Broncos playoff hopes took a sizable hit during Week 3

The Los Angeles Chargers have taken an early stranglehold on the AFC West by beating all their division foes in just three weeks.

The Chargers’ success, coupled with everyone else being 1-2, means they already have the second-best chance to make the playoffs in the NFL at 94%, according to ESPN. Their probability of winning the West has already shot up to 73%. And they only run into two playoff teams from last year between now and December, meaning they have a clear runway to stack wins and extend their lead.

The Chargers’ lead is so noteworthy that it is notable that last week was the first week the Chiefs were not the favorites to win the division since Week 10 of the 2021 season. Kansas City has won the West nine straight times, with the last non-KC winner being the 2015 Broncos.

The Broncos had their chance and still do have a chance this year. But it’s going to be an uphill climb after blowing the lead during Sunday’s fourth quarter and losing for a second-straight week on a walk-off field goal. Because of the Broncos’ late-game issues, ESPN tabs them as more likely to miss than make the playoffs, with odds of dancing at 49%.

Playoffstatus.com actually dropped the Broncos’ chances to 38%, down from 46% last week. And taking nearly as big a hit were their chances of getting to Round 2 of the NFL Playoffs, slipping from 26% last week to 19% this week. That latter piece of data suggests that where the Broncos have really lost out is on their chances of hosting a playoff game. Instead, if they get it, they may be facing a powerhouse on the road like they did last year in the Bills.

It’s a long season, and those in Broncos Country still have reason for hope. Yet, it’s worth pointing out the significant damage that was done to the Broncos by two AFC foes walking them off at the buzzer in consecutive weeks.

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