Nuggets vs. Thunder: Everything you need to know about the 2025 NBA playoff battle

The Denver Nuggets in this era have never met a team as good as the 2024-25 Oklahoma City Thunder, and it’s going to take an incredible team effort for the Mile High City hoopers to get past this second-round series.

On Saturday, Nuggets interim head coach David Adelman said he believed it “took everything from everybody” for Denver to get past the Los Angeles Clippers in the seven-game first-round series. Now, they take on a team that is even better, one Adelman says is the best in the NBA.

The Thunder became just the eighth team in league history to win 68 or more games in a season, and five of those went on to win the NBA finals. Unlike the Nuggets, they got through the first round with ease and have been resting for more than a week since sweeping the Grizzlies. Not only are the Thunder great, but their top player, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is likely the strongest this core of the Nuggets has ever faced in the playoffs. In fact, SGA is expected to claim the MVP over Nikola Jokic at some point during the seven-game series between their two teams. Last year, SGA finished runner-up to Jokic in voting as the Nuggets’ big man captured his third edition of the award.

This is the third straight year and sixth time in seven seasons the Nuggets have advanced to the second round. Last summer, things ended in a disaster when the Nuggets blew a 20-point lead in Game 7 of Round 2 against the Wolves. Two summers ago was the opposite, when the Nuggets went all the way to win their first title in franchise history. The Thunder are looking to reach new heights for their franchise. They also went home in Round 2 last year, getting dragged by Dallas, but they’re far better this season thanks to a few big pickups and a year of improvement from the young squad.

It all sets up a duel of the league’s two best players and possibly the West’s two best teams that Las Vegas thinks OKC will win.

Summary of the Thunder

The Thunder have gotten better each of the past four seasons, executing a quick rebuild around SGA that has the three-time All-Star set with a supporting cast and plenty of draft picks to trade for years to come. Where many said OKC was a year too early last summer, tying the Nuggets with 57 wins atop of the West, they came back and loaded up for this season.

The team added former Nuggets big Isaiah Hartenstein via free agency and traded for former champion 3-and-D stopper Alex Caruso. The two were the final touches on the NBA’s best defensive team by rating of the last three years at 107.5 points allowed per 100 possessions.. More impressive is how much better they were at stopping their foes than other teams, with only seven teams having better relative single-season defensively since Bill Russell’s Celtics teams of the 1960s.

OKC’s league-best defense was highlighted by holding opponents to 43.6% shooting, while recording 10.3 steals and 21.1 deflections per game a contest and allowing just 42 points per game in the paint. All of those marks were tops in the NBA. They also drew more charges and picked up more loose balls than anyone while blocking the second-most shots. OKC held opponents to fewer than 106 points more often than not, while teams like the Nuggets scored 121 points a game in a league with exploding offenses.

Of the 66 times a team was held to 89 or fewer points this season in the NBA, the Thunder are responsible for five of those outings, including the Nuggets’ lowest scoring game of the season at just 87 points.

While SGA is a supergiant that energizes the Thunder attack, and we’ll get to him, it’s what surrounds him that makes the team so good. The Canadian isn’t a slouch himself on defense, but it’s their ability to interchange stout and athletic wings that does the dirty work on that end. Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort, and Caruso represent a perimeter nightmare of arms, quickness and smart decision making. Add the former second overall pick in seven-footer Chet Holmgren and fellow big man Hartenstein, and the Thunder have the size to meet anyone at the rim as well. Holmgren’s 2.2 blocks would be third-best in the league had he played enough games to qualify.

And somehow it doesn’t stop there. There’s a wave of a few more standout role players led by Aaron Wiggins, who does all the small things for this team. There’s also sharpshooter Isaiah Joe, who has hit over 40% of his threes each of the last three seasons. And there’s another Jaylin Williams, a backup big who was one of 14 players this season with at least three triple-doubles.

All of these waves the Thunder throw at teams lead to more energy on defense and for their star. SGA played 30 or fewer minutes in 19 games this season. OKC was 18-1 in those contests because his reduction in time played mostly came when he was sitting in the fourth quarter as his team had already blown out their foe. Larger, the Thunder were actually 30-1 this season when SGA played 33:35 minutes or fewer, which is just a hair under his average. Basically, almost half of OKC’s wins this season came in games where their MVP wasn’t taxed late. For comparison, when Jokic played about a minute under his average, the Nuggets were 17-6 in those 23 contests.

Thunder Projected Starting Five

G: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
W: Luguentz Dort
W: Jalen Williams
B: Isaiah Hartenstein
B: Chet Holmgren

Star of the Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, guard, 6-6, 76 GP, 32.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 6.4 APG, 51.9% FG/37.5% 3FG/89.8% FT

The likely winner of this year’s MVP award and author of one of the best seasons by a guard, SGA has become a scoring force over the past three seasons. His strong drives, ability to get to the free throw line and improving three-point shot lead to his giant scoring output. He paces the NBA and then some with 20.6 drives a game and was second to just DeMar DeRozan in makes from the mid-range. Only Giannis Antetokounmpo, whose teams were encouraged to put at the line given his 61.7% hit rate from the stripe, shot more free throws (10.6) than SGA’s 8.8 a night. And the 26-year-old hits 90% of his shots from the line.

SGA drew the second-most shooting fouls. Braun is the Nuggets’ only real option at the point of attack. Braun only committed 92 shooting fouls this season, which isn’t too bad given his nightly matchups, but MPJ also committed 92 against less good weapons. Even worse was Julian Strawther’s 87 shooting fouls committed because he played about half the minutes as Braun and Porter. It’s one of the many stats that show the world of hurt Denver could be in when Braun is off the floor. The good news for Nuggets fans is that Braun has gotten much better on defense, specifically at screen navigating, as the year went along, and he took on much more leadership on that end.

SGA is a master at pick and roll, scoring 1.1 points per possession, over his 726 recorded attempts this year in that playstyle. That’s third-best among all players with over 100 attempts, behind Tyrese Haliburton and Payton Pritchard. The guard is able to manipulate opponents using his teammates while eventually getting back to his own scoring.

While SGA has an awesome group around him, he can get it done himself. Only James Harden played more possessions in isolation. His 1.1 points per possession in iso over his 533 recorded attempts was third-best among players with over 100 possessions this season in ISO, behind Kevin Durant and Zach LaVine.

SGA will also use his 6-11 wingspan to disrupt the Nuggets on offense, so any thoughts of wearing him out on one end to impact his scoring are just not realistic.

Series X-factor for the Thunder: Chet Holmgren

The Thunder lost just four games this season when both Holmgren and Hartenstein played, one of which was against the Nuggets in March. The lanky big from Gonzaga will be the key cog in a defensive recipe that’s proven to slow Jokic down in the playoffs.

That strategy, or the Jokic rules, starts with putting one stout player on the MVP with a free safety roamer doubling on post moves and packing the paint. Hartenstein will likely get Jokic to start and Holmgren will probably roam off Gordon and Westbrook. Holmgren will also be one of the many Thunder players who will be responsible for clogging passing lanes. It’s a strategy that worked for the Suns in 2021, when Cam Johnson and Mikal Bridges surrounded the big man while DeAndre Ayton used his athleticism to keep up with Joker’s footwork. When Hartenstein’s physicality won’t cut it, Holmgren can spend some time on Jokic straight up, defending him with more above-the-rim presence.

Holmgren has only played in 132 NBA games of meaning to this point, including the playoffs. The Thunder are an absurd 93-35 in those games. It’s unlikely to happen given he’s only fouled out of one of those games and he only picked up five fouls once this season and once in the playoffs, but the Nuggets should try to use Holmgren’s shot-blocking against him and hope he gets into foul trouble.

When Holmgren is on the floor, he’s 15 points, 8 rebounds, two assists and two blocks a game on 49/38/75 shooting splits. The Thunder offense was about four points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor and the defense remained elite, just changing its shape.

Nuggets Projected Starting Five

G: Jamal Murray
G: Christian Braun
F: Michael Porter Jr.
F: Aaron Gordon
C: Nikola Jokic

Series X-factor for the Nuggets: Aaron Gordon

Coming off a matchup where he scored the most points among the 11 series he’s played in his playoff career, Gordon, at 19 a game against the Clippers, will need to be just as good against the Thunder.

Gordon will need to do all of the following for the Nuggets:

• Match OKC’s double big lineup
• Hold down the big spot when Jokic is off the floor
• Become a secondary playmaker to alleviate the ball pressure put on Murray
• Finish at an elite level to alleviate double teams on Jokic
• Shoot threes at a serviceable level to provide floor spacing
• Continue his tirade on the offensive glass, where he collected 23 rebounds against the Clippers
• Guard All-Star forward Jalen Williams at times
• Become an SGA stopper for several possessions a game
• And somehow probably more as the series progresses

Gordon will need to bring everything in his toolbox and use his weapons at an elite level for the Nuggets to win this series. It’s a lot to ask of one man, but Mr. Nugget is a supercharged role player with outsized talent for his role on some nights. Against the Thunder, his additive play can be the single thing that differentiates a Denver upset and a quick exit.

Gordon did not get much action against OKC this season as his multiple leg injuries held him back in those matchups. Maybe not having this year’s tape against the Thunder can be a small benefit to the Nuggets.

What to expect from Nikola Jokic

Jokic became the third player ever to average a triple-double for a season, finishing with marks of 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds and 10.3 assists per game. Somehow, the three-time MVP got even better in 2024-25, responsible for creating 56 points per game, the highest mark in the NBA, meaning 46% of Denver’s points this season, the fourth-best offense, was because of Jokic. If you count just when the big man was on the floor, the Nuggets had the best offense in NBA history this year.

Jokic is the only player to ever place in the top 10 in all of points, rebounds and assists, finishing in the top three with all marks while leading the NBA in steals a night.

Jokic is going to have to be the best player in this series, but at the very least, he’ll get his numbers. He’s the best in the NBA at scoring and diming from both the post and elbows. Unlike in his matchup in Round 1 against Ivica Zubac, whom he was hesitant to take to the post during Round 1, Jokic should be going down low on the slightly smaller combo of Chet and iHart. The former is skinnier and the latter is a bit shorter. Against OKC this year, Jokic generated 1.28 points per possession; that number jumped to a wild 1.47  PPP when he was hard doubled. Part of this is thanks to some hot shooting in a small sample size, but it’s still notable.

In the playoffs against the Clippers, Jokic tallied 24 points, 11.6 rebounds and 10.1 assists on 50/45/70 shooting splits over the seven games. Jokic was actually fantastic on defense, maybe playing his best ever on that end during the postseason. The big fella averaged 4.1 deflections and 2.3 steals per game. He defended 64 shots within six feet, the most of any player in the playoffs so far, and the Clippers shot 6.6% worse than their typical average on those attempts.

It answered an interesting question of how Jokic defends because he has not always had the energy to exert himself at that end during the regular season. He will likely get active at the level of the screen near SGA, using his amazing hands to deflect and steal passes. This covers up some of his rim protection issues, as the Nuggets use MPJ and Gordon to rotate down. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Thunder try to get Jokic isolated on SGA, though this will be hard to do when iHart or Dort is in the game since the Nuggets will likely live with their threes.

Jokic will have to alleviate the pressure that’s certain to come for Murray, Gordon, Russell Westbrook and whoever else brings the ball up the floor. The Thunder will likely try to turn him into a playmaker at times and dare some Nuggets role players to hit shots. Jokic took 18 threes against the Thunder this season, but only made five, as their season series progressed, OKC was a bit more keen to pick him up from behind the arc. Still, Jokic had the best three-point season of his career at 41.7% — only brought down by the fact that he took 22 shots from beyond half court and still somehow made two of them. When at a distance, Jokic was the fifth-best spot-up shooter in the league this season and was second-best at all three-point shots from above the break, which will make some switches of Denver’s pick-and-pop game a must. And that opens up some screening angles and cuts, where Jokic led the league in screen assists and threw the second-most assists to rim shots while diming out a league-best mark in hockey assists. If they guard all of that, Jokic can then just take a smaller defender into the post, where, again, he led the league in scoring. He did this late in the Clippers series on mismatches with James Harden and earlier on with Kris Dunn. The Thunder will likely take more risks to avoid these situations as they fly around.

Unlikely Round 1, where the Clippers were a rugged rebounding unit led by a glass cleaner in Zubac, the Thunder are just okay at this aspect of the same. Even against the league’s fourth-best rebounder, Jokic, the third-best rebounder this year, had a 20-rebound effort. Jokic will be a tree against bushes at times, but when he’s met with the Thunder’s bigs, Jokic was fourth-best in the NBA with 5.4 contest rebounds snagged a game. His second chance points will be huge against OKC as they’ll fly around and contest a lot of shots.

How the Nuggets can beat the Thunder

The Nuggets have gotten back to working the Murray-Jokic two-man game a few times during Adelman’s first 10 games on the job. Spacing and shooting around this will be essential against this aggressive Thunder defense. More important might be hanging onto the rock, as the Thunder’s 22 points a game off turnovers was best in the league. The Nuggets’ sharing playstyle leads to a lot of errant passes and Denver was in the bottom half of the league this season in giveaways.

Jokic’s supercomputer brain will bait the Thunder into taking risks on defense that normally doom other star players. Just when they think they’ve got him, he’s going to dish out some insane passes. This means Homlgren and Williams may help off Porter or Gordon at times to create chaos.

Since the Thunder do not have a weak link on defense, everyone will have to make themselves a threat. Porter shot 40% from three this season while Gordon boosted his mark all the way up to 43.6%. AG’s shooting improvements have been so drastic that he’s actually the first player in league history to shoot at least 10% better from both deep and the line in the same season. AG will need to keep making shots and pressure the rim more like he did a season ago, when 11% more of his attempts were dunks. Gordon won’t be the only rim attacker needed as Braun will need to join the fun, and so too will sixth-man Russell Westbrook, who added a 43% corner three shot to his already downhill game — hitting 13 of 31 from deep against the Clippers.

A break for the Nuggets defense is that the Thunder shoot the seventh fewest threes from the corner a game. That’s something the Nuggets allow at the sixth-worst rate in the league, as that’s where Denver’s defense seems to collapse.

The Clippers are the best defensive rebounding team by percentage in the league; they snagged the most rebounds in the NBA this season, and this series may come down to winning the war of the glass.

Stat of the series

The Nuggets are one of just seven teams that can even claim a win over the Thunder since a week before Thanksgiving (Lakers, Rockets, Timberwolves, Warriors, Mavericks and Cavaliers)

Another few things you should know about Nuggets vs. Thunder

The last time the Nuggets met the Thunder in the playoffs was way back in 2011. Then, OKC ended an era of Nuggets basketball with a win in five games, led in part by Russell Westbrook, who got his first playoff series win. That’s the only matchup in the postseason between the teams from these cities, though one of the Nuggets’ best moments came before the Thunder moved south. Back when they were the Seattle Supersonics in 1994, Dikembe Mutombo led the Nuggets to the NBA’s first No. 8 seed over a No. 1 seed upset. Can the Nuggets pull an upset of the same franchise with the same seed as they honor Mutombo with his number on the floor just months after the legend passed away?

This isn’t Westbrook’s first playoff series against the Thunder since leaving OKC, but it is his first time he’ll be returning to the city for playoff games. Westbrook faced off with the Thunder when he was with the Rockets in 2020, but that came in the bubble. Westbrook is arguably the best player in club history since they moved to the Sooner State. He’s still loved by the fanbase, and he loves the city still. It’s almost the opposite of the last series he played, where he wanted to prove the Clippers wrong and something to his hometown. Westbrook was a solid sixth man in Round 1, playing in six of the games, scoring nearly 14 points per contest.

The only two other player connections between these two teams are Kenrich Williams and Hartenstein, who each briefly played for the Nuggets. Williams played in Summer League for Denver, while Hartenstein played 30 games during the 2020-21 season before getting moved at the deadline. Only after that trade did Hartenstein become a real-deal NBA player. Both Peyton Watson and Hunter Tyson were taken with Thunder draft picks, though the Nuggets instructed OKC to take those players.

Speaking of the NBA Draft, after Murray left Kentucky, De’Aaron Fox became their star player and he was a one-and-done, clearing the way for SGA.

John Calipari recruited both SGA and Murray out of Canada. Both players were on the Canadian Olympic Team this past summer in Paris. Dort was also on that team and both Thunder players outperformed Murray.

Since 2000, there have been 15 series in which a team coming off a sweep faced a team in the next round that had just played a seven-game series. The rested team, which is the Thunder in this case, is 14-1. The one outlier is from the 2013 NBA Finals, when Ray Allen changed the course of league history in Game 6.

The Nuggets’ 31 assists per game is the third-highest assist average in NBA history. They also averaged 58.5 points in the painted area. That’s the most paint points a team has averaged since the NBA began publicly tracking this data in 1996-97. While Denver pounded the paint to success, look for the Clippers to snatch some of those passes as they led the league in steals.

Where the Nuggets have had the best core in every series they’ve played in the past few seasons, besides maybe the Clippers, the Thunder have three different four-man lineups that are better than Denver’s best four-man look.

Schedule of the series

May 5: Game 1, 7:30 (TNT), Oklahoma City
May 7: Game 2, 7:30 (TNT), Oklahoma City
May 9: Game 3, 8:00 (ESPN), Denver
May 11: Game 4, 1:30 (ABC), Denver
May 13: Game 5, TBD (TNT), Oklahoma City *
May 15: Game 6, TBD (ESPN), Denver*
May 18: Game 7, TBD (TBD), Oklahoma City *

Series odds

-900 Los Angeles, +610 Denver