NBA MVP frontrunner hurt, shelved for weeks

Another injury could have a big impact on the NBA's MVP race as the current frontrunner went down with an injury on Tuesday

BY JAKE SHAPIRO

Feb 4, 2026, 1:10 PM

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Another injury could have a big impact on the NBA’s MVP race as the current frontrunner went down with an injury on Tuesday.

The Oklahoma City Thunder announced that reigning MVP and the favorite for this year’s award, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, will be out through the All-Star break with an abdominal strain. In a way, his misfortune comes at a lucky time, given OKC has just 10 games left in the entire month of February, five before and five after the break. That’s because the team, like many in the NBA, will not play for eight days around the All-Star Game.

SGA has played in 49 of the Thunder’s 51 games this year, as the reigning champions again pace the NBA in wins. He could miss 15 more games and still maintain eligibility to win MVP. No reports suggest he’ll miss that many, which again is helped by the All-Star Game, in which he was selected to play but will now probably not partake.

It also means OKC will have a pretty easy time hanging onto first in the West with a six-game lead on the Spurs and seven on the Nuggets. Denver has fallen back because of the injury to Nikola Jokic, who was the MVP frontrunner at the time. Denver stayed afloat with a 10-6 record without the three-time MVP, but has gone 1-2 since he returned as they work him back up to speed.

Jokic can only miss one more game the rest of the season to maintain eligibility to win MVP as well as other postseason awards. With that, his current odds have fallen quite a bit, but he’s still got the second-best chance, according to the books. And even though Gilgeous-Alexander will remain eligible to win MVP through his injury, the setback increases Jokic’s chances at the award.

SGA is still a whopping -220 to repeat as MVP, but Jokic has climbed to +350 to win the award for a fourth time.

Meanwhile, Luka Doncic and Cade Cunningham are still considered big-time longshots, at over +1000 to win the award.

Even with SGA still eligible, the question of the difference in impact between him and Jokic will be more evenly considered if he’s only able to play 70 games to Jokic’s 66.

It seems like every year with Joker, the MVP race could come down to the season’s last days.