NFL playoffs show that Broncos can win with lots of dead money

If the Broncos move on from Russell Wilson, as expected, the words “dead money” will define the Broncos for as long as they choose to absorb the remaining salary-cap charges left on the quarterback’s bulbous contract.

But dead money doesn’t equal dead hopes.

And this weekend’s wild-card playoffs demonstrated that.

According to Spotrac.com, four teams had dead-money figures exceeding $65 million in 2023. Three of them made the playoffs. And two of them — the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers — will play next weekend in the NFL’s divisional round after thumping their foes.

One other team — the Los Angeles Rams — came within a point and a controversial no-call of joining the teams from the Bays in the NFL’s quarterfinals And the team with the fith-highest figure — Philadelphia, with $63.869 million — also qualified for the postseason, although the Eagles’ collapse after a 10-1 start doesn’t inspire positive feelings about their ability to work around the dead money on their cap.

Of the team’s with the five-worst situations in the 2023 campaign, only the Arizona Cardinals finished below out of the playoffs.

WHY THOSE TEAMS SUCCEEDED DESPITE DEAD MONEY

Tampa Bay certainly benefitted from a weakened NFC South to absorb its massive dead-money charge — most of which came from the retirement of Tom Brady. The Bucs absorbed a $35.1 million hit on Brady’s contract.

It wouldn’t have worked without the successful reclamation project involving Baker Mayfield. The Broncos saw first-hand on Christmas Day 2022 that Mayfield still had it despite an injury-strangled 2021 campaign and a doomed stint with the Carolina Panthers.

The Bucs got Mayfield on a $4-million contract that had a $1.7-million cap figure for 2023 due to the voidable years put on the deal for 2024, 2025 and 2026.

The Packers and Rams went for cost-controlled players on rookie deals. Green Bay has the league’s youngest roster and Jordan Love still on his rookie contract, although he signed an extension last offseason. His 2023 cap figure remained at $4.409 million.

Los Angeles has the league’s second-youngest roster. Thirty-seven of their players on the 53-man roster or injured reserve had cap figures below $1 million. The Broncos, by comparison, had 22 such players.

Another huge difference comes in the contracts in the middle — between $1 million and $6 million per year. The Broncos have 31 such players. The Rams have 13. This is an area in which the Rams generate savings and compensate for the dead-money hit.

Los Angeles leaned heavily on rookies and second-year players — 24 in total on their 53-man roster and injured reserve, including 14 rookies.

Denver will likely need a similar emphasis on young talent next season to make this calculus work.

BUT THE BRONCOS HAVE A GREATER CHALLENGE

First, they already have $9,963,124 of dead money on their 2024 cap for contracts to Frank Clark, Randy Gregory, Brandon McManus and Montrell Washington. Second, they are $30.073 million over the projected 2024 cap, according to OvertheCap.com.

Creating space will likely create more dead money. For example, to save $16 million by trading or releasing left tackle Garett Bolles, the Broncos would create another $4 million of dead money. A similar move with Justin Simmons would create $14.5 million of space — but leave $3.75 million of dead money.

And then, of course, there is Russell Wilson’s contract. To cut him with a post-June 1 designation spreads the dead-money hit over two years: $35.4 million in 2024 and $49.6 million in 2025. Without that designation, it’s a one-year, $85-million hit. And while there is offset language, a team that signs Wilson would likely give him a veteran-minimum base salary: $1.210 million.

Spreading the dead money for Wilson’s contract over two years, accounting for the offset and then taking the already-existing dead money plus the dead-money figures for Simmons and Bolles would leave the Broncos with $51,903,124 in dead cap. And they would have more moves to make in order to squeeze in a rookie class, to say nothing of free-agent pickups.

Of course, if the Broncos choose to take the Wilson pill in one gulp, that would add another $49.6 million — pushing the dead-money total in this example to a mind-boggling $101.5 million. Which, of course, is considerably more than the figures carried by the Bucs, Packers and Rams.

No matter what the Broncos choose, there is a path through it — painful as it could be.

It will require them going young, getting a talented quarterback on a prove-it contract like the one Mayfield signed with Tampa Bay … or both.

But as this season demonstrated … dead cap doesn’t have to prevent you from moving in the right direction.