Broncos got a warning in last two games that Payton made sure they heard

The Broncos’ last two games served as a reminder to Sean Payton: Lose the turnover battle and prepare to lose where it really counts, on the scoreboard.

Against the remnants of the Kansas City Chiefs, they survived victorious despite a first-quarter tip-drill interception leaving them at minus-1 for the evening in turnover margin. But the short field and subsequent 35-yard touchdown drive it yielded represented nearly the entire reason why the Broncos found themselves in a tie game with two minutes remaining instead of winding down the clock on a comfortable Christmas win; to that point, the Chiefs had just 95 yards from scrimmage.

It was a game the Broncos had no business losing — or even being pushed. But one big turnover narrowed the chasm.

Four days earlier in the loss to Jacksonville, the Broncos were minus-2. A fourth-quarter interception was effectively a turnover on downs, coming on a fourth-and-2 as the Broncos were in comeback mode. But Bo Nix’s fumble in the backfield with 2:06 left in the third quarter was crushing; the Jaguars capitalized on the short field for a field goal and pushed their lead to three scores. Denver could overcome such a fourth-quarter gap against the woebegone Giants; against a legitimate contender, no such rally materialized.

But in both of these cases, the Broncos failed to generate any takeaways to narrow the deficit. And with a minus-5 turnover margin, the Broncos are tied for 25th in the NFL.

Consider this: The average record for teams with a minus-5 turnover margin through 16 games since 1978 (when the NFL expanded its schedule to 16 games) is 7-9. Just 10 of the 60 teams with a minus-5 turnover margin made the postseason, a 16.7-percent figure.

And none had a better mark through 16 games than the Broncos. The 1999 Colts and the 2022 Chiefs matched them.

To go one step further, the Broncos’ 13-3 record is the second-best for any team since 1978 with a negative turnover margin of any kind — minus-1 or worse. Only the 2001 St. Louis Rams were better, as the “Greatest Show on Turf” went 14-2 despite a minus-10 turnover margin.

What the Broncos have done despite their turnover margin — and specifically, without generating takeaways — is remarkable. No team has forced fewer fumbles; just one has recovered fewer. Those numbers are stunning given that the Broncos lead the NFL in sacks, a statistic about which Payton pointedly didn’t want to hear Monday.

That’s where the deficit lies. The Broncos are a respectable 12th in turnovers with 17; they could be better, but that’s not where the glaring glitch is.

Instead, it’s in a defense that generates pressure and wreaks havoc but hasn’t created the game-flipping, explosive plays it did in the previous two years, and thus sits ahead of just three teams in takeaways with 12.

It’s rare to overcome a negative turnover margin to win it all. But it can be done.

SOME TEAMS, INCLUDING THE 2015 BRONCOS, OVERCAME IT

The “No-Fly Zone” Broncos had a minus-4 turnover margin in finishing the regular season 12-4. It didn’t stop Gary Kubiak from piloting them to a Lombardi Trophy. And the last two Chiefs world-title teams finished in the red in turnover margin.

Teams helmed by Hall of Fame coaches such as Joe Gibbs (1987 Washington), Tom Flores (1983 Los Angeles Raiders), John Madden (1976 Oakland) and Chuck Noll (1979 Pittsburgh) are in the club of Super Bowl winners with negative turnover margins in the regular season. The 2007 New York Giants, led by Tom Coughlin, are there too; as is the case with Chiefs coach Andy Reid, he should be a Hall of Famer at some point, based on standards already established for Hall of Fame viability. The other member of this club is the 1970 Baltimore Colts, led by Don McCafferty, whose career was cut short by his death while he was coaching the Detroit Lions four years later.

So, teams must have savvy, sound coaching to overcame a negative turnover margin and win it all. The Broncos clearly have that, as one can’t question Payton’s work there in rebuilding the Broncos from a 5-win disaster to a team with the league’s best record in 35 months.

But the ideal scenario would be for his defense to find the takeaway touch it had in the previous two years, when it finished tied for 12th (2023) and tied for seventh (2024) in forcing turnovers. That allowed the Broncos to finish plus-4 and plus-6 in 2023 and 2024, respectively, in turnover margin.

If the Broncos defense and special teams can flip their 2025 takeaway-generating form back to where it was in 2024 when January arrives, they have a championship formula. For now, it remains the missing element, and Payton knows it.

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