From favorites to facing elimination: Nuggets’ odds take a massive hit

The Denver Nuggets didn’t just lose Game 4 of their first-round series against the Minnesota Timberwolves. They may have lost control of their title hopes.

At least that’s what fan reaction to the loss would say. But the oddsmakers have a different outlook.

On some sportsbooks, the Nuggets are still +138 to win the series. Those odds could change even more in Denver’s favor with Anthony Edwards sidelined for the rest of the series.

It’s not all good news, however. The Nuggets are still the underdog, as they battle Minnesota and the history books.

After falling into a 3–1 hole, Denver has gone from clear favorite to fighting for survival. Just a week ago, the Nuggets were widely expected to advance, carrying strong championship odds and the confidence of a team that’s been here before. Now, the oddsmakers are telling a completely different story.

Denver is officially in long-shot territory.

Minnesota has taken control of this series by doing exactly what most teams haven’t been able to do against Denver – disrupt everything. The Timberwolves held the Nuggets to just 34% shooting in Game 3, then followed it up by forcing another inefficient performance in Game 4, where Denver shot just 22% from beyond the three-point line. For a team that thrives on rhythm and spacing, that’s not just a slump; it’s a problem.

Jamal Murray scored 30 points in Game 4, while Nikola Jokić is still producing at an MVP level. However, Minnesota has prevailed in every other area, including defense, depth and the crucial moments that determine the outcome of playoff games.

That’s why the odds have flipped so aggressively.

Historically, teams down 3–1 in a best-of-seven series almost never come back. In the past, teams down 3-1 are 13-285. Denver has two of the 13 comebacks, with back-to-back series wins in 2020 vs the Utah Jazz and the Los Angeles Lakers. While the Nuggets aren’t just any team, the oddsmakers aren’t buying into a miracle — at least not right now.

Essentially, everything now comes down to Game 5. The Nuggets are 10-point favorites going into Monday night’s game in Denver, but that line reflects location more than momentum. Down 3–1, Denver is firmly in comeback territory.

If Denver wins, the series odds tighten quickly. A 3–2 deficit brings life back, especially with a potential Game 7 at home. But if they lose, it’s over — and the odds will have been right.

For Denver, it’s simple: Win Game 5 and reopen the door, or lose and watch both the series — and their title odds — disappear.

There are still a few variables. Injuries, especially with Wolves star Edwards sidelined, could shift things slightly. And Denver still has the most important piece in any playoff series – the best player in the world.

But right now, that hasn’t been enough.

If the Nuggets are going to pull this off, it won’t just take talent; it’ll take a complete shift. Better shooting, more production from the supporting cast and, most importantly, a way to crack a Minnesota defense that has controlled this series from the jump.

At this point, Denver isn’t just trying to win a series. They’re trying to beat the odds, flip the narrative and do something the numbers say almost never happens. And if they can’t figure it out quickly, this title run is going to end a lot sooner than anyone expected.

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