For Sean Payton to succeed, George Paton needs to be great or be gone

Sean Payton can be a great head coach for the Denver Broncos. He’s proven as a Super Bowl champion, and I firmly believe Payton can be the first head coach in NFL history to win a championship with two different teams. For Payton to get the Broncos their fourth Super Bowl title, he’s going to need some help from a guy who hasn’t been great yet.

Broncos’ general manager George Paton needs to be great, or he needs to be gone.

Everything starts with the NFL Draft. Yes, I know I’m biased as “Mr. Draft” around these parts, but what I believe is true to the foundation of this game. If Paton is not great in the draft, then Payton can only take the Broncos so far. The relationship between a head coach and the front office needs to be strong, and Payton had that with Saints’ GM Mickey Loomis.

Not only does Payton and Paton need to mesh personality wise, but they need to match in their philosophies of how to properly build a football team. All that can be done, but there’s one other thing that needs to happen that we haven’t seen happen – Paton needs to crush the draft.

If he doesn’t do that, then the Walton-Penner Group needs to find someone who can. In this article, I’m going to explain why having a good-but-not-great general manager is a waste of time.

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Four for Four

Loomis and Payton were able to get great results from their 2017 NFL Draft. That was the year they got CB Marshon Lattimore, OT Ryan Ramczyk, RB Alvin Kamara, and DE Trey Hendrickson in the first three rounds. Those four players were not only starters, but they became stars and superstars in this league. It was a great haul, and one that helped give the Saints a foundation for Payton to build on.

Lattimore was a no-brainer pick who was seen as a potential star coming into the league. Ramczyk, a player I wanted the Broncos to select instead of Garett Bolles, was arguably the best tackle in that class and today he’s arguably the best right tackle in the NFL. Kamara was a surprise pick for some, but Loomis knew what Payton could do with a talent like that in the backfield. It was the Hendrickson pick where I think Loomis really shined.

Back in 2017, I was at the East-West Shrine Game practices in Tampa watching a player I felt could be that year’s version of Derek Wolfe. FAU’s Trey Hendrickson was there, and he was wrecking opponents in team drills and 1-on-1 drills. I wanted the Broncos to take Hendrickson that year, but instead former GM John Elway took a chance on CB/WR Brendon Langley two picks before Hendrickson. Elway also selected WR Carlos Henderson in the third round that year in another gaffe.

Missing on mid-round picks, or taking a chance on the wrong player from a small school, is not just something Elway did – it’s something Paton did last year with the selection of WR Montrell Washington when RB Isiah Pacheco (starter for the Chiefs for most of his rookie year) was on the board or taking S Delarrin Turner-Yell one pick before the Seahawks selected CB Tariq Woolen (who led the league in interceptions). Fans grew tired of Elway missing picks outside of some early-round selections, but few are noticing that Paton is doing the same thing.

Trey Hendrickson: An offense's worst nightmare 😈

More highlights on https://t.co/KpeqK4RKUm pic.twitter.com/QPwXTtC9La

— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) February 15, 2023

There is always mid-to-late round talent that can be found in the draft. With the 2017 NFL draft class, the Payton-led Saints went to the playoffs for four years in a row. Those postseason runs were met with playoff disappointment (Minnesota miracle, pass interference not called versus Rams, etc) but it made the Saints a force to be reckoned with under Payton.

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Chiefs’ Draft Makes History

I can’t stand the Kansas City Chiefs, but I respect the hell out of the way that team has been put together. Their GM Brett Veach is one of the most respected talent evaluators in the game, and the results speak for themselves. They struck gold with the selection of QB Patrick Mahomes in the 2017 NFL draft, Veach’s first pick as GM, and they had to move up 17 spots to secure him at No. 10 overall.

Veach’s success goes beyond Mahomes. It also goes beyond his draft picks, but I’ll save the praise for Veach’s decisions in free agency for another time. Just know that Veach is light years ahead of where Paton is now in their respective roles. For Payton to get the best out of the Broncos, it would be nice if Paton was more like Veach and less like his mentor Rick Spielman.

Under Spielman, the Minnesota Vikings were a solid team who could make some good picks here and there. However, they never figured out the quarterback situation through various tries to rectify the situation. The Vikings had their opportunities to have “home run” picks but Spielman instead was swinging for singles or doubles. Because of that failure in philosophy, the Vikings were good not great and did not win a championship.

Don’t just look at Veach’s work early in his career as general manager but look at what he just did last year in the draft. The Chiefs made a run in the playoffs and won the Super Bowl, largely because of Mahomes but also because of the strong rookie class. They had four rookie Super Bowl starters, and their first-year players combined for 61 starts this season, the most since 1991 for a Super Bowl winner, according to NFL Research. It wasn’t just the first-round picks (CB Trent McDuffie, EDGE George Karlaftis) but look at their seventh-round picks in Pacheco and CB Jaylen Watson – both players I wanted the Broncos to draft late. Instead of going for upside, Paton (like Spielman) went for safe picks and missed.

Chiefs' Super Bowl success started with historic 2022 draft classhttps://t.co/UTXvItRtfw pic.twitter.com/keokdAQPQ2

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) February 19, 2023

All the pieces were there last year for Paton to have a huge impact in the draft even though the team didn’t have a first-round pick. NFL.com writer Eric Edholm, who I think is one of the best in the business when it comes to the NFL draft, gave the Broncos a “C-” grade for their draft in 2022 – which might be a bit generous. Only the Las Vegas Raiders did worse in the division, earning a “D+” grade from Edholm.

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We Already Knew That

I’m sure I’ll get pushback about Paton by some who will point at CB Patrick Surtain as a great pick by Paton. Yes, Surtain was a great pick who should be a Pro Bowl caliber player for years to come. No, I’m not going to write about how Paton should’ve taken QB Justin Fields here or LB Micah Parsons. However, I am going to point out how we can’t fall all over ourselves about Paton “hitting” on Surtain.

Coming out of Alabama, Surtain was a well-known and highly respected prospect by everyone in the scouting community. In fact, Surtain was one of the rare players who you could not really pick his game apart. I’m not calling him perfect, and in 20 years of covering the draft in the media only WR Calvin Johnson was that guy, but Surtain was certainly seen as a “can’t miss” player.

Paton did not go for Fields, a quarterback with question marks. There was also terrible gossip about Fields using his epilepsy to get out of practice that people like Dan Orlovsky on ESPN (he said Fields was last to practice, first to leave, etc) ran with. That gossip was easily debunked by anyone with half a brain, apparently something Orlovsky did after the fact and issued an apology a few days later. Hopefully Paton was not listening to that gossip. Parsons had character concerns, but the Cowboys are certainly happy with their young superstar. To make matters worse, Paton had to double check with Elway before making the pick.

Seeing Surtain’s talent was easy. Selecting Surtain based off his character and talent was an easy call. That’s not something to celebrate. The Broncos made the obvious call. To be a great general manager, you must do that – but to truly separate yourself (like Veach does) a GM must hit on mid-to-late round guys. That’s something Paton has not done.

Patrick Surtain II with Rex Ryan as his DC pic.twitter.com/SlMk6ql3Zc

— Michael 🇲🇽 (@RespectMyCos) February 18, 2023

Is there going to be a “Surtain Island” in Denver? There already is, and I think Surtain is going to keep getting better and better. If Rex Ryan is hired as defensive coordinator, he’s going to get a supremely gifted player to work with who is only improving by the day. Thank Paton for making the pick, but it’s not like he had to dig much to uncover such a talent.

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Summary

To be nice, Paton has been painfully average as a general manager. I believe he has an eye for talent, but I believe there are things holding him back from being great.

First, he needs to listen to his scouts and not take on the opinion of others. I don’t care if QB Russell Wilson likes Washington, that was a bad pick when much better talent was available (I didn’t even bring up QB Sam Howell as a possibility on Day 3). Second, Paton needs to realize the Broncos have a much different history and level of expectations than that of the Vikings. They’ve never won a championship in Minnesota while Denver is looking for their fourth title. Paton needs to stop being safe, and instead needs to get the type of impact players that can get this team back to the top of the mountain.

Finally, Paton needs to understand Payton’s direction for the team. Payton can make anything look good – see what he did with quarterbacks not named Drew Brees. Paton needs to get Payton more than average players, and I believe he’s drafting for his job this year. The Broncos don’t have a pick in the 2023 NFL Draft until the third round – good luck. It’s the mid-to-late round picks where Paton needs to be better than he ever has before if he wants to help Payton achieve greatness for this team in the future.

If Paton can’t do that, then he’s got to go. The Broncos don’t have time to waste.

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