What you need to know about how the Nuggets matchup with the Suns

The team who comes out of this year's western conference is most likely to be the winner of the Nuggets next series, this one with the Suns

BY JAKE SHAPIRO

Apr 27, 2023, 2:17 PM

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Photo by Justin Tafoya/Getty Images

The team who comes out of this year’s western conference is most likely to be the winner of the Denver Nuggets next series, this one with the Phoenix Suns.

For the second time in three seasons, these teams are squaring off in the second round. A lot has changed on both sides since 2021 but 2023’s edition could be the most hyped matchup of the two who have been playing against each other since 1976. Denver finished the regular season with the west’s best record while the Suns are favorites to make it to the NBA Finals.

Summary

The Phoenix Suns went 45-37 this season as a run-of-the-mill team in the west, who survived a lot of roster turnovers and big injuries. Devin Booker was limited to fewer than 60 games but he has now been paired with Kevin Durant, who the Suns traded for midseason. Booker led the Suns to the NBA Finals in 2021, losing to the Bucks and Durant is one of the best scorers in league history. To make the deal with Brooklyn for KD, the Suns sent out many draft picks and three key players.

Because of the big trade the Suns are shallow but they’ve also got a fearsome foursome, with future Hall of Famer Chris Paul and former first overall pick Deandre Ayton joining Booker and Durant. The team is nearly impossible to judge but they are 12-1 since the trade in games that Durant has played.

Projected Starting Five

PG: Chris Paul
SG: Devin Booker
SF: Torrey Craig
PF: Kevin Durant
C: Deandre Ayton

Stars

Kevin Durant, forward, 6-10, 47 GP, 29.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 5.0 APG, 56% FG/4o% 3FG/92% FT
Devin Booker, guard, 6-5, 53 GP, 27.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 5.5 APG, 49% FG/35% 3FG/86% FT

Booker and Durant paired up to lead Team USA to gold at the Tokyo Olympics. In the first round of the playoffs against a hobbled Clippers team, the two were marvelous. Each played over 43 minutes a game, combining to score 66 points of the Suns 122 per game. They chipped in 12.6 rebounds, 12.6 assists while each shot 46% from three.

Even at 34 years old and coming off an Achilles injury a few years ago, Durant is as good as he’s ever been. The once-ironman has been dealing with injuries for a few years now and hasn’t played Nikola Jokic since May 8, 2021. After his superteam in Brooklyn busted up, Durant asked to join the Valley’s hoops team. It’s his fifth city in his storied career as he chases his third title.

Booker is seeking redemption after his Suns blew a 2-0 lead against the Bucks in the finals and then were destroyed by the Mavericks in the playoffs last season. The Suns are under new ownership and they shipped out some of the Suns mainstays to give Booker his best shot alongside Durant.

X-factor: Chris Paul

It’s strange to call one of the best point guards of all-time an X-factor but CP3 truly is. What the Suns do or don’t get from Paul will define their fortunes in this series. Paul will turn 38 during this matchup with the Nuggets and he is 1-1 against Denver in playoff series, with matchups being in 2009 and 2021. Paul is known as a playoff choker and has been injured for his teams at some of their biggest moments. He’s one of the best operators of the pick and roll, which killed the Nuggets two seasons ago as he went for 25.5 points, 5.0 rebounds and 10.3 assists per game during the sweep. Paul still led the NBA in assists per game last year with over 10, but his scoring is beginning to fall off, if he can turn the clocks back the Nuggets are in big trouble.

How the Nuggets can beat them

Size, speed strength, star power… and depth. The Nuggets are huge, with bigger bodies than the Suns at nearly every position on the court, Denver scored five more points in the paint per game than Phoenix during the first round and the difference between the two during the regular season was the Nuggets at fourth-best (55 per game) and the Suns at sixth-worse (46 per game.) Jokic is far bigger and better than Ayton and Aaron Gordon is more of a traditional power forward who can pound inside on Durant.

The Nuggets 16.2 fastbreak points per game were fifth-best in the NBA this year while the Suns were dead last at 14.8. This has evened out in round one of the playoffs with the two scoring nearly the same amount of transition points. Meanwhile, the two were nearly tied in pace as well. Still, the Nuggets are a bit more athletic than the Suns with noticeable advantages with Jamal Murray against Paul and Bruce Brown against the Suns bench.

Speaking of the Suns, only six players for them played more than 11 minutes per game in their first-round series. They have nearly no depth and their fifth starter and sixth man bring a revolving door of question marks. While the Nuggets have struggled most of the season to get their bench working, Michael Malone does roll seven deep pretty confidently and has some good options for eight. Denver is simply way deeper than the Suns.

Yes, Durant and Booker, and Paul. That’s scary. At this point, the Nuggets still have the best player in this matchup and that’s Jokic. And in basketball, it’s hard to beat the team with the best player.

Another few things you should know

The Nuggets are 3-10 all-time against the Suns in the playoffs, only once having won a series and having been swept the last two matchups—2021 and 1989.

The Suns hosted the Nuggets twice at the tail-end of the season and won both games… but basically, nobody played for the Nuggets and Denver still took both games into crunch time with a chance to win. Malone both didn’t show the team’s hand and twice proved Denver’s depth is ready to rally against the valley. On top of that those two Suns wins make the 12-1 record with Durant look a bit flimsy, and diving into it makes it worse. The Clippers two best players missed nearly the entire first-round series while the regular season wins included some terrible teams.

Torrey Craig has made it at least to the conference finals in two of the past three playoffs. Three runs ago, that was with Denver as he played an important three-and-defense role in pushing the Nuggets to overcome two 3-1 defeats. Then Craig helped the Suns beat his old Nuggets the next season and currently he’s one of the hottest shooters in the playoffs.

Meanwhile Nuggets’ Brown and Jeff Green were teammates of Durant in Brooklyn. Green was taken three picks after Durant in 2007 and the two are the last active players who suited up for the Seattle Sonics.

Schedule

Game 1: Saturday 4/29 Denver, 6 or 8 p.m.
Game 2: Monday 5/1, Denver, 6 p.m.
Game 3: Friday 5/5, Phoenix
Game 4: Sunday 5/7, Phoenix
Game 5: Tuesday 5/9*, Denver
Game 6: Thursday 5/11*, Phoenix
Game 7: Sunday 5/14*, Denver