Three keys to the Broncos beating the Chargers at home in Week 18

The Broncos looked better last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, but their valiant effort did not lead to a victory. There’s a chance they could get in the “W” column this week. Sure, that doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things, but it would be nice to see them end the season with some momentum. Many changes are going to happen this offseason, but these players deserve a win based on what they’ve been through and how hard they’ve worked.

In Week 18, the Broncos may be facing an opponent with nothing to play for. The Chargers are currently the no.5 seed on the AFC side of the playoff bracket. With a Baltimore Ravens loss on Sunday, that number will be cemented. The Ravens play in the morning, so by the time the Broncos play we will know if the Chargers have anything to play for.

Broncos interim head coach Jerry Rosburg knows that 5-12 is the best case scenario to finish the 2022 season.
“The 5-12 thing, I don’t think, resonates with them at all. It certainly doesn’t with me. They don’t look backwards. It just doesn’t work that way. You have to look forwards when you’re in this business. There are so many things to play for. I don’t even want to begin to numerate them. They enjoy this game. They are pros. I see it every day. The thing that has happened this year with our roster since I’ve been here is there is constantly a new energy brought by new players and guys that have new opportunities that have never had opportunities. I think that is a feeling that others get because this isn’t guaranteed. We better take advantage of every opportunity that we have to play this game,” Rosburg said.

Here are three keys to victory in Week 18.

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Limit Ekeler

The game script against the Chargers should come down to slowing down RB Austin Ekeler. Depending on what is at stake for the Chargers, Ekeler’s role may be limited against the Broncos on Sunday. If he does play a full role then the Broncos defense needs to make sure Ekeler doesn’t gash them for big plays.

One of the best running backs in the league, Ekeler can rack up a bunch of yards on few touches. He’s not one of those players that needs 20 touches per game to gain multiple touchdowns and 100 yards or more as either a rusher or receiver. A Colorado high school prospect at Eaton, Ekeler played his college football in Gunnison at Western State. Now, Ekeler is a Pro Bowl player who is a headache for opposing defensive coordinators.
Rosburg knows the team can’t look back on what they did in Week 6 against Ekeler.

“For me, it’s so long ago, but I’m certain it’s not so long ago for our coaches that were coaching against them. As you can probably understand, I’m really leaning on our coordinators. I haven’t had the chance yet to watch tape. I love watching football. I found myself enthralled this morning going through the whole game—every play—and writing things down. I had pages and pages of notes, and then I had to condense them into something that I could present to the team at 12:30 [p.m. MST]. It became a triage of what’s the most important thing here because I don’t want to take up all of their time. I’m really looking forward to getting in there and starting to watch tape. Last week I wasn’t really able to do that in getting ready for the Kansas City team because the time did not allow it,” Rosburg said.

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Harass Herbert

The Chargers have a young superstar in QB Justin Herbert. He’s the first player in NFL history to begin his pro career with three consecutive 4,000-yard seasons as a passer. Herbert may not play much – again depending on what the Chargers must play for based on if the Ravens win or lose in Week 18. However, when he does play, Herbert is going to have to be harassed for the Broncos to have the best chance to win.

It’s tough to harass Herbert. He’s smart, and Herbert gets rid of the ball on time and on target. If you blitz him, it usually doesn’t shock him or rattle him as he stands tall in the pocket. Herbert’s brain and understanding of defensive schemes will get the ball out of his hands before those extra rushers can get to him. If you do get to Herbert, then he’s got the athleticism to keep plays alive with his feet. Not only that, Herbert is also very dangerous passing on the run where he can still get the ball there with proper touch and timing.

Advanced data shows that Herbert has been blitzed more than any quarterback in the NFL. Herbert has been blitzed on 171 of his dropbacks this year, yet he’s still able to post some of the best numbers of any quarterback today. He’s been blitzed more than any quarterback, but the Chargers do a good job of protecting Herbert. He does a good job of protecting himself by getting rid of the ball. Currently, Herbert ranks no.14 in the league with a pressure percentage of 22.1 percent. Compare that to the pressure percentage of Russell Wilson (worst in the league at 29.2 percent) on just 127 blitzes this season.

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It’s About Time

The way to beat the Chargers is to keep their offense off the field. They are one of the most dangerous units in the NFL, but they can’t hurt you if they’re getting Gatorade on the sidelines while you’re marching down the field. The Chargers have won four games in a row, but the last time they lost (Week 13 against the Las Vegas Raiders) it’s because they couldn’t stop the run and a balanced attack from their opponent.

In that game against the Raiders, you saw RB Josh Jacobs lead the way with 26 carries for 144 yards and one touchdown. Jacobs’ long run was just 20 yards, so it was 25 carries of hard-fought yards agianst the Chargers for the most part. As a team, the Raiders had 29 rushing attempts and then starting QB Derek Carr had just 30 passing attempts. It’s that type of production from the rushing attack and that sort of balance I’d like to see the Broncos have on Sunday.

Rosburg knows getting a division win – it would be their only one of the season – would be a good way to end the season.

“I recognize the importance of the West, but more importantly for me at this point in time, I recognize the importance of this win for our team and our fans. I don’t care who we’re playing this weekend. It’s still going to be really important. I don’t think you can ramp up the importance of this game just because it’s the Chargers. That doesn’t register with me. Perhaps I don’t have a real good feel for the West. Divisional games are always really important in the National Football League and that should be—and is—a goal of most teams in this league because that’s how you get to the playoffs. That’s the natural path. The past games that this team has suffered through in the AFC West I recognize, but that’s not where I’m looking. I’m looking at this game as an opportunity for our players and our fans to enjoy a win. I want to see our guys in the locker room celebrate with one another. I want to allow them to have a good feeling when they leave the locker room and go see their families. That’s my goal,” Rosburg said.

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