If I were GM of the Broncos: How to get Denver back on track

It’s a tough time to be a sports fan in the Mile High City. For the most part, the local teams are mired in a championship drought, one that is moving into its third decade.

Since the turn of the century, the biggest programs and franchises in the Denver area have won just two championships. The Avalanche hoisted the Stanley Cup in 2001, while the Broncos lifted a Lombardi Trophy in 2015.

In that same time, fans in the Boston area have attended 12 championship parades. Those in Los Angeles have been to nine, the Bay Area has seen six, and Pittsburgh and Chicago have had five each.

During these lean years, most of the teams haven’t even been close to winning a title. The Avs haven’t returned to the Stanley Cup Finals in 20 years. The Nuggets have never been to the NBA Finals. The Rockies played in one World Series. The Broncos have reached a pair of Super Bowls. And the Buffs haven’t been in the national championship conversation since barely missing out on the title game after the 2001 season.

It wasn’t always like this. When Y2K was the biggest worry in America, the Avalanche were a perennial contender, the Broncos were a year removed from winning back-to-back Super Bowls, CU was a national power and the Rockies were spending big on free agents. Only the Nuggets were lagging behind.

But it doesn’t have to be this way. There simply needs to be a shift in mindset. A championship mentality has to return.

How does that happen? Well, one of the keys is having the right person in charge of building the teams. People who can make the most out of their circumstances, rather than complain about them (Dan O’Dowd), need to be in place.

In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at what that kind of general manager would look like in a five-part series. Today’s installment…

If I was the GM of the Broncos

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Establish a Criteria for Evaluating Players

It’s not about valuing one position over another. It’s about knowing how to build a team, a group of 53 men who can work together toward a common goal.

The biggest factor in that is finding people who are football players first and foremost. They can have other interests. They can come various shapes and sizes. But football has to be their No. 1 objective, ahead of fame, partying, money or the other trappings of the NFL.

This has been clear throughout franchise history. John Elway, Terrell Davis, Bill Romanowski, Shannon Sharpe, Gary Zimmerman, Steve Atwater and other greats on the teams who won Super Bowls XXXII and XXXIII were from all sorts of backgrounds. They had wildly different personalities. But they all had one thing in common: They loved to play the game.

Contrast that to the team’s recent busts. Paxton Lynch had more physical talent than Peyton Manning, but he didn’t have 1% of the passion for the game. It’s no surprise which one is headed to Canton and which one flamed out of the league.

Measurables matter, but they can’t be the deciding factor. Does the player fight to the clock reads 0:00 in every game? Do his coaches and teammates rave about his work ethic? Does he make those around him better?

Find 53 guys who check all of those boxes. Then, find a coach who can make something out of that batch of ingredients.

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Hire a Coach with Energy

It’s not about age. Pete Carroll is the oldest coach in the NFL. Yet at age 67, his teams are still thriving.

Why? Because he has energy.

This allows him to inspire and lead. It creates an environment of innovation and new ideas. And it provides a culture where every little detail matters.

Today’s athletes are different. They aren’t better or worse to deal with, just different. So the head coach needs to know how to work with people. He needs to know who needs a kick in the backside and who needs a hug. He needs to genuinely care about them as people. He needs to thrive on seeing his players exceed their own expectations for themselves. He needs to be able to get people to believe in something bigger than the individual.

The NFL is constantly changing. Offenses are becoming more and more like what is seen in college football. Successful quarterbacks are more dual-threat than pocket passers. That requires a coach to evolve, on both sides of the ball. It’s not about systems. It’s about adjusting, to both the changes in the sport and the personnel on the roster.

Sweating the small stuff takes effort. It requires a constant and maniacal attention to detail. It’s having a passion for doing the things that most people overlook or don’t want to deal with, and wanting to be perfect in those areas. In football, this pops up in all sorts of places. It’s situational awareness, knowing what to do at all times. It’s game management, having a plan for whatever may arise. It’s not accepting mental errors, selfish penalties or missed assignments. There has to be a zero tolerance policy. But mostly, there has to be someone worrying about the little things.

Contrast that to the current head coach. Vic Fangio doesn’t fit this description in any area. He’s a good X’s and O’s coach, allegedly. But he’s not a people person. He’s not an innovator. He hasn’t shown an ability to run a finely tuned operation.

Who does fit that criteria? Well, I’d start with Matt Campbell. He’s transformed the Iowa State program, accomplishing unprecedented things in Ames, by having all three of these qualities.

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Restructure Von Miller’s Contract

Right now, the Broncos only have $19 million in projected cap space for 2021. That’s not going to cut it, as there’s a lot of work to do (see below).

Dealing with the most-costly item on the expense ledger is one way to increase that number. Coming off of a season in which he didn’t play a down due to a foot injury, it’s not financially responsible to have Miller play under a contract that counts $22.2 million toward the cap.

It’s the last year of the deal, so perhaps the former Super Bowl MVP is looking for some long-term security. He’d like to have some guarantees past 2021.

That would look something like a four-year, $44-million deal, with $22 million (what he was supposed to count toward the cap in ’21) fully guaranteed. That would be team friendly, Von-friendly and would keep the best defensive player in franchise history in a Broncos uniform.

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Make a Decision at Safety

Currently, Kareem Jackson is slated to earn $12.8 million next season. The Broncos other starter at safety, Justin Simmons, is an unrestricted free agent. Keeping the Pro Bowl player on the roster will require a deal in the $16 million per year neighborhood.

Denver can’t afford both players. That’s too much money to have tied up in safeties.

I’d choose Simmons. Jackson makes more “impact” plays, but his counterpart is more consistent. Plus, Simmons is also the long-term play. Invest in the future.

Show players that they’ll be rewarded for becoming really good players. It sends a bad message if homegrown stars have to go elsewhere to get a big payday.

Then, I’d draft a safety in the second or third round. It’s a position where rookies can excel. Someone like Florida State’s Hamsah Nasirildeen would fit the bill.

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Cut the Fat

The Broncos have some high-priced players who simply aren’t playing up to expectations. They need to be released to free up cap space.

Who falls into this category?

Start with Jurrell Casey. After being acquired from the Titans, the five-time Pro Bowl selection appeared in only three games for the Broncos in 2020, recording just 14 tackles and zero sacks. Cutting him frees up $12.9 million in cap space.

Backup quarterback Jeff Driskel is another candidate. There’s $2.5 million that can be freed up if he’s released.

Mike Purcell is a great story, but he’s also a potential cap casualty. He doesn’t perform like a player slated to count $3.7 million against the number.

As for the team’s expensive cornerbacks, I’d keep them. A.J. Bouye ($11.9 million) and Bryce Callahan ($7 million) could be released to free up cap space. But could they be replaced for cheaper? That’d be difficult. Even if the Broncos draft a cornerback in the first round, having veteran mentors on the roster would be beneficial. Then in 2022, the team can turn the page to the younger cornerbacks.

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Re-Sign Priority Free Agents

The Broncos have a number of key contributors who will be available to other teams when free agency starts. Keeping them in Denver should be a priority.

They’re value players. They play big roles, but don’t carry big-ticket salaries.

In addition, they’re investments. The Broncos have developed them; the organization needs to reap the rewards of those efforts.

In order, here’s who should be retained:

1. A.J. Johnson (ILB)
2. Tim Patrick (WR)
3. Jeremiah Attaochu (Edge)
4. DeMarcus Walker (DL)
5. DeVante Bausby (CB)

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Get Into the 21st Century

In February 2020, the Broncos parted ways with Mitch Tanney, the team’s director of football analytics. It signaled a change in direction, away from computer-driven statistical analysis on the football side of the operation. That’s a mistake.

Denver needs to rely on analytics more. Not less. And this needs to extend beyond player evaluations.

The Broncos need an analytics person who is part of the coaching staff. They need to be providing instant feedback on in-game decisions.

In 2020, Denver was all over the place when it came to these situations. They handled timeouts differently from game to game. They didn’t know when to kick an extra point and when to go for two. They didn’t know if a long field was a better option than punting. They had no consistency when it came to fourth-and-short decisions.

That can’t be the case. Vic Fangio followed his hunches. Consequently, there was no rhyme or reason to the Broncos instant decisions. An analytics coach would eliminate that problem.

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In terms of short-term decision and long-term vision, both of which the GM has to establish and manage, those moves would get the Broncos back on track

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