Nuggets’ offseason pushes them out of bookies favorites for title

The last time the Denver Nuggets went under on the bookies’ win total was 10 years ago, and many are juicing the team to play below expectation for the first time in the Nikola Jokic era in the 2024-25 season.

For their part, the bookmakers already have the Nuggets winning way fewer games this season than they did last and have diminished the team’s chances at a title by quite a lot. Denver entered last season as the reigning champions, tied for the best odds to capture the Larry O’Brien Trophy. While their quest ended with a second-round knockout in a blown Game 7 lead at home, the team did easily hit their regular season win total over. In going 57-25, the Nuggets tied their franchise mark for wins in an NBA season.

Bookies were actually pretty bullish on the Nuggets heading into this summer, still having them as second-most likely to win the Larry but the offseason really soured many’s prognostications for Denver. The Nuggets lost starting shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to a free agency deal with the Orlando Magic. The team traded backup point guard Reggie Jackson and lost infrequent bench players Collin Gillespie and Jay Huff. What the Nuggets gained is former MVP Russell Westbrook to anchor the second unit alongside bench big Dario Saric. The team also gains valued bench player Vlatko Cancar, who missed all of last year with an injury but exciting first-round pick DaRon Holmes II will miss this season with an injury suffered at Summer League.

Basically, the Nuggets went from a championship-proven shooting guard that fits into their starting five to relying on a younger group of unproven players. The most important trio is Christian Braun, Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther, who will all need to assume bigger roles for the Nuggets to capture a second ring.

Denver Nuggets odds

Win total: 50.5

Championship odds: +1,100

NBA Title odds

Boston Celtics: +310
Oklahoma City Thunder: +650
New York Knicks: +750
Philadelphia 76ers: +1000
Minnesota Timberwolves: +1000
Denver Nuggets: +1100
Dallas Mavericks: +1100
Milwaukee Bucks: +1400
Phoenix Suns: +2000

What the odds mean

The Nuggets have gone over on their win total in each of the last 10 seasons, every year Jokic has played in the NBA. This season seems to be the least serious regular season of Michael Malone’s tenure. The team proved over the last two years that rest down the stretch is more valuable than seeding. Denver was pretty open about running out of gas in the playoffs while touting their rest strategy the year before as a reason they went 16-4 in the postseason. In addition, the Nuggets have proven they’re really good on the road in the playoffs, going 8-2 over their last 10 playoff games away from Ball Arena. It’s in this shadow that the Nuggets enter a season where the biggest focuses are on health, fatigue and figuring out the lower part of the rotation rather than testing the players at the top.

This seems like it will be the first time Jokic, who has never played fewer than 69 games even in shortened seasons, will get some serious rest if the Nuggets can afford it. That thinking is likely why Jokic is not the favorite for taking home a fourth MVP. Likewise, Jamal Murray should get some serious health as the Nuggets worry about his knees and stamina. And then there’s Michael Porter Jr., who played all but one game last season and that’s just because he forgot his shoes—he’s well known as an injury risk and the Nuggets may want to play it safer with him as well as the uber-athletic Aaron Gordon, who turned 29 in September.

All of that will lead to the Nuggets relying even heavier on Braun, Watson, Strawther, Westbrook and Saric on nights the core four rests.

And yet the Nuggets still have the third-highest win total prop in the West according to most books. Plus the team is in many’s top six for the title odds. Because Jokic is still the best player in the game, nearly taking down the American Olympic Team this summer en route to Bronze for Serbia. If Jokic can do that with non-league players, remember what he was able to do with skilled players like Murray, Porter, Gordona, and a reasonably performing supporting cast—it’s still a title-level team.

Related

Nuggets’ Christian Braun: ‘We’ve got everything we need’ to win a championshipMPJ pinpoints where the Nuggets’ title window crackedNuggets show off new dual-toned home floorPeyton Watson thanks Nuggets fans, teammates and front officeThe Nuggets’ problems run much deeper than one addition can fixThe illusion that the Nuggets are a contender won’t survive the playoffs