The Broncos defense is off the pace, but there are signs it will improve

Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton made it clear upon drafting Bo Nix in April that two things could best support a rookie quarterback in his development:

“The two biggest allies to that — I believe strongly — are good defensive play and a running game,” Payton said then.

While the ground game has moved in fits and starts — culminating last Thursday night against the Los Angeles Chargers when Payton wrote “RUN IT!!!” on one side of his play-calling sheet — the defense spent most of the season as a backbone of the Broncos’ success.

And while this month it has generated three touchdowns — including two against the Cleveland Browns — it has struggled throughout the last three games, opening the month by allowing Jerry Jeudy to set a record for most receiving yards accumulated at the expense of the Broncos defense, allowing just its third 100-yard rusher of the season in conceding a 107-yard day to Jonathan Taylor and then, last week, collapsing in permitting the Chargers to march to three touchdowns in a 4-drive span of the second half. None of those drives were cheapies, as all covered at least 70 yards — including a 98-yard march that effectively put the game beyond the Broncos’ reach.

It would be easy to chalk up struggles to one game, but something significant has gone askew in each of the three contests. Only Jonathan Taylor’s celebratory gaffe prevented the Broncos from allowing at least 20 points in all three games this month, something the team still hasn’t done since Weeks 3-5 of the 2023 season, which included the infamous 70-point meltdown in Miami.

Last Thursday, it was Chargers receivers running free through gaps in coverage.

“Well, I do think it’s correctable, but some of it is really basic route principles,” Broncos coach Sean Payton said Sunday. “Underneath coverage, busts.

“When you play a good quarterback like [Justin Herbert] you can’t make it easy on him. You get into a bunch look, and you have a route distribution of a shallow or vertical—you have to be able to match that distribution. We didn’t do a good enough job several times by dropping coverage and that’s something we have to look closely at.”

It’s against the pass where the Broncos have had their most significant regression — although advanced metrics indicate it isn’t as bad as the gashes in recent games may appear to be:

YARDS PER PASS PLAY ALLOWED

September-November: 5.25 yards, 2nd of 32 teams
December: 6.71 yards, 26th

PASSING YARDAGE ALLOWED PER GAME

September-November: 199.8 yards, 9th
December: 299.7 yards, 32nd

FIRST-DOWN RATE ON PASS PLAYS

September-November: One first down every 3.52 pass plays, 5th
December: One first down every 2.91 pass plays, 25th

EPA/DROPBACK ALLOWED

September-November: minus-0.105, 2nd
December: minus-0.019, 6th

DROPBACK SUCCESS RATE

September-November: 41.4 percent, 3rd
December: 45.9 percent, 12th

On the ground, the damage isn’t as notable, but a decline is perceptible:

YARDS PER CARRY ALLOWED

September-November: 3.82, 4th
December: 4.13, 10th

RUSHING YARDAGE ALLOWED PER GAME

September-November: 96.2 yards, 6th
December: 114.3 yards, 18th

FIRST-DOWN RATE ON RUN PLAYS

September-November: One first down every 5.12 pass plays, 3rd
December: One first down every 4.89 pass plays, 5th

EPA/RUN PLAY ALLOWED

September-November: minus-0.143, 6th
December: minus-0.255, 4th

RUN PLAY SUCCESS RATE

September-November: 36.4 percent, 7th
December: 28.8 percent, 1st

For the Broncos, it’s the explosive runs doing them in — which is why their success rate remains robust, as most of the damage is happening on a small handful of carries. In Weeks 1-12, just 12 carries gained at least 15 yards — a rate of one every 25.2 carries. Since then, one of every 10.4 runs has resulted in a pickup of 15 or more yards, as the Broncos have allowed eight such plays in December.

Explosive pass plays — gains of 20 or more yards — also are more frequent in December, but not to the same degree, as Denver allows one of those every 12.2 pass plays in December, up from one every 14.8 pass plays in the season’s first three months.

Of course, all of the December work comes without Riley Moss. The Broncos hope he can be back by Saturday against Cincinnati’s potent passing attack.

One player may not be able to stop all the bleeding. But if the Broncos can get the explosives down to a manageable level, they’ll be back in the spot in which they found themselves in Weeks 1-12, when the defense was good enough to carry the team for lengthy stretches. Without that, January success might be impossible to find.

This season will be the first time that Sean Payton has worked with a first-round rookie QB.

“The challenge is exciting, but it’s still, you want good quarterback play. The two biggest allies to that — I believe strongly — are good defensive play and a running game.” pic.twitter.com/s7KCcAaTc2

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) April 26, 2024

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