Simmons added. “Ten guys can do the right thing, but if one guy is not, you can get gashed in the run game, and I think we saw that a little bit today, and maybe over the past few weeks.“

This is hard to change without changing the roster — or the defensive play-caller. Which is why the calls for Vance Joseph’s position grow louder from the stands with every passing week. The issues began late last season, of course. But the problems seem to multiply each week.

Now, the Broncos sit with another season spiraling. They’re 4-15 since the start of last October. They’re 6-16 since Wilson’s arrival. And they’re 6-20 since the fork-in-the-road game against Cincinnati in December 2021, when two franchises diverged in a yellow wood, as Robert Frost might have written.

The Jets offense accounted for 22 points Sunday — its highest total of the season. They ran for more yards Sunday than they had in their previous three games combined. Further, while Wilson was solid and looked spry escaping from pressure — he found himself caught four times, including the strip-sack that decided the game.

And they could be just one more defeat from mashing the button on an in-season sale.

The Denver Broncos are a club on the brink.

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