If Saints demand two first-rounders for Sean Payton, Broncos should just say, ‘No’

For the Walton-Penner ownership group, no price is too high.

But that is only true when it comes to cash outlay.

Yes, their largesse can cover the nine-figure upgrade cost for a stadium that could well be in its final decade as the Broncos’ home. It can send an entire college student body to Texas to watch a Division II national-championship game. It ensures that a $400,000 outlay for a new field used for just one game is feasible.

And it can make Sean Payton not merely the highest-paid coach in the NFL, but perhaps all of global sports. If he becomes the Broncos’ coach, his salary could well approach the petro-dollar-fueled contract for Manchester City’s Pep Guardiola.

Walton-Penner cash is a virtually limitless resource.

So, if landing Payton were only about that, he might be the Broncos’ coach already.

But that’s not true for draft capital. And it’s not true for spending on players. Not with a salary cap in place.

And all of that now connects with the Payton pursuit.

The NFL forces you to live within a budget. A collectively-bargained budget, to be precise. Without it, you’d rewrite the modern history of the sport. The Dallas Cowboys might be gunning for their 15th Lombardi Trophy right now. The top four seeds in the AFC would certainly be some combination other than the small-market quartet of Kansas City, Buffalo, Cincinnati and Jacksonville.

The forced budget of cap space and draft capital is part of what makes the NFL this nation’s sporting colossus.

And it is that budget which is stretched to the max at UCHealth Training Center.

Payton is the luxury item that the wealthiest owners in North American pro sports may be unable to afford. But it isn’t because of cash. It’s because the New Orleans Saints hold his rights — which makes it about draft capital, too.

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FINITE RESOURCES

According to Jeff Duncan of the New Orleans Advocate, Saints general manager Mickey Loomis wants “compensation similar to what the Oakland Raiders received from Tampa Bay in exchange for Jon Gruden in 2002, with two first-round draft picks being the starting point.”

If it takes two first-round picks to get Payton, then, effectively, the cost of Wilson is FOUR first-round picks. The two they gave up for Wilson last year … and the two they would surrender to acquire a coach tasked with trying to restore Wilson’s level of play to his Seattle standard.

And that price doesn’t even include the two second-round picks sent to Seattle … or the former first-round pick included in the March 2022 trade, Noah Fant … or Shelby Harris and Drew Lock, who were also part of the deal.

Put it all together, and it’s too much.

It’s also too much because it implies that only Payton can fix Wilson.

Taking that deal means the Broncos would be saying that Jim Caldwell — whose work with Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco and Matthew Stafford is above reproach — couldn’t.

They’d be saying that David Shaw, renowned for his work with quarterbacks, couldn’t.

That Dan Quinn — and the coaches he could bring along, perhaps including a former Seahawks/Wilson play-caller like Brian Schottenhimer or Darrell Bevell — couldn’t.

That the potential coaching staffs of Raheem Morris or DeMeco Ryans couldn’t. And before you dismiss them as “defensive guys,” remember that they work for Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan. And that Morris sits at the nexus of working not only under McVay, but with Shanahan AND his decorated father, Broncos Ring of Famer Mike Shanahan. Morris worked two years with the Shanahans in Washington from 2012-13, then reunited with the younger Shanahan to Atlanta as assistant head coach and passing-game coordinator on Quinn’s staff in 2015.

Payton is an accomplished coach. But two first-round picks better than the other finalists? Effectively turning the cost for Wilson into four Round 1 selections? That doesn’t add up.

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DON’T CUT OFF YOUR OWN ESCAPE ROUTE

That said, it’s not a question of whether Payton is good enough for the job.

There are reasons why teams covet his services. He turned a franchise that was a doormat for much of its first four decades into a perennial winner. Only some capricious winds of fate — a Minneapolis Miracle there, a shambolic pass-interference no-call there — kept Payton’s Saints from greater playoff outcomes.

Further, with finite resources, it’s not just question of whether Payton is potentially two first-round picks better than the alternatives.

It’s also a question of whether the Broncos want to torpedo their best way of acquiring resources to help Wilson — or building a contingency plan if Operation Restore Russ fails this year.

Because if Wilson doesn’t get his groove back in 2023, what’s the best fallback plan? Especially with a crushing dead-money hit of more than $85 million, likely spread over two years?

It’s a cost-controlled quarterback in Round 1 of the 2024 draft.

Trading two first-round picks for Payton means the Broncos destroy their escape route. The franchise’s hopes become all-or-nothing with Wilson.

Because if he struggles, and the Broncos eat the sunk cost before another $37 million becomes guaranteed if he’s on the roster for the fifth day of the 2024 league year, Denver needs a way out to start fresh at QB.

And the best way remains with a first-round pick, even though it offers no guarantee.

The Broncos need to fix Wilson.

But they also need to ensure that if 2023 is a decline rather than a dip, they can formulate another plan.

Trading two first-round picks prevents that. If the Broncos surrender two first-rounders, they’ll have no viable alternatives at quarterback in the future. And unfortunately for the Broncos, the Walton-Penner group can’t buy a contingency plan.

If Loomis demands two first-rounders, the Broncos should just say, “No.”

And if the Saints hang up the phone, the Broncos can quickly move on — because there are other good choices in front of them.

They have alternatives in the coaching search. Good ones. This year’s roster of interviewees has more cachet and gravitas than last year’s.

Payton could be the answer. But if Loomis and the Saints demand too high a price, the Broncos should reluctantly walk away.

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