What would the Broncos be getting if they drafted QB Trey Lance?

The Denver Broncos are looking for an upgrade at the quarterback position. Even though new general manager George Paton has publicly stated that he likes last year’s starter Drew Lock, he has almost traded for Matthew Stafford, is likely to aggressively pursue Deshaun Watson and now is traveling to South Dakota for Trey Lance’s pro day on Friday.

Going with Paton is quarterbacks coach Mike Shula and director of college scouting Brian Stark, as they are wanting to see what Lance can do in person. He played in only 17 games in college and just one in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Lance could have used another season of starting to settle fears about lack of experience, but the film from his 2019 season was fantastic and has a lot of people in the scouting community excited about his potential in the NFL.

The Broncos have the No. 9 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, and Lance will probably be off the board at that time. This quarterback class is top heavy and Lance is considered one of the top-five at the position. There might be four of those five first-round graded quarterbacks gone by the time Denver picks.

That means if they fall in love with Lance, they will have to move up to get him – perhaps into the top four.

What would the Broncos get in Trey Lance? Here are my thoughts.

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What I Like

There is a lot to like about Lance’s skill set. Let’s start where it should always begin with quarterbacks – their feet. Lance has good footwork and has worked from under center, meaning that timing and rhythm as a passer after dropping back won’t be a problem. He does a good job of moving his feet as he goes through his progressions and that helps when throwing to the backside of a play.

When Lance is forced to make off-platform throws, he can do it effortlessly – but he doesn’t get lazy and throw off his back foot when no pressure is there. He’s got the arm strength to zip passes down the field at any level.

His accuracy has been outstanding, as Lance only threw one interception in his college career. However, the near 70-percent accuracy and lack of turnovers doesn’t mean that Lance is risk averse. He knows when to be aggressive as a passer and he knows when to check down to underneath receivers. Lance likes the big play and he has excellent pass placement to give his receivers the most yards after the catch possible.

Not only is Lance smart and accurate, but he is also a plus-athlete who can attack a defense with his legs. He rushed for more than 1,000 yards during his 17 starts, and Lance is a threat to score with his legs from anywhere on the field. Not only can he make defenders look silly with speed and juke moves, but Lance also has 225 pounds to run over smaller and unsuspecting opponents. Add in his nose for the red zone as a runner, and you can see why scouts are intrigued by this young quarterback.

The physical skill is easy to see, and the intangibles must be there for a quarterback to play up to his potential in the NFL. The maturity on tape that you see from Lance is phenomenal. He doesn’t seem to get rattled when the pressure is bearing down on him. Lance does make full field reads and runs the Bison’s offense like a well-oiled machine.

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What Needs Work

Even though he’s got upside, Lance does have some things to work on. I’d like to see Lance go through his progressions quicker. There are too many times where he waits for a receiver to make his break, and I didn’t see enough anticipatory throws in his 17 starts.

Lance also tends to take off and run too quickly in my opinion. It’s great that he is a threat to run, but there are times when a short pass to an awaiting tight end or running back (who is wide open) is better than scrambling and taking punishment from defenders. Lance does not run too soon because he doesn’t read the field – again, he’s known as a very smart quarterback – but he does rely on his legs a bit too much than he will be able to in the NFL.

Everything that Lance needs to work on can be fixed with pro coaching. The final thing I’d like to see him cleanup is his throwing motion. He does rear back to throw when he doesn’t need to, and this causes his arm motion to take a bit more time to complete. As aforementioned, he’s got the arm to zip passes from anywhere on the field, so that extra bit of time he takes at times is unnecessary.

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How Long Until He Starts?

This is the big question mark for some out there. Lance is so inexperienced as a passer that time behind a seasoned veteran makes the most sense. The Atlanta Falcons have Matt Ryan as their quarterback, but they are looking towards the future with Ryan near the end of his time with the Falcons. They could make sense as the team to take Lance and let him learn from a pro’s pro like Ryan.

Lance can start from day one in the NFL. However, because he is so raw, I’d rather see him sit for a year than take over after that. This is what the Chiefs did with Patrick Mahomes and that worked out great. Now, Lance is not Mahomes, but one of the most well-respected draft analysts out there, Daniel Jeremiah from NFL Network, compared the Bison quarterback to former No. 1 overall pick Andrew Luck.

The Broncos have Drew Lock as the starter for now, but they have been working to get an upgrade. Paton almost traded for Matthew Stafford and the team thought they had the deal. That was Paton’s first attempt at a big move as GM, so it’s a sign of what he thinks of Lock. The team is going to be aggressive in going after Deshaun Watson and if they landed him then there would be no need to select Lance in the first round.

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Summary

For the Broncos, they need to look at everything through the lens of “How much of an upgrade over Lock in his third year?” If they keep Lock and don’t get Watson, then adding Lance to compete with Lock would be an interesting but rather odd combination.

Adding Lance doesn’t make sense if you want someone to push Lock. He’s a raw rookie who could best be served by getting time to acclimate to the pro level. If you add Lance, it’s to be the eventual starter and replace Lock. If Lock isn’t seen as “the guy” by the team, then adding his replacement to compete with him seems to be a waste of time. If Lance were to beat out Lock, then Lock would be an odd backup – especially if his turnover-prone ways continue. That’s not the type of player you can trust as a reserve player who is one snap away from starting.

Perhaps to move up in the draft, the Broncos would have to deal Lock in addition to their first-round pick. That would clear the way for Lance to be the starter as soon as possible. The Broncos need to find their guy, but the timing of getting Lance is off. That is unless the team is ready to hand the reins over to the rookie and deal with the struggles as he learns.

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