Latest projection has Helton missing Hall of Fame by a single vote

The greatest player in Colorado Rockies history has a chance to become immortal this year. Todd Helton is trending in the right direction for being voted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in the coming class, but his shot is teetering.

This is Helton’s sixth year on the ballot and he needs 75% of votes to get into Cooperstown. Last year the legendary No. 17 just missed with 72.2% of the votes. In the 154 ballots made public thus far, Helton is carrying 83.1% of the votes. This means he’s gotten 128 votes at this point in the process, which is about two weeks from the big day. He is estimated to need 288 votes of a projected 384 ballots to reach the 75% mark—so 160 more votes for Todd. The voters who do not make their ballots public are generally a bit more stingy with their picks, meaning Helton’s share will fall on decision day.

Hence a projection that came out yesterday from the folks that track public info on Hall of Fame ballots that Helton would miss this year’s class by a single vote. Last year Helton got 281 votes, missing that class by about 10 votes.

Flip Rate updates @ 150 ballots 🗳

Highest projected finish:
Wagner 75.5% ✅
Helton 74.99% 💔
Sheffield 66.3% ❌
Beltrán 62.9% ❌
Jones 60.1% ❌

Highest No->Yes Flip Rate ⬆️
Beltrán 37.0%
Wagner 25.8%
Sheffield 25.0%
Helton 15.0%
Jones 11.1%

Highest Yes->No Drop Rate ⬇️…

— Adam Dore (@ShutTheDore) January 12, 2024

Helton is noted for his great bat at the turn of the century and he was a fantastic fielder early in his career too. Helton made five-straight All-Star Games from 2000 to 2004 and was a major player in the Rockies run to the 2007 National League pennant.

A four-time Silver Slugger, three-time Gold Glove winner and the 2000 batting title winner, Helton played 17 seasons, all with the Rockies. Helton is the all-time Rockies leader in games played, WAR, hits, home runs, doubles, walks and more. His .316/.414/.539 slashline is second only to fellow Rockies Hall of Famer Larry Walker.

Walker and Helton are the only Hall of Famers in the franchise’s nearly 30-year history, Walker was enshrined in 2020, his 10th and final year on the ballot.

Helton wrapped up his career in 2013, and a year later he was the first to have his jersey number retired by the Rockies. Helton was an instrumental part of the 2007 Rocktober team, hitting one of the biggest home runs in club history. Later in that postseason, he famously fell to one knee as the Rockies clinched their only pennant.

Results for this coming Hall of Fame class will be revealed in full on Jan. 24. Adrián Beltré is expected to make the Hall of Fame on his first ballot with Helton, Gary Sheffield, Billy Wagner and Joe Mauer (also on his first ballot) all above the public cut-line right now. Both Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones have a good chance to make it into the Hall for this class as well. Manager Jim Leyland is already slated to be part of this class.

Wagner is on the ballot for a ninth time and it’s looking like the former closer will leapfrog Helton. Wagner had 68.1% of votes last year, for his 422 career saves.

As of 150 ballots tracked, year-over-year tracking charts for Gary Sheffield (in his final year of eligibility, compared with Larry Walker's final two years on the ballot), Todd Helton, Billy Wagner and Andruw Jones: pic.twitter.com/Q6yLB1fP53

— Ryan Thibodaux (@NotMrTibbs) January 11, 2024

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