Broncos flipped to favorites for Thursday Night Football

It takes only a bit of logic to realize the big injuries impacting the New Orleans Saints likely hamper their chances to win on Thursday against the Denver Broncos and that’s exactly the thinking Vegas has.

Opening as a field goal underdog, the Broncos are now favored to win on the road by a field goal to start NFL Week 7. Despite the Broncos coming off an ugly home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, the Saints will be without their starting quarterback, top two wide receivers and starting tight end. Starting a fifth-round rookie quarterback will no doubt be a challenge, but the Saints still put up 27 points in a quarter with Derek Carr sidelined last Sunday—still they lost to Tampa Bay 51-27. The Broncos beat those same Buccaneers on the road just a few weeks ago 26-7.

Denver has quite the opportunity in the game—not only to get back above .500 but to set themselves up for a mini-bye followed by hosting the lousy Panthers. The Broncos could springboard to 5-3 if all goes well before hitting a tougher stretch of their schedule. And getting to 5-3 after a 0-2 start would be impressive. This, the second season of Sean Payton, is seeing Denver become serious about being one of the 10% of teams that make the playoffs after starting 0-2. That would be a big deal for the Broncos, who haven’t been in the postseason since winning Super Bowl 50.

Showing the importance of this game as the Broncos keep trying to climb off the ropes, ESPN’s FPI has Denver with a 24.5% chance of making the playoffs which is down from 36% from last week.

Given the Saints have now lost four straight and some of their star players, as well as the shine coming off their debut win against Dallas—Denver is feeling pretty good about this short week.

Bookies have Denver’s playoff chances set at +250 right now which carries implied odds of 29%. So Vegas still thinks the Broncos are alive and getting back on track could go a long way for the season’s hopes.

Denver Broncos odds

Week 7: Denver -3

Playoffs Odds: +250 (down from Week 6 +180)

Super Bowl: +12,000 (down from Week 6 + 9,000)

What the Broncos odds mean

Oddsmakers have flipped this line entirely this week based on the injury news with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Not only did money likely come in on the Broncos but the bookies probably saw a chance to make some money. Vegas sees the game as a 20-17 win or so based on the over/under total.

The game’s biggest storyline is Payton’s return to Louisiana, where he coached the Saints for 15 years—taking them to the heights of a Super Bowl win and helping the city bounce back from Hurricane Katrina. Payton’s quarterback for most of that time was Drew Brees, who will be honored at halftime of the TNF game, getting inducted into the team’s Hall of Fame.

This will be the 12th matchup between these foes. The Broncos are 9-3 all-time against the Saints with one of those three losses being the last time they met and one of the more infamous games in Denver sports history. Without any quarterbacks due to COVID-19 restrictions, the Broncos were beaten 31-3.

The Broncos have a mini-bye week ahead, hosting the Panthers next Sunday at Mile High.

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