Nikola Jokic says what Nuggets fans have yelled about for years, and it may explain the end of his apex

Nikola Jokic said what Nuggets fans have been yelling at their TVs for years, explaining something truly fascinating in the context of all of this apex talk

BY JAKE SHAPIRO

Nov 5, 2026, 5:03 PM

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Watch: Is Bill Simmons right about Nikola Jokic's decline? | Shapiro and Piro | 29 mins

On March 10, the morning after a loss in Oklahoma City, I said something on “Shapiro and Piro” that I didn’t fully believe.

“I think Nikola Jokic might have peaked,” I said.

We called the segment “Intrusive Thoughts,” the ideas that pop into your head after a bad loss that you don’t want to say out loud. Mine was that Jokic had already played the best game of his career, the 56-point triple-double against Minnesota on Christmas, two days before his knee injury, and that he had been “just a little bit off” ever since. He was still terrific, just a little less of a force than I’d hoped.

My co-host, Aniello Piro, called it a fair thought. Eight months later and into a new season, it isn’t an intrusive thought anymore. It’s the main question of this year’s Nuggets group.

On Tuesday, Bill Simmons put it bluntly on his podcast: “Apex Joker … that guy might be gone.”

On Thursday, ESPN’s Ben Golliver wrote that Denver can’t survive a down year from Jokic, and he had the numbers to back up the big fella’s step back. Through seven games, Jokic is shooting 50.4% from the field, his worst since 2017-18, and a career-low 21.9% from 3-point range. His 26.1 player efficiency rating is his lowest since his rookie season.

The more telling numbers are about where his shots come from. Only 16% of Jokic’s shots have come at the rim, a career low. His average shot is 12 feet from the basket, tied for the longest of his career. His free-throw rate and offensive rebound rate are both down sharply and on pace for career lows.

Put plainly, the best post player of his generation isn’t living in the post like he used to. Two years ago, Jokic was tracked for 9.8 post ups per game. He’s still leading the league in post ups early on but the small sample size has halved his post-ups per game, down to 5.1.

After Wednesday’s 128-109 rout of the Toronto Raptors, in which Jokic had 32 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists in 30 minutes, Jokic said what Nuggets fans have been yelling at their TVs for years, explaining something truly fascinating in the context of an ESPN story that came our hours later.

“I think defender on the low post, officials are letting them do much more, be much more physical, much more pushing, much grabbing than if you’re playing outside,” Jokic said. “I think that’s why players are not willing to play in a low post anymore.”

He kept going.

“You’re going to get a foul and it’s never going to get called, and you’re getting tired and tired after possession,” Jokic said. “I think in probably next five, 10 years, low post is not going to even be out there.”

Jokic never mentioned his slow start, ESPN or the debate about his prime. He didn’t have to. Compare his words with the numbers. Fewer shots at the rim. Fewer trips to the free-throw line. Fewer offensive rebounds. More jumpers from farther out. That’s a player who has decided, consciously or not, that wrestling on the block hasn’t been worth the beating to start this season.

I’ve watched almost every game Jokic has played in his NBA career, and the whistle has been a sore spot in Denver for his entire career. As Minnesota and Oklahoma City got more physical with him and the officiating didn’t change, we’ve said in Nuggets Nation for years that it would wear him down. Now he’s saying it himself with his shot diet, touches and the words coming out of his mouth.

“In today’s NBA, I think there is no size advantage,” Jokic said, pointing to how much more physical post defenders are allowed to be than defenders on the perimeter.

He made a point of saying he isn’t complaining.

“No, no, I’m not blaming about the calls,” he said. “I like to wrestle. … I’ve been wrestling my brother since… so I like to wrestle. I like to push and grab.”

That’s true to Jokic — a guy who didn’t start flopping until he watched LeBron James up close for two playoff series and adjusted to doing so. Since Jokic’s lobbying has turned into a survival tactic based on his smart instincts at best and foul baiting at worst. But it comes back to the calls he doesn’t get as he collects bloody scratch after bloody scratch on his arms and his legs get battered.

The timing on this talk from Jokic — on a topic he wasn’t really prompted on — is hard to ignore. He had just spent most of this decade as clearly the best player in the world while absorbing a whistle nobody else had to play through since nobody else was playing his style — the throwback to how the game has always functioned with a dominant big, of course with his flourishes of elite passing and distance shooting.

Jokic’s slow start — or decline to some — isn’t separate from what he’s saying. It’s all connected. He’s a 31-year-old coming off a knee injury who has appeared to lose some weight, diminishing his strength and in turn giving him less incentive to fight through holds on the block. The less he fights, the more his game drifts outside, where it decreases in efficiency both because of the simple fact of shooting farther from the goal and because of the arm injuries Jokic has suffered over the years to his wrists and elbows.

Jokic not wanting to spam post moves as much anymore may be a symptom of the apex ending. It may also be one of the reasons the apex is ending.

Wednesday showed both sides of it. Before the Raptors game, Denver ranked 26th in the NBA in points in the paint, according to ESPN. Then the Nuggets scored 76 there, and Jokic was the reason. Coach David Adelman made a point of getting him the ball at the elbow, where the defense has to choose between him and everybody else.

“When you catch the ball … on the elbow, the whole defense needs to, by the nature, just take one step back,” Jokic said. “I think without inside game, there is no outside game.”

Something else stood out watching the game — Jokic, who almost always passes out of double teams, went up with the ball against multiple defenders. He knew that was the Nuggets’ best shot, because defenses aren’t worried about many of the players around him. They load up on Jokic and Jamal Murray and dare everyone else to beat them. That’s why there are bodies there to defend, wrestle and ultimately foul him in the post.

Adelman has been adamant that the slump is temporary.

“This is a six-game sample size of one of the most efficient offensive basketball players that’s ever lived,” Adelman said after Monday’s loss to Portland. “I’ll die on that sword.”

He’s right that Jokic is still elite. He’ll probably average close to a triple-double again and finish as a top-five player, maybe top three. On any given night, like Wednesday, he can still be the best player on the planet.

But the point is that the Nuggets are built on the idea that Jokic will be the best player in the world most nights. So if he’s not that, Denver looks bad and in turn Jokic looks like a guy that can’t carry the heavy burden he’s tasked with.

Back in March, I said I didn’t totally believe Jokic had peaked. Now I think Simmons is largely right. Jokic isn’t washed. But the version of Jokic who was clearly the best player in basketball from 2020 to 2025, the one this franchise was built around, looks to be in the past. Some of that is age and the injuries. Some of it is the whistle he finally talked about Wednesday night. Some of it is the diminishing talent around him.

Jokic has seen the game reinvent itself before. “I think in last 10 years, basketball changed four times,” he said. “I think in five years, it’s going to change some way too.”

He says he doesn’t dwell on any of it. “I never played the game in future,” he said. “I was playing in a present.”

The Nuggets don’t have that luxury. With a decision on an extension worth up to $360 million coming next summer, they have to think about the future, and right now. Both for their season and future the Nuggets have to ask if apex Jokic is in the past.