Broncos vs. Raiders: Breaking down Denver’s game plan on Sunday

Last week, the Broncos got back on the winning track against the hapless Lions. In a game they were supposed to win at home, they beat Detroit, doing so in convincing fashion. That’s a good sign for a team that is trying to right the ship and get back where most Broncos fans expect them to be in 2020 – in the playoff hunt.

On Sunday, the Broncos can spoil the postseason dreams of the Raiders. It’s a long-shot scenario for Oakland and will take a win plus about four other things happening for them to make the postseason, but the chance is there. The Broncos can shut the door on those chances with a victory at Empower Field at Mile High.

Let’s take a look at how the Broncos will attack the Raiders on both sides of the ball.

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When the Broncos Run the Ball

The Broncos finally went back to feeding Phillip Lindsay the ball! Against the Lions in Week 16, Lindsay got 19 carries, which he turned into 109 yards rushing. It’s only the second 100-yard game of the 2019 season for Lindsay as this team has not used him quite enough as they should.

Lindsay is now 42 yards away from back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons as a runner. This is simply unheard of for an undrafted free agent and further cements the importance of Lindsay to this offense. Earlier in the year, the Broncos wanted a running-back-by-committee approach with Lindsay and Royce Freeman. However, since Week 10 Lindsay has received 69 percent of the team’s rushes on average while Freeman barely touches the ball.

Against the Raiders, I would love to see another game where Lindsay was the featured player in the backfield with nearly 20 carries instead of his average since Week 10 (around 15 rushes per game). Freeman hasn’t had double-digit carries since Week 8 and I feel the team needs to look for an upgrade in the backfield to go along with Lindsay in 2020.

RT this is Phillip Lindsay helped you win a Fantasy Football Championship today: pic.twitter.com/MLD0wh0hdI

— CU Buffs Stats (@CUBuffStats) December 23, 2019

The Raiders rush defense has gotten much better during the last three weeks. In that time, the Raiders have the No. 4 rush defense in the league and only allow an average of 84.5 yards per game on the ground. On the season, they’ve allowed 100.0 yards rushing per game from opponents, but they are clearly getting better. Last week, Chargers running backs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler combined for just 26 yards rushing.

Defensive tackles Jonathan Hankins and P.J. Hall are doing a good job of stuffing the rushing lanes up front, and their ever-changing group of linebackers are doing a good job of cleaning up after that. This can be a dominant unit, but some team just avoid going against the Raiders on the ground because you can beat them up so much with the pass – more on that later.

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When the Broncos Pass the Ball

Drew Lock has a 3-1 record as a starter and he’s given Broncos fans something they haven’t had in a long time – hope. He has the makings of a real franchise quarterback and Lock should be able to showcase his skill against a Raiders pass defense that is one of the worst in the league.

Lock can do that going to a variety of weapons. Last week against the Lions, he was in game-manager (and not gunslinger) mode, spreading the ball around to 10 different receivers.

Courtland Sutton continues to draw an opponent’s best cornerback (usually with safety help over the top), so Lock is having to spread the ball around a bit more than we saw Joe Flacco or Brandon Allen do during their time as starters for the Broncos this year. That being said, Sutton has still earned roughly 25 percent of the passes Lock has thrown over the last four games. Against the Raiders, Sutton should be able to turn in a fine performance and put an exclamation mark on his 2019 breakout season.

Besides Sutton, watch out for rookie tight end Noah Fant. He’s the team’s No. 2 receiver this season, partly because of his skill set and partly because he has to be. No other receiver in this group of pass-catchers has distinguished themselves but last week we did see some glimpses from second-year receiver DaeSean Hamilton. Lock clearly trusts Hamilton, and perhaps we could see another solid game from the young receiver who has turned in a disappointing sophomore effort up to this point.

Power read shovel from the Broncos. This play gained notoriety a few seasons ago at the college level and in the NFL with the Chiefs and Alex Smith. Drew Lock will ride and shuffle with the back while reading the defensive end. If he squeezes give it, widens throw shovel pass. pic.twitter.com/SZwVOjeqgg

— XandOJunkie (@Spread_it_Out) December 23, 2019

The Raiders pass defense can be abused. They are last in the league in terms of net yardage allowed per attempt and seven of the 15 quarterbacks who have faced the Raiders have thrown for 275 yards or more on relatively low volume. They have given up 32 passing touchdowns, a mark good for third-most in the NFL this season.

The secondary struggles in downfield coverage, and that’s a spot the Broncos could pick on them early and often – especially using “sail” concepts that get receivers deep on corner routes. Lock could have another strong day against a Raiders secondary that gives up big plays through the air. Oh yeah, the Raiders don’t get after the passer much either with their sack-per-passing-attempt rate of 3.2 percent ranking No. 28 in the NFL after 15 games.

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When the Raiders Run the Ball

The Raiders are likely to be without their star rookie running back Josh Jacobs. He had surgery on Christmas Day to clean up an infection and he’s also been dealing with a shoulder injury for the last few weeks and has missed some time. With the playoffs on the line, perhaps Jacobs will try to tough it out but this is not the same player he was earlier in the year when he was healthy.

If Jacobs misses the game or is severely limited, then the Raiders will turn to DeAndre Washington once again. Washington is a more compact runner than Jacobs and doesn’t bring the same power to the field. However, he doesn’t need to come off the field and can be productive as a runner or receiver out of the backfield.

DeAndre Washington with a 5 yard TD run!

I see nothing but black jerseys in the crowd. #RaiderNation always reppin 💪#OAKvsLAC pic.twitter.com/GVL5iZwnSS

— Mitchell Renz (@MitchellRenz365) December 22, 2019

The Broncos run defense has a much different look from the unit that went up against the Raiders in Week 1. They are up-and-down against the run and over the last eight weeks, Denver has allowed six different running backs to gain 65 yards or more while averaging 4.4 yards per carry.

They are beat up on the defensive line and the Raiders may just want to wear down the Broncos up front. This means linebackers Alexander Johnson and Todd Davis could be in for big workloads as they work feverishly to stop the run.

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When the Raiders Pass the Ball

The Raiders don’t have a great array of weapons in the passing game. Quarterback Derek Carr has yet to reach the 300-yard mark in 2019, despite sitting second league-wide in completion rate (71 percent). It’s a low-volume passing attack that doesn’t threaten defenses that much vertically.

Carr was supposed to have superstar Antonio Brown to throw to this season, but that didn’t even last through training camp before Brown was released. That means their planned No. 2 wide receiver, Tyrell Williams, has had to be the top target and that’s just not his game.

Rookie Hunter Renfrow, who always reminded me of Brandon Stokley, has emerged as a nice option for Carr (when healthy). The Raiders also get quality play from tight end Darren Waller who had his breakout game against the Broncos back in Week 1. Proving to be no flash in the pan, Waller has been a consistent force in the Raiders passing attack.

Mini highlight reel of Hunter Renfrow today. “3rd & Renfrow” has been huge today. Derek Carr and the this offense have missed him almost as much as #RaiderNation has.

(All these videos have 🔊🔊🔊) pic.twitter.com/2XP2UVNOCI

— Chris Reed (@ChrisReed_NFL) December 22, 2019

The Broncos pass defense is much better against tight ends than it has been in the past. Waller was able to gash them for 70 yards (on seven catches) in Week 1 and he might be able to post similar numbers here at the end of the regular season.

The Denver pass defense has allowed just 6.8 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks so far in 2019. Chris Harris Jr. has had a down season for his standards, but he still should be able to blot out Williams, or Renfrow, or Waller, or anyone he’s tasked with covering on Sunday. The Raiders don’t threaten a defense vertically but they might want to take some chances since the Broncos will be without safety Kareem Jackson for the second game in a row.

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Summary

In 2019, there is nothing sweeter for the Broncos than knocking the Raiders out from the playoff picture. Even though the Raiders are motivated by a potential playoff berth, the Broncos have plenty of motivation themselves.

Win against the Raiders and Lock finishes his rookie season an amazing 4-1 as a starter. The hope for the future is already bright, but Broncos Country will be especially excited if Lock can get another win – this time against a hated rival with playoffs on the line.

Feed Lindsay to get him his 1,000-yard season and do plenty of damage with big plays on Sunday. That should be the game plan for offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello. The first-time OC has had an up-and-down year as a play-caller, but he could really strut his stuff with a well-called game in Week 17.

Bottle up the rushing attack of the Raiders – with or without Jacobs in the backfield. Limit the big plays that the Raiders might attempt in the passing game, and the Broncos should come away victorious at home.

I’ve got the Broncos by a score of 28-13 on Sunday.

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All quotes and injury/practice observations obtained firsthand. Record/statistical information provided via email from the Denver Broncos unless otherwise noted. Game screenshots from NFL Game Pass. Contract and salary-cap information provided by Spotrac.com. Transaction history provided by ProSportsTransactions.com.

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