Nuggets open as heavy favorites over Timberwolves — but the line is moving

The Nuggets finished the regular season the way they wanted and the No. 3 seed means a familiar dance partner, still Denver should win

BY JAKE SHAPIRO

Apr 12, 2026, 10:04 PM

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The Denver Nuggets finished the regular season the way they wanted to — a 128-118 win at San Antonio, a 12-game winning streak, 54 wins including the most road victories in franchise history, and the No. 3 seed locked up. Now comes a familiar dance partner.

Denver will host the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round beginning Saturday at 1:30 p.m. at Ball Arena on Amazon Prime, where the Nuggets are 5.5-point favorites. It’s the third Nuggets-Wolves playoff series in four years. The two sides know each other intimately.

“We’ve played so many times over the years — playoffs, regular season. We know each other,” Adelman said after Sunday’s win. “With Tim (Connelly) over there, Chris Finch and Micah (Nori) and those guys … we know it’s going to be a battle. It always is with that team.”

The Nuggets could’ve gotten out of playing the Wolves again by losing on Sunday, but they won with their deep reserves anyway.

“You can’t duck opponents, and they didn’t want to duck us,” Adelman said. “We’re not ducking anybody.”

The oddsmakers agree that the Nuggets shouldn’t be scared.

Denver opened as a −400 series favorite and that number moved to −350 within the first hour, with Minnesota at +280.

The most likely outcome according to the books is Nuggets in five at +260. A Denver sweep sits at +400. Minnesota winning the series in any specific fashion starts at +850 and goes up from there.

Denver went 3-1 against the Wolves this season, though the lone loss came in the most recent meeting, which stung. The scar tissue from 2024 still lingers — the Game 6 blowout that was one of the worst playoff losses by margin in franchise history, followed by Minnesota erasing a 20-point deficit to steal Game 7 at Ball Arena. After that devastating exit, Denver lost all four regular-season meetings in 2024-25, including two blowouts by Minny and two collapses by the Nuggets. But this year, the Nuggets have finally played like a team that’s moved past the T-Wolves torture.

Minnesota enters the postseason limping. Anthony Edwards has played in just three of the Timberwolves’ last 14 games while managing patellofemoral pain syndrome — runner’s knee — in his right knee. He sat out Sunday’s finale. Jaden McDaniels missed six straight games earlier this month with a left knee bone bruise before returning in limited action. The Wolves rested every meaningful player on Sunday.

Edwards averaged 28.8 points in 61 games this year. When he’s right, he’s been a Nuggets killer — one of maybe five guys in the league who can match Nikola Jokic for a game. But “when he’s right” is doing a lot of heavy lifting right now. He hasn’t looked like himself in over a month, during a time the Nuggets have turned into the NBA’s top team. Edwards’ health is the single biggest variable in this series, “and it’s why the odds favor Denver more heavily than the recent history between these teams might suggest.

Meanwhile, after a year of issues, the Nuggets are finally mostly healthy and rolling, too. They’ve got their full complement of starters back after resting everyone but Jokic on Sunday. Jamal Murray already met the 65-game threshold and got extra rest. The biggest question marks are whether Aaron Gordon can hold up and whether Peyton Watson and Spencer Jones are ready — both were warming up on-court Sunday after missing the past few weeks.

Adelman said meetings begin Tuesday and preparation ramps up from there.

“I am immensely proud,” Adelman said of finishing 54-28. “To get there with all the stuff that’s gone on … it was a cool way to end the year without your best guys and still play the right way.”

“We feel good about ourselves. But so do these other teams. The Western Conference playoffs are going to be absolutely insane.”

That’s maybe the one thing we all know — buckle up.