Avalanche are strong favorites to take down Knights

The Colorado Avalanche are heavy favorites to beat the Golden Knights and punch their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final

May 15, 2026, 1:39 PM

Watch: Why haven't the Avs gotten a deal done with Cale Makar? | Stokley and Evans with Mark Schlereth | 1 min

The Colorado Avalanche are heavy favorites to punch their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final.

Oddsmakers installed the Avalanche as -265 series favorites over the Vegas Golden Knights heading into the Western Conference Final, which opens Wednesday at Ball Arena. That implied probability gives Colorado roughly a 73% chance to advance.

The number models are less emphatic but still lean toward Colorado. MoneyPuck gives the Avalanche a 53.2% chance to win the series against 46.8% for Vegas, a gap that reflects how tight things could be on the ice even if the betting market sees a clear favorite.

The Avalanche earned home-ice advantage as the Presidents’ Trophy winners and enter the series having played just nine playoff games to Vegas’ 12. The Golden Knights had a much different path to the postseason. Vegas fired Bruce Cassidy and brought in John Tortorella with eight games left in the regular season. Since the move, they’ve been red-hot.

The Golden Knights just got past the Anaheim Ducks in six games, closing the series with a 5-1 win Thursday night.

Meanwhile, Colorado swept the Los Angeles Kings in Round 1 and dispatched the Minnesota Wild in five games, capping the series with Brett Kulak’s winner in a 4-3 Game 5 victory Wednesday.

Nathan MacKinnon leads the Avalanche with seven goals and six assists for 13 points through nine games. He’ll face a Vegas team paced by Mitch Marner, who has been electric with seven goals and 11 assists for 18 points in 12 games.

A potential Mark Stone injury is a storyline to monitor for Vegas. If Stone is limited or unavailable for Game 1, the Knights would lose the two-way presence that anchors their top six.

In net, it’s Carter Hart against the tandem of Scott Wedgewood and Mackenzie Blackwood. Hart has shown he can stabilize Vegas in hostile buildings, while Colorado has leaned on its defensive structure to support a rotation between its two goalies.

The only prior playoff meeting between these franchises came in 2021, when Vegas eliminated Colorado in six games. The Avalanche will be looking to settle that score. It was after that series when MacKinnon famously declared he hadn’t won anything yet. Colorado won the Cup the following summer.

Colorado went 2-0-1 against the Golden Knights in the regular season, winning 4-2 on Oct. 31 and 6-5 in a shootout on Dec. 27. Vegas’ lone win came 3-2 in overtime on April 11 at Ball Arena, a game Cale Makar missed.

Makar is dealing with both hip and shoulder issues heading into this series. He hasn’t missed any games, but he has missed shifts, and reporters in Minnesota noticed extra padding under his equipment to protect the shoulder.

Game 1 is Wednesday at 6 p.m. MT on ESPN.