At least one expert has the Broncos going under 5.5 wins in 2024

Jun 14, 2024, 11:52 AM

The Denver Broncos total has been set at over / under 5.5 wins during the 2024 NFL season.

And at least on expert doesn’t think Sean Payton’s squad can get to six victories.

The Athletic’s Vic Tafur published his prediction for each team on Friday, and despite going 8-9 a season ago, he has the Broncos taking a major step back.

Tafur has Denver at exactly five wins, pointing out the fact that two of their triumphs in 2023 came against Chargers QB Easton Stick last year. He’s not a fan of the Bo Nix pick at No. 12 overall in April’s NFL Draft, and doesn’t think the schedule does the Broncos any favors.

“While I think taking Bo Nix 12th in an NFL Draft is negligence, I also think Sean Payton can mold him pretty quickly into a functional robot who can run for first downs when things break down. Russell Wilson, it turns out, had enough experience, success and free thought that he was going to follow his instincts sometimes and not just throw it exactly where Payton wanted,” Tafur writes.

Payton clearly didn’t want Wilson in Denver any longer, taking on the largest dead cap hit in NFL history of $85 million to move on from the former Pro Bowler. Wilson now plays with the Steelers, while Payton has a QB room that consists of Nix, Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson.

“Denver is going to win either five or six games, as while it has a brutal schedule (AFC North, and an opening four games at Seattle, vs. Pittsburgh, at Tampa Bay and at the Jets), it will catch some teams later looking past them and then huffing and puffing at Mile High. Give me five wins,” Tafur concludes.

He’s not wrong about the altitude advantage the Broncos could have late in the season, especially with the likes of Carolina, Atlanta, Cleveland and Indianapolis coming to town. The Panthers stink, the Falcons will have to rely on the health of Kirk Cousins, while the Browns and Colts should be around .500.

Regardless, Tafur has the Broncos rebuilding this year while Payton finds out what he has in Nix. We’ll know in a little more than six months if he’s right.


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At least one expert has the Broncos going under 5.5 wins in 2024