Sean Payton calls playoff experience “a myth”

Sean Payton isn’t buying the notion that his young Denver Broncos will be at a disadvantage when they host the Buffalo Bills in Saturday’s AFC Divisional Round matchup. In fact, the veteran coach is calling out what he considers the conventional wisdom of the postseason as nothing more than make-believe.

“Myth number three, postseason experience is important,” Payton said Tuesday, trying to debunk the common belief that playoff-tested teams hold an edge. “Obviously, they played in it. But historically, when you go back and look at teams and records, and you look at rosters — there’s about eight of these myths.”

The top-seeded Broncos (14-3) will host Buffalo (12-5) on Saturday at Empower Field at Mile High, a rematch of last year’s Wild Card Round when the Bills routed Denver 31-7 in Orchard Park. This time, the Broncos have home-field advantage after tying for the league’s best record and earning a first-round bye as the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

But those advantages carry an asterisk, according to Payton. He labeled Myth No. 1 as home field being a massive advantage, saying it wasn’t.

“Myth number two is that [rest] ensures a fast start. It doesn’t,” he said. “We’re playing a team that’s coming off one of their biggest wins in the last 10 years, and so we’ve got to earn a fast start and take advantage of the energy, take advantage of the rest, but it has to be done out here. And today was a good start.”

Payton didn’t list the other five myths on Tuesday.

Buffalo punched its ticket to Denver with a 27-24 road victory over Jacksonville on Sunday, with quarterback Josh Allen orchestrating a game-winning drive that included a critical seven-yard quarterback sneak. It secured the franchise’s first road playoff win in over three decades.

Payton was effusive in his praise of Allen, whom he called “one of the stars of our league.”

“He’s hard to bring down, he’s powerful, and he’s probably first in the league — oh, second — in explosive [plays] where he climbs, moves and then tracks somebody,” Payton said. “He’s got tremendous legs, he’s a fantastic competitor. It’s been a while since I’ve seen someone gain seven yards on a sneak.”

But he didn’t praise his playoff experience, which includes last year’s AFC Championship game, because that is hooey.

Experience or just Allen, Vegas believes in the Bills. The Broncos are 1.5-point home underdogs, making Denver the first No. 1 seed to be an underdog in the divisional round in nine years. Payton brushed aside questions about the betting line.

“I can’t control that. I don’t pay attention to that,” he said.

Payton noted that while the Broncos added key pieces like linebacker Dre Greenlaw after last year’s playoff defeat, his team knows the challenge ahead.

“We were looking to improve our team. We knew we were playing a real good team a year ago,” Payton said. “There are a lot of things that we felt coming away from a game like that, that ‘Hey, we’re not there yet, but we need to improve.’ We’re playing the number one rushing team in football, and it’s the runner, it’s the scheme. They’re very well coached.”

Greenlaw added a lot of good playoff experience to the Broncos after twice making the Super Bowl with the 49ers. And if the Broncos get to the Big Game, it’s right back Greenlaw goes to Santa Clara on Feb. 8.

But it won’t be Greenlaw’s past pushing the Broncos forward into the future.

A study published in the Journal of Sports Economics found that the number of games played in past playoffs has little effect on the outcome of a playoff game. Though one logistic regression model pushes back at Payton, finding that playoff experience within the previous two seasons was statistically significant in predicting playoff success.

Whether the numbers back it or not, Payton’s real message is psychological for his young group. He doesn’t want his players impacted by any outside noise, even one so common as “playoff experience.” Call it a myth, not an excuse to lose — a smart move for the coach seeking to become the first to win Super Bowls for two different franchises.

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