There isn’t much left from the 2016-18 Broncos drafts, and that’s been part of the problem
Apr 3, 2023, 11:23 PM | Updated: Apr 4, 2023, 12:47 am
One common trait of many free-agency splashes is this: It’s usually necessary to correct mistakes made from prior drafts.
And from the three drafts immediately following Super Bowl 50, the Broncos have little left. From 26 draft picks, just four remain in orange and blue. And one, 2018 Round 2 wide receiver Courtland Sutton, has been the subject of trade rumors this offseason.
Now that we are five seasons removed from the most recent of those three drafts, it’s fair to evaluate.
To take guesswork and opinion out of it, let’s use the approximate-value (AV) metric compiled by Pro-Football-Reference.com. Adjusted for the data from each year, it seeks to put one number of value on each NFL player’s contribution.
And the numbers confirm what the eyes and heart know: Denver’s 2016-18 drafts weren’t up to par. The Broncos ranked 24th in AV per pick and 20th when adjusted for draft capital, using the Jimmy Johnson model of draft-pick value.
Yet there are other teams that did worse. Yes, the 2016 trade up for Paxton Lynch was the whiff that kept on giving — as the Broncos recused themselves from the quarterback discussion in the following two drafts.
Those drafts yielded Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson — none of whom went in the first five picks. And the Broncos had Allen and Jackson on the board when they chose in 2018.
But both the Chargers and Raiders were worse than the Broncos.
The Raiders ranked dead last in AV per pick, extracting just 5.96 points of value from their 25 selections from 2016-18.
Meanwhile, the most productive teams in those three years?
Sean Payton’s New Orleans Saints.
Despite having 19 picks — the third-fewest in the league from 2016-18 — the Saints got 19.2 points of AV per draft choice. No one was better. Adjusted for the quality of their draft-pick capital, the Saints ranked 10th.
But relative to draft-choice capital, the Chiefs got more from their 2016-18 picks than anyone else. It wasn’t just Mahomes, it was Chris Jones, Tyreek Hill and, to a lesser degree, Derrick Nnadi and Kareem Hunt. All helped the Chiefs maximize their capital.
They did what the Broncos couldn’t. And that — plus a lack of draft capital this year — left Denver turning to free agency to make up the difference.
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