Davante Adams is the canary in the coal mine on Rodgers situation
Feb 23, 2022, 6:31 AM
The Denver Broncos are waiting for quarterback Aaron Rodgers to decide on his future. If he wants to be traded, then the Broncos are at the top of the list of interested teams.
On Monday, Rodgers posted on Instagram with a #cryptic message that resounded across all social media. He was feeling grateful and wanted to pass on those feelings of gratitude. Rodgers then went on Pat McAfee’s show to say “no decision will be made today” on Tuesday.
Instead of looking to Rodgers for clues, fans need to watch what’s going on with another player. That’s the true tell.
The old saying “canary in the coal mine” fits when it comes to wide receiver Davante Adams. Google defines canary in the coal mine as “an early indicator of danger or failure.” Adams is set to hit free agency and is Rodgers best friend and most trusted receiver. The Packers want to keep Adams but have serious roadblocks which could prevent that from happening. If they can figure out a deal for Adams, it would go a long way toward keeping Rodgers – much more so than the hiring of Tom Clements last week.
Rather than pour over #cryptic Instagram posts, Broncos fans should look elsewhere for clues as to what Rodgers is going to do. Adams is the proverbial “canary in the coal mine” when it comes to Rodgers. Let’s examine why.
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To Tag or Not To Tag
Starting on Feb. 22, the window to place the franchise tags on players is opened for two weeks. Adams is set to hit free agency when the new league year opens, and he’s reportedly seeking a contract that pays him $30 million per year. Adams is one of the best, if not the best, wide receivers in the league and he should be able to find that sort of contract – either with the Packers or some other team.
The tag is an option for the Packers, but they must have the salary cap space to cover that tag the moment it is placed. With a two-week window, the Packers have to do what I call “salary cap gymnastics” to get that room for Adams. If they were able to clear the space for Adams, placing the tag on him could actually tick off Rodgers who wants his best buddy to get paid.
In 2022, the projected tag for a wide receiver is around $22 million. That’s well short of the $30 million annual average salary that Adams is looking for, but it’s an average of the top five contracts at the position. It’s a healthy number and fully guaranteed, but no player likes to be slapped with the franchise tag because there is no long-term security in the one-year deal.
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No Talks About an Extension
According to Tom Silverstein from the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, there have been no discussion between Adams and the Packers on a contract extension. This is not a great sign for the Packers when it comes to getting something done. It’s not like a contract couldn’t get put together quickly, but at least some back-and-forth this offseason would’ve been nice.
Deals get done at deadlines in the NFL. The deadline for the franchise tag is in two weeks. That means the Packers are on the clock. Getting room to franchise tag Adams is going to take a lot of work. Getting the room to get Adams an extension that pays him what he’s worth is going to be much more difficult.
Over the next two weeks, and specifically before the start of the new league year, Broncos fans should have their ear to the ground when it comes to talks between Adams and the Packers. It would also be wise to tune in to what is going on with other contract situations with the Packers like All-Pro inside linebacker De’Vondre Campbell. If the Packers start to make moves, they will know what’s going on with Rodgers.
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Salary Cap Hell
The Packers have one of the worst salary cap situations in the league. In fact, only the Saints have a worse salary cap situation ($75.9 million over) as of this writing. Green Bay wants to make moves to keep Adams and other players, but they are currently $53.6 million over the cap. The estimate every year is around $7-8 million to sign a draft class, and that means the Packers would need to free up around $60 million in cap space before the draft just to get under the cap and sign all their picks.
Making those big moves would require a lot of dumping of contracts, those with little dead money remaining to not further damage the cap. Perhaps outside linebackers Za’Darius Smith ($27.6 million cap hit, $12.3 million dead money) and Preston Smith ($19.7 million cap hit, $7.25 million dead money) could rework their contracts to get the Packers more salary cap space. That would make a dent – a sizable one to be sure – but restructuring those two deals isn’t enough.
To free up more space, the Packers might release players in an effort to get under the cap. They are truly in salary cap hell, and that makes guys like Randall Cobb ($9.5 million cap hit, $2.7 million dead money) or Billy Turner ($9.1 million cap hit, $4.9 million dead money) perhaps expendable. No matter what the moves, the Packers have a ton of work to do and not much time to do it. If they are keeping Rodgers, then they’ll want to get something done with Adams. If that’s the case, other players are going to get restructured or released – quite a few players. The fact that all things are quiet now on the Packers front is a good sign for the Broncos pursuit of Rodgers.
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Summary
So, what should Broncos fans do while they wait? Well, watching what the Packers do is an indicator of if they’ll be able to keep Rodgers. Also, it wouldn’t be bad to take a break from social networking to keep away from the rumors and the rumblings that may or may not be true. Finally, just do what Rodgers summarized in his #cryptic Instagram post – “To everyone else, Spread love and gratitude you beautiful people, and read a book once in a while too while you’re at it. Love and peace.”
When something happens with Rodgers you’ll know – we’ll all know. Get on with your life while we wait to see what Rodgers – and the Broncos – do in 2022.
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