The Broncos are losing because their defense hasn’t lived up to the hype

At the start of the season, the formula for success that the Broncos would need to use in 2019 was almost universally agreed upon. They’d play conservatively on offense, avoiding turnovers at all costs, so they could rely on their defense to carry them to victory.

The theory made sense. After all, that’s where Denver had invested the heaviest. Six of their eight highest paid players were on that side of the ball. In six out of the nine drafts overseen by John Elway, the Broncos went defense with their first selection. And they had just hired a head coach who was considered a defensive guru.

If Denver was going to win, they were going to do it by leaning on Von Miller, Chris Harris Jr., Derek Wolfe, Bradley Chubb and others. They’d find success if Vic Fangio could find the same magic in the Mile High City that he had created in Chicago, where his defense helped the Bears become a playoff team in 2018.

Currently, the Broncos sit at 5-9. They’re going to finish with a losing record for the third-straight season, the first time that’s happened since 1970-72. And they’ll miss the playoffs for a fourth-consecutive year, something that hasn’t happened since the end of the Kyle Orton era at quarterback.

As a result, one question has to be asked: What went wrong?

For the most part, the finger of blame is going to be pointed at the Broncos offense. And on the surface, this seems easy to understand. After all, Denver is averaging just 17.1 points per game; that’s 30th in the league, ahead of only the Redskins and Bengals, and just behind the Jets and Dolphins. That’s not good company to be keeping.

The Broncos have also used three different quarterbacks this season, two of whom had never thrown an NFL pass prior to making their first start in orange and blue. They traded away their most-experienced playmaker, sending Emmanuel Sanders to San Francisco midway through the season. And they have played the entire year with a hodgepodge offensive line, partially because prized free-agent Ja’Wuan James has only played a handful of snaps across three partial games.

It all adds up to the Broncos being 5-9. Heck, the argument can be made that it’s a miracle the team has that good of a record. It’s even more surprising that they had a chance to win late in four of those nine losses, losing on three last-second field goals and blowing a 20-point halftime lead.

But that analysis is forgetting the preseason formula for success. The Broncos were supposed to win by relying on their defense; nobody expected their offense to be any good, even with Joe Flacco being acquired in the offseason via a trade with the Ravens. Clearly, that hasn’t happened.

One look at the statistics reveals why this is the case.

Overall, the Broncos defense looks pretty good. They’re ranked 12th in the league, giving up 337.4 yards per game. And they’re 10th in points allowed, giving up just 20.3 per outing. That should be good enough.

But that only tells part of the story. When it comes to making plays, something Fangio’s group was being counted on to do this year, they’ve failed miserably.

The Broncos are 18th in sacks, totaling only 34 for the season. That’s a paltry number, considering the fact that they came into the year with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb expecting to hit the number between them. Granted, Denver has played most of the season without Chubb, but they were ineffective rushing the passer even before the linebacker hurt his knee. In the first three games of the season, they didn’t record a single sack.

During that same time, Denver didn’t force a single turnover. They didn’t force and recover a fumble, nor did they intercept a pass. That trend has continued throughout the season.

Overall, the Broncos are 24th in forced turnovers, causing only 16 during the season. They have 10 interceptions, which is 18th in the league, and six fumble recoveries, which is 26th.

That mean Denver’s defense isn’t helping their offense. They’re not setting up a short field. They aren’t scoring points. They aren’t changing the momentum of the game.

Instead, they’re a team that suffers death by paper cut. Slowly but surely, they give up just enough yards and points to get beat, letting teams move down the field at crucial times.

This was evident on Sunday against the Chiefs, when Kansas City scored on their first five possessions. It was apparent in the season opener, when the Raiders put seven points on the scoreboard before ESPN had made the switch from the first Monday night game. It was painfully obvious when they allowed Mitchell Trubisky, Gardner Minshew and Jacoby Brissett to drive for game-winning field goals in the waning moments, the first two pulling off the feat in Denver. And it was impossible not to see when they became the first team in 100 games to lose after leading by 20 or more points at halftime.

For the most part, the Broncos offense has done its job. They have the fifth-fewest turnovers in the NFL, having committed just 15 on the season. So they aren’t putting the defense in a bad spot. And they’ve stake the team to a late lead in four games, which were all squandered not because of an offensive blunder.

The Broncos are having a bad season because the side of the ball they were expecting to be great has been average, at best. A Denver defense that was supposed to be dominant has been anything but that, from the first game of the season through Sunday’s embarrassing loss at Kansas City.

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