On franchise-tag deadline day, Broncos face decision on Dre’Mont Jones

The NFL’s franchise tag is a funny thing. It confers an eight-figure windfall on almost anyone who receives it. Life-changing money!

And yet when it is issued, no one seems particularly pleased about it.

Tuesday at 2 p.m. MST, the 2023 franchise-tag deadline arrives. The Broncos have one candidate: defensive lineman Dre’Mont Jones. There are no indications that Denver will use their option to tag him, and far more signs that he will test the market.

More often than not, “test the market” means “goodbye.” That’s the way of things at this time of year. March brings change out of a frosty winter, and it yields the same sort of changes for hundreds of players with expiring NFL contracts.

Jones will get a substantial deal. As mentioned recently, a good recent barometer is the contract Washington gave Jonathan Allen in 2021. The production levels of Jones and Allen are similar to this point in their careers. Allen had more quarterback hits per 17 games — 14.7 to Jones’ 11.5. But Jones had more sacks per 17 games — 6.7 to Allen’s 5.6.

Allen received $44.14 million guaranteed and an average per-year contractual value of $14.4 million.

Adjusted for the increase in the salary cap — 23.2 percent, from $182.5 million to $224.8 million — Jones can reasonably expect somebody to pay him a minimum of $17.7 million per year. And given the scarcity of his skill set — interior pass rushers are notoriously hard to find — $20 million a year isn’t out of the equation.

Tagging Jones on Tuesday would cost the Broncos $19.727 million against the cap.

But it would make sense — even if they don’t want him back long-term.

The consequence could be massive to the Broncos’ salary-cap situation as the new league year begins. That’s because the tag charge hits immediately. It comes off if the Broncos execute a tag-and-trade and deal Jones. But if they trade him, it might not happen until closer to the draft. There’s no guarantee it would happen in a time frame that would allow the Broncos to be as active as they might like to be in the first wave of free agency,

So, why not just let Jones walk in free agency if they don’t want him? After all, the Broncos would get a third-round compensatory pick if he leaves, right?

Potentially.

The catch is that to get that compensatory pick, the Broncos could not sign an unrestricted free agent of a similar caliber. Otherwise, those third-round comp picks would cancel each other out … and the Broncos would be left with nothing if Jones walks.

Now, if they sign players who were cut by their teams, this doesn’t apply. Those are street free agents. So, if the New Orleans Saints make, for example, Jameis Winston or Andrus Peat cap casualties and release them, they wouldn’t count toward the compensatory calculus.

But some of the splash free agents the Broncos could add would effectively wipe out any compensatory draft capital to the Broncos for 2024.

Last week at the Scouting Combine, Sean Payton noted that he was operating with “no rear-view mirrors.” Or even “side-view mirrors,” he added. You know, the ones that have the message, “Objects are closer than they may appear.”

Well, the prospect of a defensive line without Jones could be closer than it appears.

Tagging Jones isn’t ideal because of the immediate cap hit — unless it’s a bridge to a deal happening soon.

But it beats a potential alternative: getting nothing at all.

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