Broncos predicted to stumble to last place in AFC West in ESPN season simulation

Last year, ESPN’s FPI metric continually had the Broncos in a spot well below what their record would dictate.

So, it should come as no surprise that the Broncos should start the 2026 season near the middle of the pack in FPI. But it’s in a single simulation of the season where it becomes fair for Broncos fans to wonder if ESPN’s computers are infected with malware.

That’s because it has the Broncos finishing at 7-10 — with the same mark as the Las Vegas Raiders.

Yes, the simulation about which ESPN wrote has the Broncos going from first to (a tie for) worst in the AFC West.

“They regressed badly and finished 7-10,” the ESPN.com article with the season projection writes.

The simulation calls for a Super Bowl duel between two teams without a Lombardi Trophy to their name: the Detroit Lions and — yes — the Los Angeles Chargers, who are slotted to finish second in the AFC West behind the resurgent Kansas City Chiefs.

But as the article reminded readers, it was just a single simulation — because “Life is a single simulation, after all,” as the piece maintained.

The result of what ESPN described as “thousands” of simulations was a projection for the Broncos to win 9.2 games and lose 7.8, so, this individual season was on the lower end of the possibility range.

And realistically, given that no Sean Payton-led team has ever failed to win at least seven games, one can reasonably accept 7-10 as the absolute floor, the record that the Broncos would accumulate if almost everything possible goes wrong.

Still, finishing in a tie for the division with the RAIDERS?! Broncos Country might suffer a meltdown of rarely-witnessed proportions. And certainly it would rank among the most disappointing seasons in club history, given the soaring expectations that exist.

But take heart. Last year’s simulation missed on the Broncos’ win output by a whopping five games — although it had them winning the division over the Chiefs on a tiebreaker. It also had Buffalo defeating Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LX. Swing and a miss.

A year earlier, it had the Broncos finish 8-9 — well above what most prognosticators had for them — but that was still two victories shy of their actual total.1

WHERE BRONCOS STAND IN THE FPI RANKINGS

Last year, ESPN’s FPI was generally not enamored with the Broncos. For much of the year, it had Kansas City well ahead of Denver and in the NFL’s top-three teams despite the Chiefs’ mediocre form.

Meanwhile, the Broncos finished the season 15th in FPI despite winning 14 regular-season games, a total that no other team exceeded. The 8-9 Baltimore Ravens were seven spots above Denver; the 6-11 Cincinnati Bengals were two positions higher than the Broncos at No. 13.

Kansas City’s FPI didn’t sink to the bottom of the ocean like a boulder until after Patrick Mahomes suffered his season-ending knee injury; ultimately the Chiefs finished in the No. 20 spot.

Fast-forward to the present day, with the NFL’s regular-season opener between the Patriots and Seahawks at Seattle looming within 48 hours. The FPI metric is fond of neither team that took part in last season’s AFC Championship Game, placing the Patriots 14th and the Broncos 15th as the season dawns.

“Denver is coming off a very impressive season, but the FPI believes regression is coming,” ESPN’s Seth Walder wrote in June. “One major red flag was the Broncos’ 12-3 record (including playoffs) in one-score games last season — a rate that is unlikely to continue.”

Kansas City, meanwhile, is placed by FPI in the No. 9 spot.

FPI ranks the Broncos offense 17th, their special teams 20th and the defense seventh.

ESPN describes FPI as “a prediction system for the NFL. Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency, as measured by expected points added per play, and that rating is the basis for FPI’s game-level and season-level projections.”

In the explainer, ESPN notes that the preseason ratings also include previous years’ efficiencies for offense, defense and special teams, returning starters, changes to the head coach, coordinator(s) or quarterback, and injuries to the QB.

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