It sure sounds like Nuggets GM Calvin Booth said goodbye to KCP

DENVER—The best starting five in basketball may be breaking up in the coming days as Denver Nuggets general manager Calvin Booth hinted heavily after the first round of the NBA Draft that shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope may walk this summer.

Denver’s starting two-guard, known for his defense and shooting, was brought into the fold as Booth’s first big move. It was the centerpiece trade that ended with the Nuggets winning the 2023 NBA title. But after just two seasons in Denver, KCP has a player option that he’s widely expected to opt out of, leaving the Nuggets in a bidding war with several other teams. Complicating matters more is the heavy tax the Nuggets are facing for their expensive starting lineup and the new restrictions their wage bill carries under the new CBA.

Those data points align with the nightmare scenario that Denver could be walking away from a player who fits perfectly with everything they want and need. Caldwell-Pope played 76 games in 2023-24, averaging 10.1 points, 2.4 assists, 2.4 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 0.6 blocks on 41% shooting from deep. Denver’s defensive rating of 111.0 when KCP was on the floor was 36th-best among players who played at least 65 games and 20 minutes a night.

“I think we have to look at everything, and the nature of free agency is that he is unrestricted so we can try to bring him back but if he doesn’t want to come back or he chooses to go somewhere else, that’s his prerogative, we’ll have to work with that,” Booth said. “But I think we’re prepared to like, plug-and-play, so to speak. I think we look at some of the teams that have been good in the past. They have to find a way to replace fourth and fifth starters, and sixth men off the bench and still keep rolling. It’ll be nice if KCP is back they have a lot of continuity together but I think all and all the stuff I’ve looked at the lineup stuff and everything Christian Braun is one of the best net rating guys in the league as is KCP. So I think if he has to step into the starting lineup, like probably projected I think, you know, we’ll be okay if KCP doesn’t return.”

Christian Braun was actually the best defensive player on Denver according to that same defensive rating metric at 109.3 points for the other team scored per 100 possessions. Similarly, KCP’s defensive win shares were 26th-best in the NBA among players who hit those qualifiers. The 1.3 steals a game, were tied for 14th-most in the NBA this season. Braun has a similar defensive profile, albeit not as strong as a screen navigator, across the board but KCP is a far better shooter. The veteran has made 125 or more threes in each of his two Nuggets seasons whereas Braun is yet to make 100 triples as a pro. Braun actually went 20-straight playoff games without hitting from deep whereas KCP only didn’t hit a three in five of his 32 playoff games for the Nuggets.

KCP, a two-time champion, is obviously the better player than Braun. Plus it’s not even an either or because Braun can be a fine sixth man with KCP still in the lineup. The issue is the tax bill and those ramifications which could prevent Denver plus a hesitation to match any deal on a 31-year-old guard who struggled in the Nuggets last playoff series and has shown aging in the form of leg injuries.

But can the Nuggets actually afford to be a contender without KCP? Most of the Nikola Jokic era has been a struggle because of perimeter defense, an issue instantly solved when Booth added KCP. And even if Bruan fills in there, he clogs the offense with his shooting struggles and the Nuggets already have one uncertain shooter from deep in Aaron Gordon. Yes, the Nuggets do have some young shooters like Julian Strawther who could take the load off Braun, but his 50-game rookie season carried a less than 30% shooting from deep.

Wherever the Nuggets go from here, the path is unpaved:

Go deeper into the tax, be shallow with KCP, and possibly shorten the back end of the title window.

Let KCP walk maybe losing the window altogether while cobbling together a big trade costing assets just to get back to where you were before.

The good news on Wednesday is that the Nuggets finally added some frontcourt depth and it was exactly who they wanted. It’s just the bad news coming of KCP declining his option later this week is a far more pressing topic.