Crunching the numbers to project Jerry Jeudy’s 2022 production

Soon to begin his third NFL season, Denver Broncos wide receiver Jerry Jeudy finds himself in both an unenviable position and an enviable one.

Unenviable? Jeudy hasn’t lived up to his billing as the 15th overall selection in the 2020 NFL Draft, especially given the performances of Dallas’ CeeDee Lamb (17th), Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson (22nd), San Francisco’s Brandon Aiyuk (25th), Cincinnati’s Tee Higgins (33rd) or Indianapolis’ Michael Pittman, Jr. (34th); all of whom have outperformed Jeudy at the NFL level. Last week, Jeudy looked to turn the page on those underwhelming campaigns.

“There are things you can control, and things you can’t control,” the wideout said. “Those first two years are gone now, so I’m just focused on this year.”

Enviable? Jeudy only turned 23 a few weeks ago, and instead of the likes of now-Seahawk Drew Lock and journeyman Teddy Bridgewater throwing him the ball. It’ll now be likely Hall-of-Famer Russell Wilson, who raved about Jeudy in April.

“I think he’s a star,” Wilson said about his new teammate. “A guy that can get open, a guy that can kill guys at the line; can match up against different guys. Can go attack the ball and snag it off their head.”

There’s no question that Wilson’s presence will help Jeudy immensely, and the Broncos’ new quarterback is more than happy to serve as a mentor.

“It’s that journey and that ability to be neutral in the midst of it all and know that you have people to lead, people to guide and people to love, push and challenge to be their best version of themselves,” Wilson explained. “A guy like Jerry Jeudy — just being around him, we’ve had some amazing discussions and some amazing talks. We’ve put the extra work in. Just to be around him — and so many other guys — who are constantly in your ear saying, ‘What do you do here? What do you do there?’ They’re asking questions about the game and how you take care of yourself. ‘How do you play so many games in a row? How do you do that?’ It’s those little questions.”

For the Broncos, who have rewarded receivers Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick with lucrative new contracts, it’s Jeudy that stands the most to gain in 2022. And the Broncos are invested in his future.

In his first two seasons, Jeudy played in 26 of a possible 33 games, missing six due to injury in 2021. That injury hampered his development, but a catch rate that leapt from 46.0 percent to 67.9, along with an improvement in average yards per target from 7.6 yards to 8.3 indicates that, even in Jeudy’s abbreviated season, he improved in ways that Wilson is particularly adept at utilizing. Wilson’s career completion percentage sits at an impressive 65 percent and had improved in three of the last four seasons before dropping merely to 64.8 percent during last season’s injury-shortened season that saw him miss three games with a broken finger, and he probably rushed back too soon in an effort to keep Seattle’s slim playoff hopes alive. Wilson’s also generally considered one of the league’s most accurate — and most aggressive — downfield passers in the league.

Assuming those trends generally hold true, it’s not unreasonable to expect Jeudy to catch roughly 60 percent of his targets; a step forward from his career average of 53.3 percent — and a number that sits at the higher end between Sutton (56.1%) and Patrick’s (60.6%) career rates, but not unreasonable given the certain improvement granted by the addition of the precise Wilson. Jeudy should expect his average yards per target to go up slightly due to Wilson’s skill with the deep ball; Sutton and Patrick both sport career averages of exactly 8.5 yards, making for a good benchmark from which to project.

Presumably, Jeudy will receive the second-most targets behind Sutton in 2022, though there’s a distinct chance that he could out-draw Sutton if early-season performances impress the Broncos’ new signal-caller. New head coach Nathaniel Hackett looks to blend both Seattle and Green Bay’s offense, utilizing Wilson a little bit more like Aaron Rodgers was; which is what Wilson wants at this stage of his career. Wilson’s frustration with Seahawks coach Pete Carroll’s reluctance to leave the ball in Wilson’s hands more led to his eventual departure to Denver.

“I think we were really lucky because watching (Wilson’s) tape for years now, it’s been a lot of the same stuff that I’ve done, both at Green Bay and at Jacksonville,” Hackett explained last month. “So we’ve just combined everything. We want to make a Denver Broncos offense. It’s not just Seattle; it’s not just Green Bay or Jacksonville. It’s really us getting everything out there and finding out what’s right for us. So there’s come components of that, for sure, and in the end, it’s about what Russ does really well and what those wide receivers do.”

Given that, it’s informative to look at how Wilson has distributed targets in Seattle, aiming for the higher side due to the likely increase in volume in Hackett’s offense. Over the last seven seasons, Wilson’s No. 2 wide receiver has received an average of 92 targets per season, but with a high of 129 (to D.K. Metcalf in 2020, Jeudy’s rookie season), it stands to reason that number should go up as much as one extra target per game, giving Jeudy a projected 109 targets this fall. Jeudy’s career average yards per catch is 14.7, but he dropped from 16.5 in 2020 to 12.3 in the Broncos’ extremely conservative passing attack last season. 16.0 yards per reception is a realistic number, given the similar declines from Sutton and Patrick.

Looking at the numbers given targets times yards per target, and targets times catch rate times yards per catch, the center point sits at 987 yards receiving on 66 catches; an impressive tally, but it’s not Pro Bowl-caliber, either. The perception of Jeudy’s 2022 season will, therefore, ride heavily on the number of touchdowns that he’s able to haul in, and his rate of one touchdown every 30 catches is hard to look at as anything but an unfortunate fluke. Sutton (every 14.6 catches) and Patrick (every 11.9 catches) have more standard NFL rates, and given that Patrick is a red-zone specialist, Jeudy would have to land in between the pair at one every 13 catches to reach five on the season.

That’s realistically what the Broncos should expect from Jeudy in his third NFL season — and first with Wilson — this fall: 66 receptions for 987 yards and five touchdowns as the team’s No. 2 wide receiver behind Sutton. Will that be considered a “breakout” season for the Broncos’ faithful — or even for the Broncos themselves?

Regardless, the Broncos should look at these numbers as something of a benchmark; hit them or come close, and Jeudy’s development should merit plenty of enthusiasm for what’s to come. Come up short, and the notion of Jeudy as the Broncos’ next great receiving star may vanish.

In between May and January, of course, there’s plenty of time to improve — and Jeudy knows he’s got the right person in his corner.

“He could help me a lot,” Jeudy said of Wilson last week. “He’s a great quarterback — a Hall-of-Fame quarterback that came to the offense as a leader, (and he’s) getting me better as well. He’s going to help me a lot this year.”

The Broncos are counting on it.

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