The biggest question mark for the Broncos in 2020 is a bit of a surprise

The past few weeks, the Broncos have become a trendy team. From coast to coast, national radio and television commentators have jumped on Denver’s bandwagon, picking them to make some noise in 2020.

There are certainly plenty of reasons for the optimism. The Broncos still boast one of the best defenses in the league, while their offense has been largely retooled in the past two years.

That said, there are also a lot of things that could derail the train. Drew Lock only has five games under his belt, so there’s a chance he’ll stumble in year two. Two rookie wide receivers are being counted on to be productive right out of the gate, but they could struggle to make the transition from college to the NFL. And the Broncos tackles remain a concern, as Ja’Wuan James has to prove that he can stay healthy, while Garett Bolles has to cut down on the penalties that have plagued him during his first three seasons.

But none of those things are the biggest worry heading into this season. Instead, the transition at offensive coordinator is atop the list of potential problems.

That’s not to say Pat Shurmur was a bad hire. After all, he’s been a coach in the NFL since 1999, having served as the OC for three different franchises and assuming the top job on three occasions. On paper, he’s clearly more qualified than the man he’s replacing, as Rich Scangarello had never been an offensive coordinator at the NFL level before getting the job with the Broncos last season.

For all of Denver’s struggles on offense last season – and there were plenty, given that they finished 28th in the league in both yards and points – there were some positive signs toward the end of the season. In particular, Scangarello was able to coax good play out of his young quarterback.

During Lock’s four wins, the Broncos averaged 26.0 points per game. That’s more than 10 points better than they fared in the other 12 games.

In those same contests, the rookie quarterback threw seven touchdowns, to just three picks, while posting one 300-yard game and finishing with a QB rating above 90 on three occasions. That kind of production will win a lot of games.

Scangarello kept things simple for Lock, allowing him to just play, rather than thinking too much. He also designed game plans that got the ball out of his quarterback’s hands quickly, which resulted in Lock being sacked just five times in five games.

But now, Denver will be implementing a new system. It’ll be the second for Lock, Noah Fant and Dalton Risner. It’ll be the third for Courtland Sutton and Phillip Lindsay. And it’ll be the fourth for Bolles. That’s a lot for young players to absorb.

If the Broncos were making the transition to a coach who has had nothing but success, having to challenge the players to learn another offense wouldn’t be a big deal. The gain would be worth the pain.

But during Shurmur’s 11 seasons as an NFL head coach and/or offensive coordinator, he’s produced fairly mediocre results. On only three occasions has his offense been in the top 10 in scoring, while only cracking the top 10 in yardage twice. Contrarily, he’s guided offenses that have finished 23rd or worse in points five times and yardage on six occasions.

Statistically, Shurmur’s best offenses were in 2013 and ’14 with the Eagles. Philadelphia was in the top five in both points and yardage during both of those seasons. However, Chip Kelly was the head coach during both of those campaigns, which means Shurmur’s impact was minimized; Philly was running the system that Kelly brought from Oregon.

The only other time Shurmur has produced a top-10 offense in either points or yardage was 2017. That year, he did a masterful job of getting the most out of Case Keenum, as the Vikings were forced to play their backup quarterback most of the season. In 14 starts, Keenum threw for 3,547 yards and 22 touchdowns, while tossing just seven interceptions.

That campaign, as well as the year he got out Nick Foles in 2013 – when the journeyman quarterback threw 27 touchdowns and just two picks – are reasons for optimism. They show was Shurmur can do with less-than-franchise quarterbacks. He also proved that he can work with young QBs last year, as he helped Daniel Jones throw for 3,027 yards, 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions as a rookie.

It’s not as though Shurmur doesn’t have some credentials. But he doesn’t have any rapport with Lock, something that Scangarello clearly did. Once the ex-OC didn’t have a statue (Joe Flacco) or overmatched player (Brandon Allen) at quarterback, he was able to put together a relatively dynamic offense.

Shurmur will be expected to top those results. With the additions of wideouts Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler in the draft, as well as running back Melvin Gordon in free agency, the new offensive coordinator has a lot more to work with from day one. Thus, he should be expected to produce better results than Scangarello.

And the bar isn’t what the Broncos did for the entire season in 2019. Rather, it’s what they did during the final five weeks, with Lock at the helm.

During those games, Scangarello did a very good job of getting a lot out of his rookie quarterback. Shurmur has to do the same.

His ability to click with Lock is the key to the season. If he can do that, the Broncos will be good, living up to hype that has surrounded them this offseason. If he can’t, then Denver will most likely struggle and the decision to move on from Scangarello will prove to have been a mistake.

What’s the biggest question mark for the Broncos heading into the 2020 season? It’s whether or not Pat Shurmur is the right man for the job.

Related

In Broncos loss, they got a win in something specific that truly matteredBo Nix happy with ‘solid’ first TD drive, says return ‘was like riding a bike’Sean Payton unhappy after Packers demolish Broncos, sends message to startersBroncos waste no time getting Jaylen Waddle involved in his preseason debutBo Nix throws a TD, leads two scoring drives in return from broken ankleBroncos CB Moss leaves game with rib injury