There’s a formula for the Broncos to get a win over the Packers

The Denver Broncos need to think about the future. They have a 1-5 record this season, and this puts them in line for a premium pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Currently, the Broncos only have a 10 percent chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick – so, how do they improve those chances?

After their road loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on “Thursday Night Football” in Week 6, they return home to take on the Green Bay Packers in Week 7. This is a winnable game, but the Broncos are in a position where winning more games might not be the best thing for their future.

The Packers have a young quarterback who can play better than he has this season. He should be helped this week with the return of a Pro Bowl running back to the lineup.

How will the Broncos attack the Packers on both sides of the ball? Let’s take a look.

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When the Broncos Run the Ball

Everyone say it with me. The Broncos need to run the ball more often.

They’re a good team when it comes to the ground game, and starting RB Javonte Williams could do more if he was asked to. Backup RB Jaleel McLaughlin could produce like the dangerous threat he is – if HC Sean Payton called more run plays. I know they’ll say to run more they need to convert more third downs, but against the Packers that’s how you win.

Green Bay is the fifth-worst defense against the run, allowing 4.3 yards per carry and an average of 143.4 rushing yards per game. They have talent in the secondary, so teams generally avoid passing on them. The Packers defense is also top-10 when it comes to allowed third-down conversions (34.7 percent). The way you move the ball against the Packers is on the ground, and the way you keep moving the chains against the Packers is on the ground – period.

This means the Broncos should give them a heavy dose of Williams. He’s over a year removed from his multiple ligament knee injury suffered last season, and Williams looks as close to his old self as he can at this time. Williams is still one of the toughest runners in the league, and with the Packers playing at altitude, it should mean they wear down as the game goes on. McLaughlin is there to make an impact with his speed, but I feel short passes might be the best way to get production out of him in Week 7 (more on that in a bit).

On a positive note: Javonte Williams 😤 pic.twitter.com/mE3B0Gfvla

— Denver Sports (@DenverSportsCom) October 13, 2023

Will the Broncos run the ball more? If they want to win on Sunday, the best plan includes plenty of Williams and McLaughlin.

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When the Broncos Pass the Ball

If they run the ball, the Broncos will pass the ball with more efficiency. Running the ball will make the Packers adjust and play closer to the line of scrimmage. That movement will open things up for QB Russell Wilson to take some shots downfield. If not, Denver will have to navigate the dink-and-dunk holes the defense gives them. I’m not sure they have the patience to do that.

The talent in the Packers’ secondary will be something for Wilson to contend with. So far this season, the Packers have a top-12 defense in terms of quarterback rating allowed (84.9). Players like CB Jaire Alexander and FS Darnell Savage will be players to monitor when Wilson goes back to pass. I’m not saying avoid throwing to Alexander, but make sure the spacing is correct when you do. For whatever reason, spacing and timing have been a problem for the Broncos offense this season.

Do they feature WR Jerry Jeudy in order to trade him? I think that’s a possibility. Jeudy has done virtually nothing this season. He says “check the film” but film study reveals that his game is lacking and uninspiring. If I’m the Broncos, I can’t trade Jeudy soon enough. Just like every week, I want to see more Marvin Mims Jr. The rookie receiver has had some rookie struggles this year, but it’s pathetic that he’s played fewer snaps than Lil Jordan Humphrey this season. That makes no sense, especially since this offense is desperate for playmakers – when Mims is clearly one of those few guys on the roster who inspires fear in an opponent.

Average depth of target among NFL rookies through Week 6:

1. Marvin Mims, Broncos (20.5)
2. Trey Palmer, Bucs (14.8)
3. Michael Wilson, Cardinals (13.9)
4. Jayden Reed, Packers (13.8)
5. Tank Dell, Texans (12.9)
6. Jordan Addison, Vikings (12.5)
7. Demario Douglas, Pats (12.3) pic.twitter.com/3A5l9Tmudz

— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) October 18, 2023

I don’t think this game will be a shootout. That means a measured passing game, and that means fewer opportunities than the receivers would like. Keep the ball on the ground, take a shot or two if you set it up. Other than that, the best plan for the Broncos includes a modest day for Wilson and company.

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When the Packers Run the Ball

The Packers can run the ball if Aaron Jones is on the field. His backup, AJ Dillon, is a big-bodied plodder who does not impress with the rock. On the other hand, Jones is a dynamic player who can gash a defense as a runner or receiver out of the backfield. We’ll see both backs, so the Broncos must be prepared for these variants in style.
Jones injured his hamstring in Week 1 and had to miss some time. He did come back in Week 4, but he did not look like his old self. Jones missed Week 5, and the team had a bye in Week 6, so he’s gotten plenty of time to get right. If healthy, Jones will bring his trademark slashing style to the field in a game where he could gash the Broncos on the ground.

The Broncos are facing an offense led by HC Matt LaFleur who is a disciple of Mike Shanahan. That means we’ll be seeing plenty of the wide-zone concepts that Shanahan made famous in Denver. Going up against this scheme will require a lot of discipline from the Broncos defense. The Packers want to get you moving laterally, so Jones can cut back and find the open rushing lanes. Jones is patient enough to work the “bend, bang, or bounce” concepts and big plays could happen if the team does not stay in their lanes.

Aaron Jones 2017 Highlights @Showtyme_33 #ParklandStrong #NoMuslimBanEver #packers #NFLHonors #highlights pic.twitter.com/3rwgTYS6bl

— Packers Digitals (@PackersDigitals) February 16, 2018

It looks like Jones is going to be out there on Sunday. Dillon will help soften up the team with his punishing style, but Jones is a threat when he’s on the field. If Denver doesn’t stop (or at least slow down) Jones, they’ll be in for a long day.

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When the Packers Pass the Ball

For years, quarterback Jordan Love sat behind future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers. With Rodgers traded to the New York Jets earlier this year, the controls for the Packers have been turned over to Love with varying degrees of success. The last time the Packers played, Week 5 against the Las Vegas Raiders, Love cost them the game with multiple turnovers.

Love completed 16-of-30 passes for 182 yards and three interceptions in the Packers’ 17-13, Week 5 loss to the Raiders, adding 37 yards on two carries. Well, what better week to have a bounce-back game than facing the no.32 defense in the NFL. The Broncos are bad against the run, and they’re bad against the pass. Entering Week 7, the Broncos have given up the highest quarterback rating on average (117.8) this season. I fully expect the Packers to run the ball effectively, and this will settle down Love when he needs to make a play with his arm.

One of my favorite young receivers in the league is Romeo Doubs. We’ll see the Packers use the quick passing game to the short side of the field to get Doubs jump-started. He’s got a feisty attitude as a receiver, and Doubs has run-after-the-catch ability. When the team goes deep, expect WR Christian Watson to be on the other end of most of those throws. Their combination is young and unproven, but both Doubs and Watson have upside to one day be Pro Bowl-caliber receivers. Add in rookie TE Luke Musgrave, a threat in the open field, and you can see how the Packers’ passing attack is more dangerous than one thinks – if Love takes care of the football.

Lots of questions surrounding #Packers QB Jordan Love over the past couple of weeks. #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/ADBwPlQuQo

— Real Friends & Football (@rff_football) October 11, 2023

The Packers aren’t going to win through the air, but they are going to use quick strikes to keep Denver’s defense off balance. Even though Love could have a bounce-back game against the Broncos, I think this team relies on Jones and the rushing attack only to set up Love for some shots here and there.

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Follow @CecilLammey